TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ SD

Playable air · 1.07×

SF @ SD

Petco Park · 4:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 8 mph slight_out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

1:10p

-2 ↑

2:10p

-3 ↑

3:10p

-4 ↑

4:10p

-5 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at -2

Best of game Ty France conv 25 · vs Roupp ⟷ Bryce Eldridge conv 16 · vs King → edge: Ty France

ATTACK Landen Roupp RHP · SF

leak 76

0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ty France +525 D ●●●●○

2 Jackson Merrill +525 D ●●●●○

3 Manny Machado +400 D ●●●●○

FADE Michael King RHP · SD

leak 61

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryce Eldridge +400 D ●●○○○

2 Rafael Devers +320 C ●●○○○

3 Willy Adames +400 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ty France: 11.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers vs King Edge +320 0.228 · 92.2 · 9.8% 15.4% 13.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· SD Ty France ✶ vs Roupp +525 0.247 · 92.4 · 7.4% 23.1% 26.0% F B O D 48

· SD Jackson Merrill HOT vs Roupp Edge +525 0.153 · 90.0 · 7.0% 33.3% 12.4% F B O D 38

· SD Manny Machado vs Roupp +400 0.221 · 90.6 · 7.2% 23.1% 22.5% F B O D 47

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs King Edge +400 0.196 · 92.5 · 10.4% 15.4% 16.2% F B O D 48

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs King +400 0.197 · 87.6 · 8.6% 7.7% 10.7% F B O D 43

· SF Heliot Ramos COOL vs King +400 0.165 · 92.0 · 10.9% 7.7% 8.8% F B O D 42

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs King Edge +950 0.132 · 87.0 · 4.5% 8.3% 6.1% F B O D 29

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Roupp Edge +750 0.181 · 87.8 · 5.6% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 34

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Roupp +750 0.099 · 88.1 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 26

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs King Edge +850 0.119 · 86.0 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 28

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Roupp Edge +850 0.074 · 87.9 · 4.8% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 23

· SF Luis Arraez vs King Edge — 0.118 · 87.0 · 2.5% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.2% ← leak OFF 28.3% BRK 24.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L Edge

12.9% 8.9% 9.5% 11.3% C 50 +320

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

13.3% 18.5% 6.2% 12.8% D 48 +400

136

Willy Adames R

8.2% 11.5% 9.6% 8.9% D 43 +400

146

Heliot Ramos R

11.8% 15.4% 17.2% 14.0% D 42 +400

212

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.6% 0.0% 2.8% 2.4% D 29 +950

214

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.8% 0.0% 4.9% 2.8% D 28 +850

222

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.2% usage) carries King's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.0% ← leak BRK 25.8% OFF 20.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Ty France R

11.8% 12.1% 7.4% 11.3% D 48 +525

Manny Machado R

13.7% 6.9% 7.7% 11.0% D 47 +400

167

Jackson Merrill L Edge

12.7% 10.9% 6.2% 10.7% D 38 +525

187

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.2% 4.3% 1.9% 6.7% D 34 +750

215

Xander Bogaerts R

7.6% 2.6% 4.0% 5.9% D 26 +750

220

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

5.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.9% D 23 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.0% usage) carries Roupp's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Eldridge France Machado Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs Roupp fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Ty France +525 · 48

Manny Machado +400 · 47

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 8 mph slight_out 86°F open

-2

↑

8 mph · slight_out

84°F

1:10p · peak

-2

↑

8 mph · slight_out

86°F

2:10p

-3

↑

8 mph · slight_out

86°F

3:10p

-4

↑

9 mph · cross

85°F

4:10p

-5

↑

8 mph · cross

84°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 86°F, wind 8 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael King · RHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 50 C +320 · 74 0.228 92.2 9.8% 26.1%vs RHP 399 17.5% 15.4% 13.8% 38

2 Bryce Eldridge 48 D +400 · 90 0.196 92.5 10.4% 23.1%vs RHP 396 20.0% 15.4% 16.2% 27

3 Willy Adames 43 D +400 COOL 136 0.197 87.6 8.6% 20.5%vs RHP 388 15.0% 7.7% 10.7% 32

4 Heliot Ramos 42 D +400 COOL 146 0.165 92.0 10.9% 18.9%vs RHP 407 10.8% 7.7% 8.8% 36

5 Jung Hoo Lee 29 D +950 COOL 212 0.132 87.0 4.5% 9.4%vs RHP 375 5.0% 8.3% 6.1% 37

6 Drew Gilbert 28 D +850 HOT 214 0.119 86.0 4.8% 12.9%vs RHP 398 3.2% 0.0% 6.4% 21

7 Luis Arraez 22 D — WARM 222 0.118 87.0 2.5% 3.1%vs RHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 41

vs Landen Roupp · RHP 0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France ✶ 48 D +525 WARM 89 0.247 92.4 7.4% 33.3%vs RHP 394 18.2% 23.1% 26.0% 41

2 Manny Machado 47 D +400 WARM 97 0.221 90.6 7.2% 28.8%vs RHP 397 20.0% 23.1% 22.5% 41

3 Jackson Merrill 38 D +525 HOT 167 0.153 90.0 7.0% 17.9%vs RHP 409 13.6% 33.3% 12.4% 39

4 Gavin Sheets 34 D +750 COOL 187 0.181 87.8 5.6% 28.8%vs RHP 397 10.4% 0.0% 9.8% 24

5 Xander Bogaerts 26 D +750 COOL 215 0.099 88.1 5.3% 15.4%vs RHP 396 7.8% 0.0% 6.8% 37

6 Jake Cronenworth 23 D +850 COOL 220 0.074 87.9 4.8% 13.0%vs RHP 389 1.6% 0.0% 5.9% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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