TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.41×

WSH @ ATL

Truist Park · 1:35p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.18× Wind 7 mph cross 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

1:35p

+9 ↑

2:35p

+11 ↑

3:35p

+13 ↑

4:35p

+14 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 5:35p window peaks +14

Best of game Cj Abrams conv 67 · vs Proxy ⟷ Matt Olson conv 35 · vs Cavalli → edge: Cj Abrams

ATTACK ATL Bullpen Proxy · ATL

leak 60

1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cj Abrams — B ●●●●●

2 Dylan Crews — C ●●●●○

3 James Wood — A ●●○○○

FADE Cade Cavalli RHP · WSH

leak 59

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +425 C+ ●●●●●

2 Drake Baldwin +525 C+ ●●●●○

3 Ozzie Albies +625 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cj Abrams: Match 33.2% · 14D pace 100.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Cj Abrams ✶ vs Proxy — 0.272 · 89.7 · 11.0% 100.0% 33.2% F B O B 72

· ATL Matt Olson vs Cavalli Edge +425 0.266 · 92.7 · 10.0% 33.3% 35.8% F B O C+ 69

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Proxy — 0.160 · 90.6 · 9.8% 30.0% 19.9% F B O C 58

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Cavalli Edge +525 0.198 · 91.5 · 10.1% 20.0% 27.9% F B O C+ 60

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Cavalli Edge +625 0.174 · 86.9 · 5.5% 26.7% 20.4% F B O C 50

· WSH James Wood COOL vs Proxy — 0.275 · 95.2 · 21.1% 7.7% 24.4% F B O A 82

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Proxy — 0.169 · 88.0 · 8.2% 9.1% 14.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Cavalli Edge — 0.125 · 87.8 · 6.1% 28.6% 15.9% F B O D 44

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Cavalli Edge +950 0.137 · 90.3 · 6.8% 11.1% 15.5% F B O D 45

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Cavalli +625 0.131 · 90.8 · 8.6% 7.1% 14.8% F B O D 46

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Proxy — 0.151 · 88.6 · 6.6% 10.0% 10.7% F B O D 47

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Proxy — 0.179 · 88.3 · 5.0% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 47

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Cavalli +950 0.138 · 86.7 · 5.5% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 38

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Proxy — 0.042 · 84.5 · 0.4% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for ATL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 54.0% ← leak BRK 38.1% OFF 7.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Matt Olson L Edge

16.2% 10.8% 11.1% 14.0% C+ 69 +425

Drake Baldwin L Edge

15.3% 20.3% 5.1% 15.0% C+ 60 +525

Ozzie Albies S Edge

7.1% 1.0% 3.1% 4.4% C 50 +625

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

105

Austin Riley R

12.7% 10.8% 2.9% 10.8% D 46 +625

110

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

6.8% 6.5% 6.9% 6.7% D 45 +950

129

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.1% 6.0% 2.6% 5.4% D 44 —

165

Mauricio Dubon R

3.2% 6.2% 5.3% 4.4% D 38 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.0% usage) carries Cavalli's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Abrams Crews Olson Baldwin Albies Yastrzemski Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Cj Abrams — · 72

Matt Olson +425 · 69

Dylan Crews — · 58

Drake Baldwin +525 · 60

Ozzie Albies +625 · 50

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.18× Wind 7 mph cross 85°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

81°F

1:35p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

83°F

2:35p

+11

↑

9 mph · slight_out

85°F

3:35p

+13

↑

10 mph · slight_out

87°F

4:35p

+14

↑

10 mph · out

87°F

5:35p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.41× 85°F, wind 7 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs ATL Bullpen Proxy 1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 82 A — COOL 1 0.275 95.2 21.1% 36.6% 413 26.9% 7.7% 24.4% 38

2 Cj Abrams ✶ 72 B — WARM 8 0.272 89.7 11.0% 21.4% 396 42.9% 100.0% 33.2% 37

3 Dylan Crews 58 C — WARM 53 0.160 90.6 9.8% 14.5% 406 19.1% 30.0% 19.9% 27

4 Daylen Lile 51 C — WARM 96 0.169 88.0 8.2% 9.2% 402 9.2% 9.1% 14.5% 32

5 Keibert Ruiz 47 D — COOL 130 0.179 88.3 5.0% 9.1% 377 10.4% 0.0% 12.2% 26

6 Jacob Young 47 D — COOL 131 0.151 88.6 6.6% 11.8% 396 8.0% 10.0% 10.7% 27

7 Nasim Nunez 26 D — COOL 221 0.042 84.5 0.4% 1.9% 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 41

vs Cade Cavalli · RHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 69 C+ +425 · 7 0.266 92.7 10.0% 32.8%vs RHP 408 23.2% 33.3% 35.8% 35

2 Drake Baldwin 60 C+ +525 · 27 0.198 91.5 10.1% 28.9%vs RHP 403 18.7% 20.0% 27.9% 43

3 Ozzie Albies 50 C +625 · 71 0.174 86.9 5.5% 13.3%vs RHP 386 14.3% 26.7% 20.4% 45

4 Austin Riley 46 D +625 HOT 105 0.131 90.8 8.6% 17.2%vs RHP 405 8.2% 7.1% 14.8% 25

5 Mike Yastrzemski 45 D +950 · 110 0.137 90.3 6.8% 17.0%vs RHP 390 8.6% 11.1% 15.5% 13

6 Dominic Smith 44 D — · 129 0.125 87.8 6.1% 15.7%vs RHP 390 8.6% 28.6% 15.9% 19

7 Mauricio Dubon 38 D +950 WARM 165 0.138 86.7 5.5% 12.2%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 45

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.