TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.54×

DET @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 4:05p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.19× Wind 3 mph out 97°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

1:05p

+11 ↑

2:05p

+12 ↑

3:05p

+15 ↑

4:05p

+17 ↑

5:05p

conditions build late — the 5:05p window peaks +17

Best of game Kevin Mcgonigle conv 32 · vs Jump ⟷ Nick Kurtz conv 19 · vs Montero → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Gage Jump LHP · ATH

leak 73

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kevin Mcgonigle +400 D ●●●●●

2 Dillon Dingler +330 C+ ●●●●○

3 Gleyber Torres +500 D ●●●○○

FADE Keider Montero RHP · DET

leak 42

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.53 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nick Kurtz +169 C+ ●●●○○

2 Jacob Wilson +950 D ●●○○○

3 Tyler Soderstrom +320 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: 10.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Jump Edge +330 0.251 · 89.2 · 8.3% 25.0% 32.4% F B O C+ 64

· ATH Nick Kurtz COOL vs Montero Edge +169 0.226 · 93.4 · 11.4% 12.5% 25.8% F B O C+ 64

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Jump Edge +280 0.210 · 89.7 · 9.2% 16.7% 15.4% F B O C 58

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Jump +290 0.180 · 91.1 · 9.7% 15.4% 13.2% F B O C 55

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom COOL vs Montero Edge +320 0.217 · 90.2 · 8.3% 7.7% 16.1% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Jump +400 0.138 · 88.1 · 6.7% 50.0% 13.2% F B O D 49

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Jump Edge +500 0.118 · 85.8 · 6.8% 22.2% 13.1% F B O D 45

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Montero +950 0.123 · 84.1 · 4.2% 15.4% 9.8% F B O D 40

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Montero Edge +390 0.117 · 89.2 · 7.2% 9.1% 9.4% F B O D 43

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Montero +700 0.076 · 90.0 · 6.7% 8.3% 8.2% F B O D 41

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Montero Edge +525 0.155 · 90.0 · 7.2% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 45

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Jump — 0.152 · 88.6 · 6.8% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 45

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Montero Edge +575 0.083 · 86.3 · 2.8% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 33

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Jump — 0.108 · 85.2 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.9% ← leak BRK 42.0% OFF 7.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Dillon Dingler R Edge

12.2% 9.4% 7.7% 10.9% C+ 64 +330

Spencer Torkelson R Edge

14.3% 12.1% 16.7% 13.9% C 58 +280

Riley Greene L

16.9% 17.2% 7.8% 15.3% C 55 +290

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Kevin Mcgonigle L

8.5% 7.4% 1.8% 7.2% D 49 +400

116

Colt Keith L

7.2% 13.2% 3.7% 7.4% D 45 —

122

Gleyber Torres R Edge

9.0% 5.7% 0.0% 7.5% D 45 +500

177

Zach Mckinstry L

4.0% 1.9% 0.0% 2.8% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.9% usage) carries Jump's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.8% ← leak BRK 32.7% OFF 13.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Nick Kurtz L Edge

16.4% 21.4% 17.9% 18.0% C+ 64 +169

Tyler Soderstrom L Edge

8.9% 16.9% 0.0% 9.5% C 56 +320

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

113

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.8% 4.5% 8.9% 7.3% D 45 +525

139

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.7% 13.2% 2.1% 6.8% D 43 +390

153

Henry Bolte R

5.8% 7.7% 5.6% 6.3% D 41 +700

157

Jacob Wilson R

3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% D 40 +950

194

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.1% D 33 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.8% usage) carries Montero's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Dingler Torkelson Greene Mcgonigle Torres Kurtz

Legend

attack side — vs Jump fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Dillon Dingler +330 · 64

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 1.19× Wind 3 mph out 97°F open

+10

↑

2 mph · out

95°F

1:05p

+11

↑

2 mph · out

100°F

2:05p

+12

↑

4 mph · out

100°F

3:05p

+15

↑

7 mph · out

100°F

4:05p

+17

↑

9 mph · out

99°F

5:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.54× 97°F, wind 3 mph W (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gage Jump · LHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 64 C+ +330 COOL 14 0.251 89.2 8.3% 20.0%vs LHP 397 19.6% 25.0% 32.4% 39

2 Spencer Torkelson 58 C +280 COOL 36 0.210 89.7 9.2% 10.7%vs LHP 394 16.8% 16.7% 15.4% 38

3 Riley Greene 55 C +290 COOL 51 0.180 91.1 9.7% 9.1%vs LHP 399 11.9% 15.4% 13.2% 37

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 49 D +400 · 86 0.138 88.1 6.7% 9.7%vs LHP 400 28.6% 50.0% 13.2% 43

5 Colt Keith 45 D — COOL 116 0.152 88.6 6.8% 9.9% 389 6.5% 0.0% 10.3% 28

6 Gleyber Torres 45 D +500 WARM 122 0.118 85.8 6.8% 8.3%vs LHP 391 9.2% 22.2% 13.1% 27

7 Zach Mckinstry 37 D — WARM 177 0.108 85.2 4.2% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 33

vs Keider Montero · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.53 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nick Kurtz 64 C+ +169 COOL 17 0.226 93.4 11.4% 41.7%vs RHP 412 20.0% 12.5% 25.8% 7

2 Tyler Soderstrom 56 C +320 COOL 41 0.217 90.2 8.3% 20.4%vs RHP 405 15.6% 7.7% 16.1% 38

3 Carlos Cortes 45 D +525 COOL 113 0.155 90.0 7.2% 16.3%vs RHP 403 5.1% 0.0% 10.9% 11

4 Lawrence Butler 43 D +390 WARM 139 0.117 89.2 7.2% 17.6%vs RHP 405 4.4% 9.1% 9.4% 26

5 Henry Bolte 41 D +700 COOL 153 0.076 90.0 6.7% 5.0%vs RHP 422 10.0% 8.3% 8.2% 25

6 Jacob Wilson 40 D +950 WARM 157 0.123 84.1 4.2% 16.1%vs RHP 386 7.3% 15.4% 9.8% 50

7 Jeff Mcneil 33 D +575 WARM 194 0.083 86.3 2.8% 8.7%vs RHP 377 3.0% 0.0% 8.3% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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