TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ TB

Neutral air · 1.01×

CWS @ TB

Tropicana Field · 1:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 30 · vs Jax ⟷ Nick Fortes conv 23 · vs Kay → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Griffin Jax RHP · TB

leak 95

1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.75 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +350 B ●●●●●

2 Colson Montgomery +400 C+ ●●●○○

3 Miguel Vargas +400 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Anthony Kay LHP · CWS

leak 91

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nick Fortes +950 D ●●●●○

2 Cedric Mullins — D ●●○○○

3 Junior Caminero +280 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Jax Edge +350 0.309 · 94.3 · 13.8% 23.1% 37.4% F B O B 70

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Jax Edge +400 0.238 · 89.2 · 11.0% 16.7% 26.5% F B O C+ 60

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Jax +400 0.240 · 90.7 · 11.8% 15.4% 16.4% F B O C+ 60

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs Kay Edge +280 0.264 · 93.0 · 10.8% 7.7% 21.8% F B O C+ 64

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TB Nick Fortes vs Kay Edge +950 0.106 · 85.8 · 4.6% 33.3% 13.0% F B O D 38

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Kay — 0.156 · 87.8 · 5.9% 20.0% 9.9% F B O D 45

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Jax +950 0.120 · 88.0 · 6.7% 16.7% 10.0% F B O D 39

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Jax Edge +575 0.180 · 88.8 · 9.2% 9.1% 13.0% F B O D 48

· CWS Sam Antonacci vs Jax Edge +850 0.135 · 87.8 · 7.7% 9.1% 9.5% F B O D 41

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Kay Edge +475 0.162 · 90.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 43

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Jax Edge +850 0.152 · 87.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 40

· TB Ben Williamson COOL vs Kay Edge +950 0.076 · 87.3 · 3.7% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 32

· TB Richie Palacios vs Kay — 0.106 · 85.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 36

· CWS Luisangel Acuna COOL vs Jax — 0.036 · 89.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 29

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Kay +700 0.152 · 91.0 · 9.5% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 47

· CWS Edgar Quero COOL vs Jax Edge — 0.042 · 90.5 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 30

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.070 · 85.2 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 31

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Kay — 0.061 · 83.8 · — 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 41.8% ← leak BRK 34.8% OFF 23.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

21.8% 19.0% 15.8% 20.0% B 70 +350

Neutral · 2

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.7% 12.1% 14.7% 12.9% C+ 60 +400

Miguel Vargas R

15.9% 12.6% 12.5% 14.6% C+ 60 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.7% 4.9% 5.8% 9.0% D 48 +575

151

Sam Antonacci L Edge

7.9% 5.7% 0.0% 6.2% D 41 +850

156

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.1% 5.4% 0.0% 5.0% D 40 +850

163

Chase Meidroth R

4.1% 6.6% 4.2% 4.7% D 39 +950

209

Edgar Quero S Edge

2.4% 0.0% 3.2% 2.3% D 30 —

210

Luisangel Acuna R

4.1% 5.0% 0.0% 3.7% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (41.8% usage) carries Jax's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.3% ← leak BRK 27.6% OFF 14.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R Edge

17.3% 10.6% 6.1% 13.3% C+ 64 +280

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

102

Jonathan Aranda L

11.0% 13.8% 5.6% 10.7% D 47 +700

119

Cedric Mullins L

3.1% 3.7% 8.3% 4.0% D 45 —

132

Yandy Diaz R Edge

5.5% 10.6% 4.5% 7.1% D 43 +475

166

Nick Fortes R Edge

3.1% 2.0% 0.0% 2.4% D 38 +950

181

Richie Palacios L

4.8% 2.1% 3.7% 3.9% D 36 —

200

Ben Williamson R Edge

2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% D 32 +950

207

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% D 31 —

223

Chandler Simpson L

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.3% usage) carries Kay's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Montgomery Vargas Meidroth Caminero Mullins Fortes

Legend

attack side — vs Jax fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Munetaka Murakami +350 · 70

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 1:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.01× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.01× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Griffin Jax · RHP 1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.75 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 70 B +350 WARM 5 0.309 94.3 13.8% 39.2%vs RHP 406 17.9% 23.1% 37.4% 30

2 Colson Montgomery 60 C+ +400 COOL 26 0.238 89.2 11.0% 25.8%vs RHP 399 23.9% 16.7% 26.5% 29

3 Miguel Vargas 60 C+ +400 WARM 28 0.240 90.7 11.8% 16.1%vs RHP 391 20.4% 15.4% 16.4% 39

4 Andrew Benintendi 48 D +575 COOL 91 0.180 88.8 9.2% 17.2%vs RHP 390 13.7% 9.1% 13.0% 26

5 Sam Antonacci 41 D +850 · 151 0.135 87.8 7.7% 15.1%vs RHP 390 10.9% 9.1% 9.5% 34

6 Tristan Peters 40 D +850 COOL 156 0.152 87.1 6.9% 9.5%vs RHP 377 7.6% 0.0% 9.8% 30

7 Chase Meidroth 39 D +950 WARM 163 0.120 88.0 6.7% 16.3%vs RHP 380 7.5% 16.7% 10.0% 35

8 Edgar Quero 30 D — COOL 209 0.042 90.5 4.7% 0.0%vs RHP 389 4.2% 0.0% 7.1% 20

9 Luisangel Acuna 29 D — COOL 210 0.036 89.0 5.8% 8.3%vs RHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 13

vs Anthony Kay · LHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 64 C+ +280 COOL 19 0.264 93.0 10.8% 41.2%vs LHP 410 26.2% 7.7% 21.8% 39

2 Jonathan Aranda 47 D +700 WARM 102 0.152 91.0 9.5% 4.8%vs LHP 387 11.8% 0.0% 7.6% 30

3 Cedric Mullins 45 D — COOL 119 0.156 87.8 5.9% 0.0%vs LHP 389 14.1% 20.0% 9.9% 29

4 Yandy Diaz 43 D +475 COOL 132 0.162 90.7 7.8% 19.4%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 42

5 Nick Fortes 38 D +950 WARM 166 0.106 85.8 4.6% 5.6%vs LHP 396 5.2% 33.3% 13.0% 24

6 Richie Palacios 36 D — WARM 181 0.106 85.8 5.8% 7.3% 394 3.6% 0.0% 7.7% 18

7 Ben Williamson 32 D +950 COOL 200 0.076 87.3 3.7% 14.3%vs LHP 398 2.7% 0.0% 8.8% 24

8 Taylor Walls 31 D — COOL 207 0.070 85.2 4.8% 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 19

9 Chandler Simpson 21 D — COOL 223 0.061 83.8 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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