TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ BAL

Camden Yards is live · 1.45×

PHI @ BAL

Camden Yards · 1:35p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.21× Wind 8 mph slight_out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

1:35p

+10 ↑

2:35p

+10 ↑

3:35p

+10 ↑

4:35p

+11 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 5:35p window peaks +11

Best of game Coby Mayo conv 26 · vs Wheeler ⟷ Trea Turner conv 23 · vs Bradish → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI

leak 93

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · leakiest side of this game

1 Coby Mayo +425 C ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso +370 C ●●●○○

3 Gunnar Henderson +400 D ●●○○○

FADE Kyle Bradish RHP · BAL

leak 70

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trea Turner +500 C ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +390 C+ ●●●●○

3 Alec Bohm +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 23.9% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Coby Mayo HOT vs Wheeler +425 0.213 · 92.7 · 8.6% 22.2% 28.8% F B O C 58

· PHI Trea Turner vs Bradish +500 0.154 · 88.8 · 7.4% 25.0% 21.4% F B O C 52

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Bradish Edge +390 0.236 · 90.2 · 9.6% 16.7% 29.7% F B O C+ 64

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Wheeler +370 0.218 · 94.0 · 8.8% 15.4% 22.9% F B O C 59

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Bradish Edge +625 0.174 · 89.5 · 8.5% 10.0% 14.2% F B O C 52

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Bradish Edge +198 0.291 · 93.2 · 11.9% 0.0% 23.9% F B O B 70

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Bradish +700 0.140 · 90.6 · 6.5% 16.7% 11.7% F B O D 47

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Wheeler Edge +400 0.178 · 89.5 · 6.7% 7.7% 14.6% F B O D 49

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Bradish Edge +625 0.156 · 89.2 · 7.6% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 48

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Wheeler Edge +700 0.121 · 87.5 · 5.4% 8.3% 10.2% F B O D 39

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Bradish +575 0.139 · — · 6.5% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 40

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Wheeler Edge +575 0.121 · 86.7 · 8.0% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 44

· BAL Taylor Ward COOL vs Wheeler +625 0.101 · 89.0 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 38

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Bradish Edge — 0.081 · 86.5 · 2.5% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.7% BRK 48.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

17.7% 14.9% 17.8% B 70 +198

Neutral · 3

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.6% 14.2% 11.6% C+ 64 +390

Trea Turner R

8.4% 4.8% 6.6% C 52 +500

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.2% 14.1% 9.1% C 52 +625

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Bryson Stott L Edge

9.3% 4.7% 7.2% D 48 +625

100

Alec Bohm R

5.0% 4.4% 5.2% D 47 +700

154

J.T. Realmuto R

4.4% 7.5% 5.3% D 40 +575

196

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.6% 0.0% 0.9% D 33 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Bradish's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.7% ← leak BRK 22.5% OFF 15.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R

13.5% 8.0% 15.2% 12.1% C 59 +370

Coby Mayo R

10.8% 10.7% 19.0% 11.9% C 58 +425

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.7% 6.2% 7.5% 7.2% D 49 +400

127

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.5% 10.8% 2.4% 10.1% D 44 +575

162

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.8% 8.7% 0.0% 4.7% D 39 +700

170

Taylor Ward R

8.1% 1.2% 2.9% 5.6% D 38 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.7% usage) carries Wheeler's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Turner Bohm Alonso Mayo

Legend

attack side — vs Wheeler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Coby Mayo +425 · 58

Trea Turner +500 · 52

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.21× Wind 8 mph slight_out 83°F open

+10

↑

7 mph · slight_out

79°F

1:35p

+10

↑

6 mph · slight_out

79°F

2:35p

+10

↑

5 mph · slight_out

79°F

3:35p

+10

↑

4 mph · out

78°F

4:35p

+11

↑

5 mph · out

78°F

5:35p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.45× 83°F, wind 8 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Bradish · RHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 70 B +198 COOL 6 0.291 93.2 11.9% 41.2%vs RHP 403 23.8% 0.0% 23.9% 19

2 Bryce Harper 64 C+ +390 · 16 0.236 90.2 9.6% 35.9%vs RHP 401 18.9% 16.7% 29.7% 30

3 Trea Turner 52 C +500 WARM 58 0.154 88.8 7.4% 21.3%vs RHP 393 14.4% 25.0% 21.4% 38

4 Brandon Marsh 52 C +625 · 59 0.174 89.5 8.5% 22.0%vs RHP 393 13.0% 10.0% 14.2% 32

5 Bryson Stott 48 D +625 WARM 94 0.156 89.2 7.6% 9.5%vs RHP 389 7.9% 8.3% 10.7% 29

6 Alec Bohm 47 D +700 WARM 100 0.140 90.6 6.5% 17.1%vs RHP 396 11.7% 16.7% 11.7% 38

7 J.T. Realmuto 40 D +575 WARM 154 0.139 — 6.5% 20.0%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 25

8 Justin Crawford 33 D — COOL 196 0.081 86.5 2.5% 5.3%vs RHP 382 2.6% 0.0% 8.4% 27

vs Zack Wheeler · RHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 59 C +370 · 31 0.218 94.0 8.8% 27.3%vs RHP 401 19.1% 15.4% 22.9% 37

2 Coby Mayo 58 C +425 HOT 33 0.213 92.7 8.6% 12.5%vs RHP 405 15.7% 22.2% 28.8% 16

3 Gunnar Henderson 49 D +400 · 80 0.178 89.5 6.7% 16.9%vs RHP 390 15.7% 7.7% 14.6% 34

4 Colton Cowser 44 D +575 COOL 127 0.121 86.7 8.0% 18.2%vs RHP 417 13.0% 0.0% 10.9% 9

5 Leody Taveras 39 D +700 COOL 162 0.121 87.5 5.4% 12.8%vs RHP 419 3.9% 8.3% 10.2% 29

6 Taylor Ward 38 D +625 COOL 170 0.101 89.0 5.9% 5.1%vs RHP 388 6.3% 0.0% 9.3% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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