TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.59×

KC @ COL

Coors Field · 3:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.22× Wind 4 mph cross 98°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

1:10p

+9 ↑

2:10p

+11 ↑

3:10p

+12 ↑

4:10p

+15 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks +15

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 35 · vs Lugo ⟷ Jac Caglianone conv 28 · vs Freeland → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Seth Lugo RHP · KC

leak 79

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman +210 B ●●●●●

2 Willi Castro +425 C ●●●●○

3 Mickey Moniak +265 C+ ●●●●○

FADE Kyle Freeland LHP · COL

leak 15

1.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.94 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jac Caglianone +265 C+ ●●●●○

2 Carter Jensen +350 C+ ●●●○○

3 Salvador Perez +255 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Lugo +210 0.289 · 90.8 · 12.3% 27.3% 42.2% F B O B 75

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Freeland +265 0.199 · 93.0 · 12.7% 30.0% 26.9% F B O C+ 67

· COL Willi Castro vs Lugo Edge +425 0.144 · 88.0 · 8.5% 33.3% 17.2% F B O C 53

· COL Mickey Moniak COOL vs Lugo Edge +265 0.282 · 89.5 · 9.9% 22.2% 27.4% F B O C+ 66

· KC Carter Jensen vs Freeland +350 0.190 · 90.8 · 10.3% 16.7% 15.9% F B O C+ 60

· KC Salvador Perez vs Freeland Edge +255 0.154 · 89.1 · 10.6% 0.0% 21.8% F B O C 52

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Lugo Edge +700 0.196 · 84.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 13.9% F B O C 50

· COL Kyle Karros COOL vs Lugo +525 0.161 · 89.7 · 8.6% 0.0% 13.8% F B O C 51

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Freeland — 0.156 · 89.9 · 8.2% 0.0% 11.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Freeland Edge +425 0.127 · 88.3 · 7.8% 8.3% 9.9% F B O D 48

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Lugo Edge +425 0.171 · 83.6 · 6.7% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 46

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Lugo +475 0.122 · 87.3 · 7.5% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 45

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Lugo — 0.070 · 87.7 · 3.6% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 35

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Lugo Edge +700 0.108 · 89.7 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.4% ← leak BRK 32.3% OFF 14.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Jac Caglianone L

14.7% 17.2% 11.3% 14.9% C+ 67 +265

Carter Jensen L

11.2% 8.8% 6.7% 9.5% C+ 60 +350

Salvador Perez R Edge

14.1% 6.5% 8.9% 10.3% C 52 +255

Michael Massey L

7.5% 5.9% 2.3% 6.2% C 50 —

Long shots · 1 — below the fade line

Isaac Collins S Edge

5.9% 11.1% 0.0% 5.6% D 48 +425

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.4% usage) carries Freeland's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.2% ← leak BRK 36.4% OFF 8.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R

20.0% 15.7% 7.1% 16.9% B 75 +210

Neutral · 4

Mickey Moniak L Edge

9.2% 22.5% 2.5% 10.7% C+ 66 +265

Willi Castro S Edge

9.4% 6.5% 6.4% 8.0% C 53 +425

Kyle Karros R

8.0% 5.0% 14.3% 7.8% C 51 +525

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.0% 1.6% 8.3% 5.2% C 50 +700

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

103

Tj Rumfield L Edge

6.1% 2.1% 5.9% 4.8% D 46 +425

117

Ezequiel Tovar R

6.0% 7.4% 4.3% 6.4% D 45 +475

172

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.6% 2.5% 0.0% 2.0% D 38 +700

183

Tyler Freeman R

2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.2% usage) carries Lugo's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Jensen Goodman Moniak Castro

Legend

attack side — vs Lugo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Hunter Goodman +210 · 75

Jac Caglianone +265 · 67

Mickey Moniak +265 · 66

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.22× Wind 4 mph cross 98°F open

↑

6 mph · cross

92°F

1:10p

↑

7 mph · cross

96°F

2:10p

+11

↑

8 mph · slight_out

99°F

3:10p

+12

↑

9 mph · slight_out

98°F

4:10p

+15

↑

11 mph · slight_out

98°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.59× 98°F, wind 4 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Freeland · LHP 1.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.94 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 67 C+ +265 COOL 10 0.199 93.0 12.7% 29.4%vs LHP 417 14.4% 30.0% 26.9% 32

2 Carter Jensen 60 C+ +350 WARM 29 0.190 90.8 10.3% 11.1%vs LHP 396 15.1% 16.7% 15.9% 31

3 Salvador Perez 52 C +255 WARM 60 0.154 89.1 10.6% 16.1%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 21.8% 36

4 Michael Massey 50 C — COOL 75 0.156 89.9 8.2% 25.0%vs LHP 398 5.5% 0.0% 11.9% 36

5 Isaac Collins 48 D +425 COOL 95 0.127 88.3 7.8% 9.1%vs LHP 394 6.4% 8.3% 9.9% 33

vs Seth Lugo · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 75 B +210 COOL 2 0.289 90.8 12.3% 42.6%vs RHP 411 24.7% 27.3% 42.2% 23

2 Mickey Moniak 66 C+ +265 COOL 11 0.282 89.5 9.9% 23.4%vs RHP 417 16.9% 22.2% 27.4% 28

3 Willi Castro 53 C +425 WARM 56 0.144 88.0 8.5% 16.1%vs RHP 412 11.0% 33.3% 17.2% 23

4 Kyle Karros 51 C +525 COOL 67 0.161 89.7 8.6% 23.5%vs RHP 417 10.5% 0.0% 13.8% 23

5 Jake Mccarthy 50 C +700 COOL 68 0.196 84.8 6.8% 16.0%vs RHP 419 14.3% 0.0% 13.9% 37

6 Tj Rumfield 46 D +425 COOL 103 0.171 83.6 6.7% 16.9%vs RHP 410 7.1% 0.0% 12.2% 31

7 Ezequiel Tovar 45 D +475 COOL 117 0.122 87.3 7.5% 16.1%vs RHP 410 7.3% 0.0% 10.3% 16

8 Troy Johnston 38 D +700 COOL 172 0.108 89.7 4.2% 7.3%vs RHP 415 1.2% 0.0% 8.2% 22

9 Tyler Freeman 35 D — COOL 183 0.070 87.7 3.6% 3.7%vs RHP 369 2.0% 0.0% 8.4% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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