TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ TOR

Rogers Centre is live · 1.12×

KC @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:07p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 10 mph out 75°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-4 ↑

7:07p

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8:07p

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9:07p

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10:07p

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11:07p

conditions hold steady across the window · -4 FIT

Best of game John Rave conv 25 · vs Miles ⟷ Alejandro Kirk conv 22 · vs Dobnak → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Spencer Miles RHP · TOR

leak 72

0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 John Rave — D ●●●●○

2 Bobby Witt Jr. — D ●●●●○

3 Kyle Isbel — D ●●●○○

FADE Randy Dobnak RHP · KC

leak 46

0.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.57 · stingy — thin edge

1 Alejandro Kirk — D ●●●○○

2 Kazuma Okamoto — D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Lukes — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: Match 15.7% · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 17 long shots

· KC John Rave COOL vs Miles Edge — 0.243 · 86.6 · 7.6% 33.3% 16.3% F B O D 42

· KC Bobby Witt Jr. COOL vs Miles — 0.172 · 92.5 · 7.0% 33.3% 12.8% F B O D 43

· TOR Alejandro Kirk HOT vs Dobnak — 0.141 · 87.9 · 4.0% 30.0% 14.5% F B O D 37

· KC Kyle Isbel vs Miles Edge — 0.129 · 89.0 · 3.9% 25.0% 11.7% F B O D 32

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Miles Edge — 0.134 · 89.4 · 5.7% 25.0% 10.4% F B O D 35

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs Dobnak — 0.209 · 90.5 · 7.5% 16.7% 15.7% F B O D 48

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Miles Edge — 0.215 · 93.2 · 7.8% 11.1% 14.6% F B O D 46

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Dobnak Edge — 0.113 · 86.9 · 2.9% 12.5% 8.3% F B O D 29

· KC Carter Jensen vs Miles Edge — 0.183 · 90.8 · 6.6% 10.0% 10.7% F B O D 40

· KC Salvador Perez vs Miles — 0.153 · 88.8 · 6.4% 11.1% 6.9% F B O D 37

· KC Nick Loftin vs Miles — 0.148 · 87.1 · 4.2% 10.0% 6.1% F B O D 32

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Dobnak — 0.151 · 88.2 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 35

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Dobnak Edge — 0.164 · 90.8 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 39

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero Jr. COOL vs Dobnak — 0.091 · 90.1 · 5.5% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 29

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Dobnak — 0.118 · 84.5 · 3.1% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 27

· KC Tyler Tolbert vs Miles — 0.133 · 85.4 · 3.8% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 31

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Dobnak Edge — 0.116 · 85.5 · 3.8% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.4% ← leak BRK 41.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 9 — below the fade line

Jac Caglianone L Edge

13.5% 17.3% 14.4% D 46 —

110

Bobby Witt Jr. R

12.1% 10.0% 11.4% D 43 —

116

John Rave L Edge

16.7% 10.5% 13.8% D 42 —

137

Carter Jensen L Edge

10.4% 10.9% 10.3% D 40 —

172

Salvador Perez R

13.9% 6.0% 10.0% D 37 —

186

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

7.8% 6.3% 7.6% D 35 —

212

Kyle Isbel L Edge

4.8% 2.5% 3.4% D 32 —

218

Nick Loftin R

5.7% 1.8% 4.1% D 32 —

225

Tyler Tolbert R

4.0% 4.2% 3.3% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.4% usage) carries Miles's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.3% BRK 30.6% OFF 21.1% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Kazuma Okamoto R

13.6% 8.8% 19.2% 12.7% D 48 —

146

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

11.0% 18.3% 0.0% 11.4% D 39 —

167

Alejandro Kirk R

4.1% 3.6% 0.0% 3.4% D 37 —

187

George Springer R

6.8% 5.4% 6.5% 6.3% D 35 —

231

Nathan Lukes L Edge

1.2% 3.4% 4.0% 2.2% D 29 —

236

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. R

6.9% 8.7% 1.9% 6.7% D 29 —

249

Ernie Clement R

2.3% 2.3% 1.7% 2.2% D 27 —

250

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.4% 2.1% 4.3% 3.1% D 26 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Dobnak's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jr. Rave Pasquantino Isbel Okamoto Kirk

Legend

attack side — vs Miles fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.93× Wind 10 mph out 75°F retractable

-4

↑

10 mph · cross

71°F

7:07p · peak

-4

↑

10 mph · cross

71°F

8:07p

-4

↑

10 mph · cross

71°F

9:07p

-4

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10 mph · cross

71°F

10:07p

-4

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10 mph · cross

71°F

11:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 75°F, wind 10 mph SE (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Spencer Miles · RHP 0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 46 D — · 75 0.215 93.2 7.8% 29.4%vs RHP 417 14.8% 11.1% 14.6% 25

2 Bobby Witt Jr. 43 D — COOL 110 0.172 92.5 7.0% 16.4%vs RHP 403 16.2% 33.3% 12.8% 35

3 John Rave 42 D — COOL 116 0.243 86.6 7.6% 22.2%vs RHP 409 14.3% 33.3% 16.3% 19

4 Carter Jensen 40 D — · 137 0.183 90.8 6.6% 16.3%vs RHP 397 14.4% 10.0% 10.7% 27

5 Salvador Perez 37 D — WARM 172 0.153 88.8 6.4% 18.4%vs RHP 406 15.2% 11.1% 6.9% 32

6 Vinnie Pasquantino 35 D — HOT 186 0.134 89.4 5.7% 12.7%vs RHP 402 9.5% 25.0% 10.4% 29

7 Kyle Isbel 32 D — WARM 212 0.129 89.0 3.9% 17.2%vs RHP 388 7.4% 25.0% 11.7% 27

8 Nick Loftin 32 D — WARM 218 0.148 87.1 4.2% 11.6%vs RHP 394 9.0% 10.0% 6.1% 28

9 Tyler Tolbert 31 D — WARM 225 0.133 85.4 3.8% 20.0%vs RHP 386 13.0% 0.0% 6.1% 12

vs Randy Dobnak · RHP 0.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.57 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 48 D — · 61 0.209 90.5 7.5% 26.4%vs RHP 400 17.3% 16.7% 15.7% 34

2 Jesús Sánchez 39 D — · 146 0.164 90.8 7.2% 19.1%vs RHP 398 9.9% 0.0% 8.3% 9

3 Alejandro Kirk 37 D — HOT 167 0.141 87.9 4.0% 25.9%vs RHP 393 10.0% 30.0% 14.5% 37

4 George Springer 35 D — COOL 187 0.151 88.2 5.3% 20.8%vs RHP 393 10.2% 0.0% 8.9% 26

5 Nathan Lukes 29 D — WARM 231 0.113 86.9 2.9% 13.5%vs RHP 381 6.9% 12.5% 8.3% 30

6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 29 D — COOL 236 0.091 90.1 5.5% 11.8%vs RHP 408 4.7% 0.0% 6.9% 24

7 Ernie Clement 27 D — COOL 249 0.118 84.5 3.1% 6.0%vs RHP 376 7.3% 0.0% 6.3% 37

8 Andres Gimenez 26 D — COOL 250 0.116 85.5 3.8% 10.2%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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