TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ LAA

Angel Stadium is live · 1.26×

CLE @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 4:07p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind 9 mph out 98°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

1:07p

+7 ↑

2:07p

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3:07p

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4:07p

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5:07p

the 2:07p window peaks +7

Best of game Zach Neto conv 13 · vs Cantillo ⟷ Brayan Rocchio conv 8 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Zach Neto

ATTACK Joey Cantillo LHP · CLE

leak 77

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto +390 D ●●○○○

2 Josh Lowe +575 D ●●○○○

3 Vaughn Grissom +750 D ●○○○○

FADE Grayson Rodriguez RHP · LAA

leak 72

1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brayan Rocchio +750 D ●○○○○

2 Angel Martinez +500 D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Zach Neto: 11.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· LAA Zach Neto ✶ vs Cantillo Edge +390 0.197 · 89.5 · 9.6% 15.4% 10.8% F B O D 45

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Cantillo +575 0.151 · 89.1 · 8.0% 15.4% 8.5% F B O D 37

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Rodriguez Edge +750 0.117 · 86.7 · 5.5% 9.1% 6.6% F B O D 31

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Cantillo Edge +750 0.126 · 87.8 · 7.1% 7.7% 6.3% F B O D 32

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +500 0.183 · 87.3 · 8.4% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 37

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Cantillo Edge +400 0.193 · 89.8 · 11.1% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 45

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Cantillo Edge — 0.123 · 87.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 31

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.162 · 91.2 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 37

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Rodriguez Edge +625 0.119 · 90.6 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 35

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +525 0.130 · 88.1 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 34

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +390 0.139 · 89.3 · 6.8% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 32

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.058 · 83.8 · 1.7% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.9% ← leak OFF 24.2% BRK 21.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

137

Angel Martinez S Edge

7.6% 2.7% 14.3% 7.5% D 37 +500

139

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.0% 1.5% 6.5% 6.3% D 37 —

156

Patrick Bailey S Edge

8.5% 4.5% 4.3% 6.5% D 35 +625

164

Travis Bazzana L Edge

5.1% 2.7% 3.3% 4.4% D 34 +525

170

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 32 +390

183

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.8% 1.1% 4.3% 3.2% D 31 +750

211

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 18 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.9% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 39.7% ← leak BRK 34.4% OFF 25.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Zach Neto R Edge

14.4% 7.4% 8.7% 11.7% D 45 +390

Mike Trout R Edge

14.9% 21.6% 10.7% 15.7% D 45 +400

143

Josh Lowe L

11.0% 4.8% 5.3% 8.2% D 37 +575

177

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

7.9% 5.8% 2.6% 6.4% D 32 +750

179

Oswald Peraza R Edge

6.1% 6.9% 10.3% 6.9% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (39.7% usage) carries Cantillo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto

Legend

attack side — vs Cantillo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 1:07p · roof open

Park 0.84× Wind 9 mph out 98°F open

↑

8 mph · out

96°F

1:07p

↑

9 mph · out

100°F

2:07p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

99°F

3:07p

↑

9 mph · out

98°F

4:07p

↑

9 mph · out

96°F

5:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.26× 98°F, wind 9 mph SW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Grayson Rodriguez · RHP 1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 37 D +500 COOL 137 0.183 87.3 8.4% 25.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 32

2 Chase Delauter 37 D — COOL 139 0.162 91.2 7.7% 23.6%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 25

3 Patrick Bailey 35 D +625 · 156 0.119 90.6 8.2% 14.6%vs RHP 409 6.5% 0.0% 8.1% 17

4 Travis Bazzana 34 D +525 COOL 164 0.130 88.1 6.7% 16.7%vs RHP 396 9.2% 0.0% 7.0% 35

5 Jose Ramirez 32 D +390 COOL 170 0.139 89.3 6.8% 10.1%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 35

6 Brayan Rocchio 31 D +750 WARM 183 0.117 86.7 5.5% 11.9%vs RHP 384 7.3% 9.1% 6.6% 33

7 Steven Kwan 18 D — COOL 211 0.058 83.8 1.7% 2.9%vs RHP 372 1.7% 0.0% 5.6% 47

vs Joey Cantillo · LHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto ✶ 45 D +390 · 77 0.197 89.5 9.6% 16.7%vs LHP 404 15.9% 15.4% 10.8% 40

2 Mike Trout 45 D +400 COOL 78 0.193 89.8 11.1% 17.9%vs LHP 409 14.4% 0.0% 10.6% 38

3 Josh Lowe 37 D +575 COOL 143 0.151 89.1 8.0% 0.0%vs LHP 392 10.0% 15.4% 8.5% 27

4 Vaughn Grissom 32 D +750 COOL 177 0.126 87.8 7.1% 0.0%vs LHP 390 9.1% 7.7% 6.3% 34

5 Oswald Peraza 31 D — COOL 179 0.123 87.4 7.3% 22.7%vs LHP 386 5.3% 0.0% 9.6% 6

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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