TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.96×

BAL @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:45p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.80× Wind 5 mph cross 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:45p

-6 ↑

7:45p

-9 ↑

8:45p

-12 ↑

9:45p

-12 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at -4

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 26 · vs Bradish ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 32 · vs McGreevy → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Kyle Bradish RHP · BAL

leak 75

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker +500 C ●●●●○

2 Alec Burleson +575 D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Church — D ●○○○○

FADE Michael McGreevy RHP · STL

leak 68

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso +390 C ●●●●●

2 Colton Cowser +750 D ●●●●●

3 Coby Mayo +425 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 41.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs McGreevy +390 0.229 · 94.1 · 11.5% 41.7% 22.6% F B O C 58

· STL Jordan Walker vs Bradish +500 0.218 · 92.4 · 10.3% 30.8% 21.3% F B O C 53

· BAL Coby Mayo vs McGreevy +425 0.225 · 92.2 · 10.9% 20.0% 17.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· BAL Colton Cowser vs McGreevy Edge +750 0.151 · 87.3 · 10.4% 50.0% 13.7% F B O D 45

· STL Alec Burleson vs Bradish Edge +575 0.197 · 92.2 · 9.4% 16.7% 11.5% F B O D 46

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs McGreevy Edge +500 0.210 · 91.1 · 11.2% 0.0% 21.1% F B O D 49

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Bradish Edge — 0.123 · 85.9 · 7.0% 12.5% 6.5% F B O D 32

· STL José Fermín vs Bradish — 0.127 · 86.6 · 4.6% 12.5% 5.9% F B O D 29

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs McGreevy Edge +500 0.174 · 89.8 · 8.2% 8.3% 9.1% F B O D 41

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs McGreevy Edge +950 0.130 · 87.9 · 6.3% 9.1% 6.5% F B O D 32

· STL Nolan Gorman COOL vs Bradish Edge — 0.124 · 89.3 · 8.5% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 35

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Bradish +850 0.137 · 89.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 30

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Bradish Edge +750 0.132 · 89.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 33

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs McGreevy Edge +850 0.126 · 87.3 · 8.0% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.3% ← leak BRK 27.3% OFF 19.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R

15.2% 10.9% 14.0% 13.9% C 58 +390

Coby Mayo R

10.6% 14.9% 13.3% 12.4% C 51 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Samuel Basallo L Edge

15.5% 11.1% 10.9% 13.2% D 49 +500

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.3% 14.0% 3.9% 11.2% D 45 +750

108

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.5% 6.3% 7.2% 7.1% D 41 +500

173

Jackson Holliday L Edge

7.4% 4.7% 7.7% 6.8% D 32 +850

174

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.6% 6.9% 0.0% 4.1% D 32 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.3% usage) carries McGreevy's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.4% BRK 47.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

14.1% 12.1% 13.5% C 53 +500

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.8% 10.9% 11.3% D 46 +575

159

Nolan Gorman L Edge

12.5% 3.7% 9.2% D 35 —

165

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

10.4% 3.9% 7.5% D 33 +750

176

Nathan Church L Edge

7.5% 6.2% 6.3% D 32 —

187

Ivan Herrera R

6.2% 4.5% 5.7% D 30 +850

190

José Fermín R

3.6% 2.0% 2.7% D 29 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Bradish's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Cowser Walker Burleson

Legend

attack side — vs Bradish fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Alonso +390 · 58

Jordan Walker +500 · 53

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.80× Wind 5 mph cross 87°F open

-4

↑

3 mph · slight_out

88°F

6:45p · peak

-6

↑

4 mph · cross

85°F

7:45p

-9

↑

6 mph · cross

82°F

8:45p

-12

↑

7 mph · in

79°F

9:45p

-12

↑

7 mph · in

77°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 87°F, wind 5 mph NNW (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Michael McGreevy · RHP 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 58 C +390 · 18 0.229 94.1 11.5% 29.9%vs RHP 402 21.4% 41.7% 22.6% 39

2 Coby Mayo 51 C +425 WARM 40 0.225 92.2 10.9% 10.3%vs RHP 411 16.2% 20.0% 17.4% 23

3 Samuel Basallo 49 D +500 COOL 53 0.210 91.1 11.2% 30.0%vs RHP 399 15.6% 0.0% 21.1% 11

4 Colton Cowser 45 D +750 WARM 75 0.151 87.3 10.4% 20.0%vs RHP 414 16.4% 50.0% 13.7% 16

5 Gunnar Henderson 41 D +500 COOL 108 0.174 89.8 8.2% 17.7%vs RHP 391 14.7% 8.3% 9.1% 36

6 Jackson Holliday 32 D +850 COOL 173 0.126 87.3 8.0% 15.2%vs RHP 388 4.0% 0.0% 6.6% 45

7 Leody Taveras 32 D +950 COOL 174 0.130 87.9 6.3% 13.7%vs RHP 405 4.3% 9.1% 6.5% 34

vs Kyle Bradish · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 53 C +500 · 32 0.218 92.4 10.3% 27.1%vs RHP 406 18.3% 30.8% 21.3% 40

2 Alec Burleson 46 D +575 WARM 69 0.197 92.2 9.4% 23.1%vs RHP 405 15.1% 16.7% 11.5% 38

3 Nolan Gorman 35 D — COOL 159 0.124 89.3 8.5% 15.0%vs RHP 404 8.5% 0.0% 8.1% 1

4 Jj Wetherholt 33 D +750 · 165 0.132 89.9 7.6% 15.3%vs RHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 6.6% 38

5 Nathan Church 32 D — COOL 176 0.123 85.9 7.0% 14.6%vs RHP 384 8.9% 12.5% 6.5% 26

6 Ivan Herrera 30 D +850 COOL 187 0.137 89.2 6.7% 17.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 32

7 José Fermín 29 D — WARM 190 0.127 86.6 4.6% 7.7%vs RHP 390 6.7% 12.5% 5.9% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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