TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ SEA

Neutral air · 1.04×

PHI @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 4:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 6 mph out 74°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+8 ↑

1:10p

+8 ↑

2:10p

+9 ↑

3:10p

+10 ↑

4:10p

+9 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 4:10p window peaks +10

Best of game Cal Raleigh conv 27 · vs Luzardo ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 29 · vs Woo → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Jesús Luzardo LHP · PHI

leak 70

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cal Raleigh +370 C ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena +575 C ●●●●○

3 Julio Rodríguez +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Bryan Woo RHP · SEA

leak 38

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.30 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +245 C+ ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +400 C ●●○○○

3 Brandon Marsh +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 17.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Woo Edge +245 0.285 · 92.8 · 11.0% 25.0% 33.2% F B O C+ 67

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Luzardo Edge +370 0.169 · 89.4 · 9.3% 33.3% 21.2% F B O C 50

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Luzardo Edge +575 0.191 · 90.8 · 7.0% 30.8% 23.7% F B O C 50

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Woo Edge +400 0.237 · 90.4 · 8.9% 8.3% 17.7% F B O C 55

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Luzardo +850 0.222 · 91.2 · 8.8% 7.7% 17.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Luzardo Edge +525 0.163 · 90.0 · 7.8% 15.4% 13.0% F B O D 45

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Luzardo +950 0.142 · 88.7 · 5.4% 16.7% 9.2% F B O D 38

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Woo Edge +700 0.160 · 89.4 · 7.8% 10.0% 10.2% F B O D 44

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Woo +950 0.140 · 90.5 · 6.3% 9.1% 8.7% F B O D 40

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Woo Edge +750 0.146 · 89.2 · 6.4% 9.1% 8.1% F B O D 39

· SEA J.P. Crawford vs Luzardo — 0.133 · 87.6 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 34

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Woo +750 0.144 · 88.6 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 40

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Woo +850 0.134 · 89.9 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 34

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Luzardo — 0.100 · 87.4 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 31

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Woo Edge — 0.088 · 87.2 · 3.1% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.6% ← leak BRK 28.2% OFF 6.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

16.9% 14.7% 28.1% 17.4% C+ 67 +245

Bryce Harper L Edge

12.0% 12.8% 6.9% 11.2% C 55 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brandon Marsh L Edge

6.9% 15.1% 3.6% 8.6% D 44 +700

115

Trea Turner R

7.8% 4.2% 2.4% 6.0% D 40 +750

116

Alec Bohm R

4.5% 6.7% 10.5% 5.7% D 40 +950

122

Bryson Stott L Edge

7.5% 3.7% 4.6% 5.8% D 39 +750

160

J.T. Realmuto R

3.6% 6.1% 4.0% 4.3% D 34 +850

199

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.9% 1.2% 0.0% 1.4% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.6% usage) carries Woo's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 43.4% ← leak BRK 38.1% OFF 18.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Dominic Canzone L

14.7% 10.7% 8.2% 12.1% C 51 +850

Randy Arozarena R Edge

8.1% 8.0% 6.5% 7.8% C 50 +575

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.7% 15.4% 12.5% 12.2% C 50 +370

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

9.9% 7.8% 8.7% 9.1% D 45 +525

128

Cole Young L

4.0% 8.6% 1.6% 4.6% D 38 +950

161

J.P. Crawford L

5.2% 7.1% 11.5% 6.4% D 34 —

181

Josh Naylor L

4.3% 8.0% 1.5% 4.6% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.4% usage) carries Luzardo's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Arozarena Raleigh Rodríguez

Legend

attack side — vs Luzardo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kyle Schwarber +245 · 67

Cal Raleigh +370 · 50

Randy Arozarena +575 · 50

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 6 mph out 74°F retractable

↑

7 mph · out

73°F

1:10p

↑

7 mph · out

76°F

2:10p

↑

7 mph · out

77°F

3:10p

+10

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

4:10p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 74°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryan Woo · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.30 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 67 C+ +245 COOL 4 0.285 92.8 11.0% 42.9%vs RHP 402 22.8% 25.0% 33.2% 37

2 Bryce Harper 55 C +400 · 25 0.237 90.4 8.9% 34.4%vs RHP 402 18.8% 8.3% 17.7% 31

3 Brandon Marsh 44 D +700 COOL 88 0.160 89.4 7.8% 19.2%vs RHP 391 11.8% 10.0% 10.2% 27

4 Trea Turner 40 D +750 COOL 115 0.144 88.6 6.5% 19.4%vs RHP 392 12.9% 0.0% 9.6% 33

5 Alec Bohm 40 D +950 WARM 116 0.140 90.5 6.3% 13.8%vs RHP 397 10.7% 9.1% 8.7% 39

6 Bryson Stott 39 D +750 COOL 122 0.146 89.2 6.4% 8.8%vs RHP 385 7.4% 9.1% 8.1% 36

7 J.T. Realmuto 34 D +850 COOL 160 0.134 89.9 5.5% 16.7%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 27

8 Justin Crawford 28 D — COOL 199 0.088 87.2 3.1% 4.3%vs RHP 382 2.1% 0.0% 6.7% 31

vs Jesús Luzardo · LHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 51 C +850 COOL 39 0.222 91.2 8.8% 36.4%vs LHP 402 14.8% 7.7% 17.9% 38

2 Randy Arozarena 50 C +575 COOL 45 0.191 90.8 7.0% 24.0%vs LHP 386 14.9% 30.8% 23.7% 35

3 Cal Raleigh 50 C +370 WARM 50 0.169 89.4 9.3% 25.0%vs LHP 388 15.1% 33.3% 21.2% 26

4 Julio Rodríguez 45 D +525 WARM 76 0.163 90.0 7.8% 23.1%vs LHP 404 16.5% 15.4% 13.0% 37

5 Cole Young 38 D +950 COOL 128 0.142 88.7 5.4% 11.8%vs LHP 383 11.8% 16.7% 9.2% 38

6 J.P. Crawford 34 D — WARM 161 0.133 87.6 6.4% 10.0%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 2

7 Josh Naylor 31 D — COOL 181 0.100 87.4 5.5% 11.1%vs LHP 392 6.4% 0.0% 8.0% 46

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.