TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.91×

BOS @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 6:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 9 mph in 84°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-14 ↑

6:40p

-13 ↑

7:40p

-12 ↑

8:40p

-7 ↑

9:40p

-1 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -1

Best of game Willson Contreras conv 27 · vs Gusto ⟷ Owen Caissie conv 15 · vs Gray → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Ryan Gusto RHP · MIA

leak 91

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willson Contreras +475 C ●●●●○

2 Jarren Duran +700 D ●●○○○

3 Wilyer Abreu +390 D ●○○○○

FADE Sonny Gray RHP · BOS

leak 74

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Owen Caissie +700 D ●●○○○

2 Jakob Marsee +800 D ●●○○○

3 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 13.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ COOL vs Gusto +475 0.247 · 89.9 · 10.8% 25.0% 28.1% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Gusto Edge +700 0.155 · 89.6 · 8.8% 18.2% 11.9% F B O D 41

· MIA Owen Caissie vs Gray Edge +700 0.200 · 91.2 · 9.8% 12.5% 17.2% F B O D 44

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Gray Edge +800 0.113 · 87.2 · 4.8% 20.0% 7.5% F B O D 29

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Gray — 0.143 · 86.7 · 3.8% 20.0% 7.1% F B O D 29

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Gray +525 0.222 · 91.6 · 9.4% 0.0% 22.2% F B O D 42

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Gusto Edge +390 0.208 · 89.9 · 10.4% 7.7% 10.3% F B O D 47

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Gusto +950 0.142 · 83.6 · 4.8% 8.3% 8.5% F B O D 31

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Gray Edge +425 0.220 · 92.2 · 8.7% 0.0% 15.8% F B O D 44

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Gusto +850 0.172 · 86.4 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 37

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Gusto +850 0.160 · 88.2 · 7.9% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 36

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Gray +950 0.138 · 89.0 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 31

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Gray Edge — 0.096 · 86.8 · 4.8% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.8% ← leak BRK 30.9% OFF 15.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R

11.1% 15.3% 23.7% 13.8% C 56 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

11.3% 15.4% 11.9% 12.4% D 47 +390

109

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.0% 6.7% 7.0% 9.5% D 41 +700

142

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.4% 6.9% 11.3% 5.6% D 37 +850

152

Andruw Monasterio R

7.4% 6.5% 12.5% 7.4% D 36 +850

180

Caleb Durbin R

3.0% 2.1% 2.6% 2.7% D 31 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.8% usage) carries Gusto's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.1% ← leak BRK 36.6% OFF 5.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Owen Caissie L Edge

16.0% 9.3% 17.6% 14.6% D 44 +700

Kyle Stowers L Edge

10.0% 16.9% 7.3% 11.3% D 44 +425

Heriberto Hernández R

12.9% 14.1% 14.3% 13.4% D 42 +525

182

Otto Lopez R

8.7% 3.7% 2.9% 6.0% D 31 +950

189

Javier Sanoja R

2.3% 3.0% 0.0% 2.3% D 29 —

192

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.1% 1.8% 7.5% 3.4% D 29 +800

209

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.1% 2.2% 2.6% 3.4% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.1% usage) carries Gray's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Duran Caissie Sanoja Marsee

Legend

attack side — vs Gusto fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Willson Contreras +475 · 56

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.83× Wind 9 mph in 84°F retractable

-14

↑

11 mph · in

87°F

6:40p

-13

↑

10 mph · in

86°F

7:40p

-12

↑

10 mph · in

84°F

8:40p

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

81°F

9:40p

-1

↑

9 mph · slight_out

78°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 84°F, wind 9 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Gusto · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 56 C +475 COOL 20 0.247 89.9 10.8% 32.2%vs RHP 405 19.8% 25.0% 28.1% 36

2 Wilyer Abreu 47 D +390 · 65 0.208 89.9 10.4% 17.0%vs RHP 407 15.6% 7.7% 10.3% 40

3 Jarren Duran 41 D +700 · 109 0.155 89.6 8.8% 29.1%vs RHP 398 13.8% 18.2% 11.9% 30

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 37 D +850 COOL 142 0.172 86.4 6.9% 16.4%vs RHP 382 12.6% 0.0% 9.8% 41

5 Andruw Monasterio 36 D +850 COOL 152 0.160 88.2 7.9% 2.2%vs RHP 390 10.9% 0.0% 7.2% 43

6 Caleb Durbin 31 D +950 COOL 180 0.142 83.6 4.8% 19.6%vs RHP 376 8.9% 8.3% 8.5% 44

vs Sonny Gray · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 44 D +700 · 83 0.200 91.2 9.8% 27.1%vs RHP 398 14.1% 12.5% 17.2% 14

2 Kyle Stowers 44 D +425 WARM 84 0.220 92.2 8.7% 23.4%vs RHP 396 13.3% 0.0% 15.8% 3

3 Heriberto Hernández 42 D +525 WARM 98 0.222 91.6 9.4% 21.7%vs RHP 407 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 31

4 Otto Lopez 31 D +950 · 182 0.138 89.0 6.4% 9.6%vs RHP 402 6.2% 0.0% 6.9% 47

5 Javier Sanoja 29 D — · 189 0.143 86.7 3.8% 6.8%vs RHP 378 6.8% 20.0% 7.1% 39

6 Jakob Marsee 29 D +800 · 192 0.113 87.2 4.8% 10.3%vs RHP 381 7.7% 20.0% 7.5% 34

7 Xavier Edwards 24 D — COOL 209 0.096 86.8 4.8% 2.6%vs RHP 396 3.9% 0.0% 5.5% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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