TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.97×

TB @ DET

Comerica Park · 1:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 10 mph cross 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

1:10p

-7 ↑

2:10p

-6 ↑

3:10p

-6 ↑

4:10p

-5 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks -5

Best of game Colt Keith conv 12 · vs Peralta ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 9 · vs Melton → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 78

1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.47 · leakiest side of this game

1 Colt Keith +625 D ●●○○○

2 Dillon Dingler +500 C ●○○○○

3 Gleyber Torres +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Troy Melton RHP · DET

leak 17

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +350 C ●○○○○

2 Jonathan Aranda +525 D ●○○○○

3 Jonny Deluca +850 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ COOL vs Melton +350 0.253 · 93.1 · 9.1% 0.0% 17.3% F B O C 56

· — Dillon Dingler COOL vs Peralta +500 0.230 · 88.6 · 8.2% 0.0% 16.8% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· — Colt Keith vs Peralta Edge +625 0.149 · 89.1 · 6.9% 14.3% 9.5% F B O D 41

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Melton Edge +525 0.140 · 91.0 · 7.8% 8.3% 8.9% F B O D 41

· — Gleyber Torres COOL vs Peralta +850 0.123 · 86.1 · 6.4% 8.3% 8.0% F B O D 38

· — Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Peralta +500 0.185 · 89.4 · 9.0% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 48

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Melton +850 0.166 · 85.5 · 5.0% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 34

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Melton +625 0.161 · 90.7 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 37

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Melton Edge +575 0.146 · 87.7 · 5.0% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 37

· — Kevin Mcgonigle HOT vs Peralta Edge +700 0.147 · 88.2 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 41

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Melton Edge — 0.111 · 86.2 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 31

· — Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Peralta Edge — 0.104 · 85.6 · 3.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 31

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Melton — 0.100 · 85.2 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 29

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Melton Edge — 0.075 · 85.4 · 3.6% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 26

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Melton Edge — 0.054 · 83.9 · — 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 17

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.0% ← leak BRK 23.8% OFF 11.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

15.3% 11.9% 7.5% 13.1% C 56 +350

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

112

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.4% 13.2% 4.6% 9.9% D 41 +525

138

Yandy Diaz R

5.6% 10.4% 4.0% 6.9% D 37 +625

149

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.6% 3.0% 8.1% 4.1% D 37 +575

162

Jonny Deluca R

4.8% 3.8% 0.0% 4.0% D 34 +850

185

Richie Palacios L Edge

4.7% 1.7% 3.1% 3.6% D 31 —

195

Nick Fortes R

2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 2.2% D 29 —

207

Taylor Walls S Edge

2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 26 —

212

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 17 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.0% usage) carries Melton's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.7% ← leak BRK 23.7% OFF 22.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dillon Dingler R

11.9% 8.3% 6.7% 10.3% C 53 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Spencer Torkelson R

13.4% 10.8% 12.5% 12.6% D 48 +500

110

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.4% 7.7% 1.5% 7.1% D 41 +700

111

Colt Keith L Edge

6.8% 15.2% 3.1% 7.4% D 41 +625

135

Gleyber Torres R

7.9% 5.0% 0.0% 6.4% D 38 +850

186

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.2% 1.7% 0.0% 2.3% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.7% usage) carries Peralta's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Peralta fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 10 mph cross 75°F open

-7

↑

11 mph · cross

72°F

1:10p

-7

↑

11 mph · cross

74°F

2:10p

-6

↑

12 mph · cross

76°F

3:10p

-6

↑

12 mph · cross

79°F

4:10p

-5

↑

12 mph · cross

81°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.97× 75°F, wind 10 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Troy Melton · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 56 C +350 COOL 23 0.253 93.1 9.1% 39.4%vs RHP 413 24.8% 0.0% 17.3% 43

2 Jonathan Aranda 41 D +525 COOL 112 0.140 91.0 7.8% 15.6%vs RHP 386 11.4% 8.3% 8.9% 35

3 Yandy Diaz 37 D +625 COOL 138 0.161 90.7 6.5% 24.5%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 47

4 Cedric Mullins 37 D +575 WARM 149 0.146 87.7 5.0% 17.8%vs RHP 389 11.5% 0.0% 9.5% 29

5 Jonny Deluca 34 D +850 COOL 162 0.166 85.5 5.0% 24.0%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 35

6 Richie Palacios 31 D — COOL 185 0.111 86.2 4.8% 11.1%vs RHP 398 4.1% 0.0% 7.8% 32

7 Nick Fortes 29 D — COOL 195 0.100 85.2 3.7% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 7.1% 11

8 Taylor Walls 26 D — COOL 207 0.075 85.4 3.6% 2.5%vs RHP 383 0.9% 0.0% 6.7% 31

9 Chandler Simpson 17 D — COOL 212 0.054 83.9 — 2.4%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 45

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.47 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 53 C +500 COOL 34 0.230 88.6 8.2% 29.6%vs RHP 398 19.0% 0.0% 16.8% 33

2 Spencer Torkelson 48 D +500 COOL 60 0.185 89.4 9.0% 23.0%vs RHP 394 14.2% 0.0% 12.6% 21

3 Kevin Mcgonigle 41 D +700 HOT 110 0.147 88.2 6.9% 9.9%vs RHP 397 20.0% 0.0% 8.8% 44

4 Colt Keith 41 D +625 WARM 111 0.149 89.1 6.9% 13.4%vs RHP 385 6.6% 14.3% 9.5% 20

5 Gleyber Torres 38 D +850 COOL 135 0.123 86.1 6.4% 14.0%vs RHP 393 9.4% 8.3% 8.0% 43

6 Zach Mckinstry 31 D — COOL 186 0.104 85.6 3.9% 6.2%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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