TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.87×

MIN @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.25× Wind 9 mph out 93°F Roof open

Hourly window

+18 ↑

6:05p

+19 ↑

7:05p

+18 ↑

8:05p

+17 ↑

9:05p

+14 ↑

10:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +19

Best of game Lawrence Butler conv 21 · vs Prielipp ⟷ Brooks Lee conv 25 · vs Ginn → edge: Byron Buxton

ATTACK Connor Prielipp LHP · MIN

leak 91

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lawrence Butler +575 C ●●●○○

2 Zack Gelof +425 C ●●●○○

3 Jeff Mcneil — D ●●○○○

FADE J.T. Ginn RHP · ATH

leak 65

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brooks Lee +500 C ●●●●○

2 Kody Clemens +330 C ●●○○○

3 Luke Keaschall +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Byron Buxton: 16.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Ginn Edge +500 0.183 · 87.9 · 4.7% 25.0% 25.1% F B O C 53

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Prielipp +575 0.138 · 89.3 · 7.7% 23.1% 18.8% F B O C 50

· ATH Zack Gelof vs Prielipp Edge +425 0.203 · 88.8 · 8.1% 20.0% 21.3% F B O C 58

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Ginn Edge +330 0.226 · 92.4 · 8.1% 9.1% 18.8% F B O C 59

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Ginn Edge +370 0.171 · 89.8 · 7.5% 9.1% 14.4% F B O C 51

· MIN Byron Buxton ✶ COOL vs Ginn +255 0.259 · 90.2 · 9.5% 0.0% 22.2% F B O C+ 64

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Ginn +330 0.171 · 89.9 · 8.1% 0.0% 13.3% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· ATH Jeff Mcneil HOT vs Prielipp — 0.095 · 86.8 · 3.8% 25.0% 7.4% F B O D 38

· MIN Luke Keaschall HOT vs Ginn +850 0.112 · 85.2 · 4.6% 16.7% 9.8% F B O D 41

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Prielipp Edge +500 0.097 · 91.0 · 7.6% 7.7% 14.5% F B O D 45

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Prielipp — 0.140 · 89.3 · 7.0% 9.1% 9.7% F B O D 46

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Ginn Edge +575 0.150 · 87.6 · 6.5% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 46

· MIN Victor Caratini vs Ginn Edge — 0.104 · 89.4 · 6.1% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.4% ← leak OFF 20.0% BRK 15.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Byron Buxton R

18.2% 12.1% 13.8% 16.1% C+ 64 +255

Kody Clemens L Edge

9.6% 11.1% 18.6% 11.8% C 59 +330

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.5% 1.0% 0.0% 3.9% C 53 +500

Royce Lewis R

14.6% 9.4% 6.8% 11.7% C 52 +330

Josh Bell S Edge

10.3% 6.2% 12.2% 9.7% C 51 +370

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Trevor Larnach L Edge

7.6% 4.7% 8.8% 7.4% D 46 +575

107

Luke Keaschall R

4.2% 0.0% 3.1% 3.5% D 41 +850

118

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.7% 5.7% 11.4% 6.6% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.4% usage) carries Ginn's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 47.2% FB 42.0% OFF 10.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Zack Gelof R Edge

4.4% 9.4% 16.7% 8.4% C 58 +425

Lawrence Butler L

9.4% 7.8% 3.5% 7.2% C 50 +575

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Carlos Cortes L

3.6% 7.0% 7.4% 6.2% D 46 —

Henry Bolte R Edge

9.3% 7.2% 3.7% 7.3% D 45 +500

133

Jeff Mcneil L

3.0% 1.6% 1.4% 1.8% D 38 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Prielipp's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 2 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Buxton Clemens Lee Keaschall Gelof Butler Mcneil

Legend

attack side — vs Prielipp fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Brooks Lee +500 · 53

Lawrence Butler +575 · 50

Zack Gelof +425 · 58

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:05p · roof open

Park 1.25× Wind 9 mph out 93°F open

+18

↑

9 mph · out

94°F

6:05p

+19

↑

10 mph · out

90°F

7:05p · peak

+18

↑

10 mph · out

86°F

8:05p

+17

↑

9 mph · out

82°F

9:05p

+14

↑

7 mph · out

79°F

10:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.87× 93°F, wind 9 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs J.T. Ginn · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton ✶ 64 C+ +255 COOL 9 0.259 90.2 9.5% 30.4%vs RHP 402 25.3% 0.0% 22.2% 27

2 Kody Clemens 59 C +330 · 15 0.226 92.4 8.1% 18.4%vs RHP 391 16.3% 9.1% 18.8% 30

3 Brooks Lee 53 C +500 · 31 0.183 87.9 4.7% 21.0%vs RHP 372 15.7% 25.0% 25.1% 38

4 Royce Lewis 52 C +330 COOL 38 0.171 89.9 8.1% 16.4%vs RHP 400 14.6% 0.0% 13.3% 38

5 Josh Bell 51 C +370 COOL 41 0.171 89.8 7.5% 19.7%vs RHP 407 11.5% 9.1% 14.4% 34

6 Trevor Larnach 46 D +575 WARM 68 0.150 87.6 6.5% 15.0%vs RHP 397 8.9% 0.0% 11.9% 21

7 Luke Keaschall 41 D +850 HOT 107 0.112 85.2 4.6% 11.0%vs RHP 374 7.0% 16.7% 9.8% 39

8 Victor Caratini 39 D — · 118 0.104 89.4 6.1% 16.2%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 14

vs Connor Prielipp · LHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 58 C +425 WARM 17 0.203 88.8 8.1% 18.8%vs LHP 397 19.6% 20.0% 21.3% 34

2 Lawrence Butler 50 C +575 WARM 46 0.138 89.3 7.7% 23.1%vs LHP 409 8.0% 23.1% 18.8% 32

3 Carlos Cortes 46 D — COOL 71 0.140 89.3 7.0% 11.3% 403 5.4% 9.1% 9.7% 26

4 Henry Bolte 45 D +500 COOL 73 0.097 91.0 7.6% 41.7%vs LHP 410 9.6% 7.7% 14.5% 38

5 Jeff Mcneil 38 D — HOT 133 0.095 86.8 3.8% 0.0%vs LHP 381 5.1% 25.0% 7.4% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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