TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.15×

HOU @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 10 mph slight_out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

7:05p

+6 ↑

8:05p

+5 ↑

9:05p

+5 ↑

10:05p

+5 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +6

Best of game Jeremy Peña conv 21 · vs Proxy ⟷ Cody Bellinger conv 30 · vs Lambert → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK NYY Bullpen Proxy · NYY

leak 44

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jeremy Peña +700 D ●●●○○

2 Yainer Diaz +850 D ●●●○○

3 Isaac Paredes +575 D ●●○○○

FADE Peter Lambert RHP · HOU

leak 10

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cody Bellinger +500 D ●●●●●

2 Trent Grisham +350 C ●●●●○

3 Ben Rice +330 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 14.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Lambert Edge +350 0.201 · 90.9 · 8.4% 33.3% 21.0% F B O C 54

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Lambert Edge +330 0.274 · 92.2 · 10.1% 16.7% 20.4% F B O C+ 63

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Proxy +500 0.205 · 89.2 · 9.0% 11.1% 13.6% F B O C 52

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Proxy +750 0.172 · 89.3 · 11.4% 11.1% 11.0% F B O C 51

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Proxy +245 0.295 · 94.5 · 17.3% 0.0% 16.8% F B O C+ 66

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Lambert — 0.200 · 86.5 · 8.4% 0.0% 16.5% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Lambert Edge +500 0.158 · 89.1 · 6.5% 50.0% 10.5% F B O D 44

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Proxy +700 0.184 · 88.4 · 5.6% 22.2% 18.8% F B O D 47

· HOU Yainer Diaz HOT vs Proxy +850 0.138 · 87.9 · 5.4% 20.0% 14.9% F B O D 41

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Proxy +575 0.167 · 85.9 · 5.2% 18.2% 10.3% F B O D 42

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Proxy — 0.129 · 86.0 · 2.3% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 32

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.177 · 90.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 44

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Proxy +700 0.154 · 85.1 · 4.8% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 35

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Lambert +750 0.142 · 83.9 · 5.5% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 35

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Lambert Edge +500 0.117 · 89.1 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for NYY Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 51.6% ← leak BRK 24.9% OFF 23.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Ben Rice L Edge

17.0% 12.6% 11.9% 14.8% C+ 63 +330

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.4% 7.3% 7.1% 10.1% C 54 +350

Paul Goldschmidt R

13.8% 4.5% 8.8% 10.3% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Jazz Chisholm L Edge

7.5% 12.2% 6.8% 8.9% D 44 —

Cody Bellinger L Edge

3.2% 11.4% 9.1% 6.1% D 44 +500

123

Austin Wells L Edge

8.5% 5.4% 0.0% 6.5% D 39 +500

154

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 35 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.6% usage) carries Lambert's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Peña Paredes Diaz Rice Grisham Bellinger

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Trent Grisham +350 · 54

Jeremy Peña +700 · 47

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 10 mph slight_out 75°F open

↑

10 mph · slight_out

76°F

7:05p · peak

↑

11 mph · slight_out

73°F

8:05p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

72°F

9:05p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

72°F

10:05p

↑

8 mph · slight_out

71°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.15× 75°F, wind 10 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs NYY Bullpen Proxy 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 66 C+ +245 COOL 12 0.295 94.5 17.3% 22.4% 404 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 29

2 Christian Walker 52 C +500 COOL 55 0.205 89.2 9.0% 19.3% 392 17.2% 11.1% 13.6% 25

3 Cam Smith 51 C +750 COOL 62 0.172 89.3 11.4% 16.7% 408 12.9% 11.1% 11.0% 23

4 Jeremy Peña 47 D +700 WARM 96 0.184 88.4 5.6% 18.7% 384 15.5% 22.2% 18.8% 26

5 Isaac Paredes 42 D +575 COOL 126 0.167 85.9 5.2% 9.9% 377 12.0% 18.2% 10.3% 38

6 Yainer Diaz 41 D +850 HOT 136 0.138 87.9 5.4% 16.7% 398 10.8% 20.0% 14.9% 18

7 Jose Altuve 35 D +700 COOL 178 0.154 85.1 4.8% 15.9% 378 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 27

8 Christian Vazquez 32 D — WARM 196 0.129 86.0 2.3% 11.7% 375 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 12

vs Peter Lambert · RHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 63 C+ +330 WARM 11 0.274 92.2 10.1% 30.9%vs RHP 394 24.2% 16.7% 20.4% 33

2 Trent Grisham 54 C +350 WARM 26 0.201 90.9 8.4% 21.7%vs RHP 388 14.3% 33.3% 21.0% 31

3 Paul Goldschmidt 50 C — COOL 47 0.200 86.5 8.4% 18.4%vs RHP 390 15.7% 0.0% 16.5% 2

4 Jazz Chisholm 44 D — COOL 86 0.177 90.7 7.8% 22.0%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 30

5 Cody Bellinger 44 D +500 WARM 94 0.158 89.1 6.5% 10.3%vs RHP 379 10.0% 50.0% 10.5% 7

6 Austin Wells 39 D +500 COOL 123 0.117 89.1 6.7% 13.6%vs RHP 387 8.7% 0.0% 7.3% 20

7 Jose Caballero 35 D +750 WARM 154 0.142 83.9 5.5% 19.5%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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