TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ SD

Petco Park is live · 1.53×

PIT @ SD

Petco Park · 4:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 10 mph out 92°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

1:10p

+7 ↑

2:10p

+4 ↑

3:10p

+2 ↑

4:10p

+0 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 2:10p at +7

Best of game Oneil Cruz conv 38 · vs Vásquez ⟷ Jackson Merrill conv 16 · vs Chandler → edge: Oneil Cruz

ATTACK Randy Vásquez RHP · SD

leak 56

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Oneil Cruz +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Brandon Lowe +320 C ●●●○○

3 Jared Triolo — D ●○○○○

FADE Bubba Chandler RHP · PIT

leak 4

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Merrill +425 D ●●○○○

2 Gavin Sheets +575 D ●●○○○

3 Xander Bogaerts +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Oneil Cruz: 17.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Oneil Cruz ✶ vs Vásquez Edge +305 0.222 · 95.7 · 13.2% 50.0% 25.7% F B O C+ 61

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Vásquez Edge +320 0.223 · 91.2 · 10.9% 16.7% 19.1% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Chandler Edge +425 0.173 · 90.7 · 8.1% 16.7% 14.5% F B O D 45

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Chandler Edge +575 0.179 · 87.5 · 6.4% 11.1% 17.2% F B O D 41

· SD Xander Bogaerts HOT vs Chandler +850 0.108 · 89.0 · 6.0% 16.7% 7.9% F B O D 33

· SD Ty France COOL vs Chandler +525 0.219 · 92.1 · 7.6% 8.3% 11.8% F B O D 46

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Chandler +475 0.191 · 90.7 · 7.6% 8.3% 10.2% F B O D 45

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Vásquez — 0.066 · 87.2 · 4.8% 8.3% 6.9% F B O D 27

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Chandler Edge +750 0.076 · 87.1 · 4.5% 8.3% 6.7% F B O D 27

· SD Fernando Tatis HOT vs Chandler — 0.162 · 93.0 · 8.6% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 38

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Vásquez Edge +425 0.163 · 90.5 · 10.5% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 44

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Vásquez Edge +525 0.143 · 86.8 · 8.4% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 38

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Vásquez +950 0.089 · 86.1 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 28

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Vásquez Edge — 0.090 · 85.3 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 27

· SD Freddy Fermin COOL vs Chandler +950 0.116 · 87.2 · 4.7% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 70.2% ← leak BRK 21.9% OFF 7.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Oneil Cruz L Edge

17.5% 21.3% 10.0% 17.2% C+ 61 +305

Brandon Lowe L Edge

15.7% 7.5% 10.0% 12.0% C 54 +320

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.6% 12.4% 8.0% 11.0% D 44 +425

132

Spencer Horwitz L Edge

6.9% 6.2% 10.0% 7.1% D 38 +525

197

Nick Gonzales R

2.2% 4.5% 0.0% 2.6% D 28 +950

204

Jared Triolo R

2.9% 2.4% 0.0% 2.4% D 27 —

205

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.5% 1.1% 0.0% 2.1% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.2% usage) carries Vásquez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.1% ← leak BRK 29.4% OFF 15.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Ty France R

10.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.1% D 46 +525

Jackson Merrill L Edge

13.4% 10.3% 8.0% 11.4% D 45 +425

Manny Machado R

11.8% 6.1% 8.9% 9.9% D 45 +475

103

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.7% 5.9% 1.7% 7.2% D 41 +575

127

Fernando Tatis R

10.9% 14.4% 17.0% 12.6% D 38 —

166

Xander Bogaerts R

7.2% 4.5% 3.4% 6.2% D 33 +850

191

Freddy Fermin R

2.8% 4.9% 9.1% 3.8% D 29 +950

206

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

3.7% 2.6% 3.6% 3.5% D 27 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.1% usage) carries Chandler's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Lowe Merrill Sheets

Legend

attack side — vs Vásquez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Oneil Cruz +305 · 61

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 10 mph out 92°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

92°F

1:10p

↑

10 mph · out

94°F

2:10p · peak

↑

8 mph · slight_out

94°F

3:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

93°F

4:10p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

91°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.53× 92°F, wind 10 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +7 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Randy Vásquez · RHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz ✶ 61 C+ +305 WARM 14 0.222 95.7 13.2% 37.1%vs RHP 415 25.8% 50.0% 25.7% 12

2 Brandon Lowe 54 C +320 COOL 27 0.223 91.2 10.9% 25.6%vs RHP 391 16.7% 16.7% 19.1% 29

3 Bryan Reynolds 44 D +425 · 91 0.163 90.5 10.5% 16.1%vs RHP 409 10.8% 0.0% 9.0% 40

4 Spencer Horwitz 38 D +525 COOL 132 0.143 86.8 8.4% 15.2%vs RHP 395 9.6% 0.0% 7.8% 29

5 Nick Gonzales 28 D +950 COOL 197 0.089 86.1 5.1% 10.6%vs RHP 397 6.5% 0.0% 7.1% 31

6 Jared Triolo 27 D — COOL 204 0.066 87.2 4.8% 9.1%vs RHP 407 1.4% 8.3% 6.9% 36

7 Jake Mangum 27 D — WARM 205 0.090 85.3 4.6% 10.3%vs RHP 393 4.6% 0.0% 6.7% 27

vs Bubba Chandler · RHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 46 D +525 COOL 66 0.219 92.1 7.6% 27.5%vs RHP 394 15.6% 8.3% 11.8% 32

2 Jackson Merrill 45 D +425 WARM 74 0.173 90.7 8.1% 21.2%vs RHP 412 16.0% 16.7% 14.5% 29

3 Manny Machado 45 D +475 COOL 79 0.191 90.7 7.6% 26.7%vs RHP 397 17.3% 8.3% 10.2% 37

4 Gavin Sheets 41 D +575 COOL 103 0.179 87.5 6.4% 30.9%vs RHP 395 10.4% 11.1% 17.2% 14

5 Fernando Tatis 38 D — HOT 127 0.162 93.0 8.6% 14.3%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 40

6 Xander Bogaerts 33 D +850 HOT 166 0.108 89.0 6.0% 16.1%vs RHP 400 8.1% 16.7% 7.9% 32

7 Freddy Fermin 29 D +950 COOL 191 0.116 87.2 4.7% 6.7%vs RHP 382 2.5% 0.0% 5.4% 16

8 Jake Cronenworth 27 D +750 COOL 206 0.076 87.1 4.5% 8.8%vs RHP 392 2.4% 8.3% 6.7% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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