TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.19×

LAD @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 2 mph cross 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

7:15p

-1 ↑

8:15p

-2 ↑

9:15p

-3 ↑

10:15p

-3 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +0

Best of game Matt Olson conv 15 · vs Sasaki ⟷ Max Muncy conv 37 · vs Smith-Shawver → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Roki Sasaki RHP · LAD

leak 89

1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +330 C+ ●●○○○

2 Drake Baldwin +425 C ●●○○○

3 Austin Riley +500 C ●●○○○

FADE AJ Smith-Shawver RHP · ATL

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.62 · stingy — thin edge

1 Max Muncy +350 C+ ●●●●●

2 Shohei Ohtani +255 C+ ●●●●○

3 Mookie Betts +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 24.1% · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ vs Smith-Shawver Edge +350 0.253 · 90.6 · 10.1% 50.0% 24.1% F B O C+ 67

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Smith-Shawver Edge +255 0.257 · 93.5 · 11.1% 25.0% 23.8% F B O C+ 66

· ATL Matt Olson vs Sasaki Edge +330 0.273 · 92.6 · 12.2% 8.3% 21.8% F B O C+ 69

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Sasaki Edge +425 0.175 · 91.8 · 11.1% 8.3% 14.3% F B O C 57

· ATL Austin Riley vs Sasaki +500 0.143 · 91.4 · 10.7% 8.3% 11.4% F B O C 51

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Sasaki Edge — 0.198 · 90.6 · 10.1% 0.0% 15.8% F B O C 52

· ATL Ronald Acuna COOL vs Sasaki — 0.177 · 90.1 · 10.9% 0.0% 15.0% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Smith-Shawver +525 0.171 · 90.1 · 7.5% 16.7% 8.7% F B O D 47

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Sasaki Edge +625 0.156 · 90.8 · 8.2% 0.0% 14.9% F B O D 48

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Sasaki Edge +700 0.165 · 86.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 47

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Sasaki Edge +950 0.124 · 87.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 44

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Sasaki — 0.126 · 86.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 39

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Smith-Shawver Edge +500 0.160 · 89.8 · 8.0% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 45

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Smith-Shawver +525 0.146 · 89.7 · 8.2% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 41

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Smith-Shawver Edge +500 0.132 · 89.0 · 6.5% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 44.1% OFF 34.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Max Muncy L Edge

16.0% 8.5% 13.6% C+ 67 +350

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

19.6% 15.8% 16.4% C+ 66 +255

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Mookie Betts R

8.5% 8.1% 7.5% D 47 +525

Freddie Freeman L Edge

9.0% 7.9% 8.6% D 45 +500

102

Teoscar Hernandez R

9.0% 6.7% 8.9% D 41 +525

117

Kyle Tucker L Edge

8.3% 1.3% 5.7% D 40 +500

Read the columns: no single family leads Smith-Shawver's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.1% ← leak OFF 36.6% BRK 21.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Matt Olson L Edge

18.1% 11.4% 11.8% 15.4% C+ 69 +330

Drake Baldwin L Edge

12.5% 4.1% 19.5% 13.0% C 57 +425

Michael Harris L Edge

7.2% 13.4% 13.1% 10.3% C 52 —

Austin Riley R

12.6% 5.4% 13.8% 12.1% C 51 +500

Ronald Acuna R

12.7% 14.3% 10.4% 12.4% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.5% 5.9% 7.3% 7.2% D 48 +625

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.4% 2.8% 1.6% 4.1% D 47 +700

Dominic Smith L Edge

5.7% 2.5% 7.3% 5.5% D 44 +950

119

Mauricio Dubon R

3.1% 4.7% 5.4% 4.0% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.1% usage) carries Sasaki's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Ohtani Olson

Legend

attack side — vs Sasaki fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Max Muncy +350 · 67

Shohei Ohtani +255 · 66

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 2 mph cross 83°F open

↑

4 mph · in

82°F

7:15p · peak

-1

↑

5 mph · in

81°F

8:15p

-2

↑

5 mph · in

78°F

9:15p

-3

↑

6 mph · in

76°F

10:15p

-3

↑

6 mph · in

74°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 83°F, wind 2 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs AJ Smith-Shawver · RHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.62 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy ✶ 67 C+ +350 · 5 0.253 90.6 10.1% 27.7%vs RHP 411 21.8% 50.0% 24.1% 52

2 Shohei Ohtani 66 C+ +255 · 6 0.257 93.5 11.1% 26.5%vs RHP 407 19.7% 25.0% 23.8% 33

3 Mookie Betts 47 D +525 COOL 63 0.171 90.1 7.5% 16.2%vs RHP 389 11.2% 16.7% 8.7% 42

4 Freddie Freeman 45 D +500 COOL 80 0.160 89.8 8.0% 14.3%vs RHP 398 10.2% 0.0% 8.0% 34

5 Teoscar Hernandez 41 D +525 WARM 102 0.146 89.7 8.2% 17.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 25

6 Kyle Tucker 40 D +500 COOL 117 0.132 89.0 6.5% 11.0%vs RHP 392 7.3% 0.0% 6.3% 34

vs Roki Sasaki · RHP 1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 69 C+ +330 · 2 0.273 92.6 12.2% 33.3%vs RHP 408 24.1% 8.3% 21.8% 32

2 Drake Baldwin 57 C +425 COOL 19 0.175 91.8 11.1% 24.6%vs RHP 402 16.1% 8.3% 14.3% 38

3 Michael Harris 52 C — COOL 37 0.198 90.6 10.1% 22.4%vs RHP 399 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 37

4 Austin Riley 51 C +500 WARM 42 0.143 91.4 10.7% 17.3%vs RHP 407 9.2% 8.3% 11.4% 24

5 Ronald Acuna 50 C — COOL 48 0.177 90.1 10.9% 22.5%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 30

6 Mike Yastrzemski 48 D +625 WARM 56 0.156 90.8 8.2% 18.3%vs RHP 389 8.3% 0.0% 14.9% 16

7 Ozzie Albies 47 D +700 COOL 64 0.165 86.9 6.2% 12.9%vs RHP 386 13.6% 0.0% 11.6% 40

8 Dominic Smith 44 D +950 COOL 89 0.124 87.7 7.2% 14.5%vs RHP 392 8.0% 0.0% 9.5% 8

9 Mauricio Dubon 39 D — COOL 119 0.126 86.9 6.2% 10.0%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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