TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.34×

MIL @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 12 mph out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+11 ↑

7:10p

+11 ↑

8:10p

+10 ↑

9:10p

+10 ↑

10:10p

+9 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +11

Best of game Carson Benge conv 21 · vs May ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 20 · vs Stock → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Dustin May RHP · STL

leak 43

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carson Benge +625 D ●●●○○

2 Bo Bichette +700 D ●●●○○

3 Francisco Lindor +425 D ●●○○○

FADE Robert Stock RHP · NYM

leak 13

0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.99 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers +400 C ●●●○○

2 Joey Ortiz — D ●●○○○

3 Garrett Mitchell +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 14.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Stock Edge +400 0.230 · 92.4 · 11.2% 18.2% 21.7% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· — Carson Benge COOL vs May Edge +625 0.150 · 89.3 · 7.1% 27.3% 14.2% F B O D 41

· — Bo Bichette vs May +700 0.129 · 89.6 · 6.7% 27.3% 11.2% F B O D 38

· — Francisco Lindor COOL vs May Edge +425 0.183 · 91.1 · 8.0% 18.2% 11.8% F B O D 44

· MIL Joey Ortiz HOT vs Stock — 0.128 · 88.6 · 6.2% 20.0% 7.5% F B O D 37

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Stock Edge +750 0.158 · 92.9 · 10.7% 16.7% 10.3% F B O D 46

· — Jared Young COOL vs May Edge +575 0.176 · 90.3 · 7.4% 12.5% 10.4% F B O D 40

· MIL David Hamilton vs Stock Edge +950 0.096 · 86.6 · 5.9% 16.7% 6.0% F B O D 33

· MIL Christian Yelich HOT vs Stock Edge +625 0.142 · 89.1 · 9.6% 12.5% 7.8% F B O D 42

· MIL William Contreras HOT vs Stock +525 0.123 · 90.2 · 8.5% 9.1% 5.9% F B O D 39

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Stock Edge +575 0.172 · 90.3 · 8.3% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 43

· — Francisco Alvarez COOL vs May +525 0.168 · 90.1 · 10.4% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 40

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Stock +425 0.183 · 91.8 · 10.8% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 48

· — Marcus Semien COOL vs May +750 0.136 · 86.6 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 35

· — Brett Baty HOT vs May Edge +700 0.115 · 90.0 · 8.0% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 35

· — A.J. Ewing COOL vs May Edge +850 0.119 · 89.2 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 79.5% ← leak OFF 10.4% BRK 10.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jake Bauers L Edge

15.0% 12.8% 12.5% 14.0% C 58 +400

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jackson Chourio R

13.3% 5.3% 13.8% 12.4% D 48 +425

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

15.4% 6.1% 11.4% 12.9% D 46 +750

Brice Turang L Edge

8.9% 1.6% 9.3% 7.6% D 43 +575

100

Christian Yelich L Edge

9.5% 13.8% 8.7% 9.8% D 42 +625

124

William Contreras R

8.5% 0.0% 9.2% 7.8% D 39 +525

145

Joey Ortiz R

4.2% 0.0% 5.6% 4.3% D 37 —

168

David Hamilton L Edge

3.8% 0.0% 6.4% 3.8% D 33 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (79.5% usage) carries Stock's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 67.5% ← leak BRK 25.8% OFF 6.8% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.2% 7.0% 6.1% 9.3% D 44 +425

104

Carson Benge L Edge

6.8% 8.7% 6.2% 7.2% D 41 +625

113

Francisco Alvarez R

16.0% 14.9% 16.7% 15.7% D 40 +525

114

Jared Young L Edge

6.8% 7.1% 12.9% 7.9% D 40 +575

130

Bo Bichette R

5.2% 10.2% 0.0% 6.2% D 38 +700

157

Marcus Semien R

9.3% 2.0% 6.5% 6.6% D 35 +750

158

Brett Baty L Edge

8.6% 13.8% 3.9% 8.9% D 35 +700

169

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.1% 12.1% 0.0% 7.7% D 32 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (67.5% usage) carries May's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Mitchell Ortiz Lindor Benge Bichette

Legend

attack side — vs May fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 12 mph out 72°F open

+11

↑

12 mph · out

74°F

7:10p · peak

+11

↑

12 mph · out

73°F

8:10p

+10

↑

11 mph · out

72°F

9:10p

+10

↑

11 mph · out

71°F

10:10p

↑

10 mph · out

71°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.34× 72°F, wind 12 mph S (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Robert Stock · RHP 0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.99 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 58 C +400 COOL 16 0.230 92.4 11.2% 30.8%vs RHP 401 19.8% 18.2% 21.7% 27

2 Jackson Chourio 48 D +425 COOL 58 0.183 91.8 10.8% 17.8%vs RHP 401 15.2% 0.0% 8.4% 36

3 Garrett Mitchell 46 D +750 COOL 70 0.158 92.9 10.7% 22.9%vs RHP 415 7.8% 16.7% 10.3% 18

4 Brice Turang 43 D +575 COOL 97 0.172 90.3 8.3% 24.2%vs RHP 407 10.3% 0.0% 10.2% 24

5 Christian Yelich 42 D +625 HOT 100 0.142 89.1 9.6% 18.4%vs RHP 400 8.0% 12.5% 7.8% 25

6 William Contreras 39 D +525 HOT 124 0.123 90.2 8.5% 15.6%vs RHP 415 9.2% 9.1% 5.9% 39

7 Joey Ortiz 37 D — HOT 145 0.128 88.6 6.2% 14.3%vs RHP 391 6.9% 20.0% 7.5% 31

8 David Hamilton 33 D +950 WARM 168 0.096 86.6 5.9% 5.7%vs RHP 386 4.8% 16.7% 6.0% 21

vs Dustin May · RHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 44 D +425 COOL 93 0.183 91.1 8.0% 16.3%vs RHP 397 13.3% 18.2% 11.8% 36

2 Carson Benge 41 D +625 COOL 104 0.150 89.3 7.1% 14.9%vs RHP 396 11.2% 27.3% 14.2% 35

3 Francisco Alvarez 40 D +525 COOL 113 0.168 90.1 10.4% 26.8%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 13

4 Jared Young 40 D +575 COOL 114 0.176 90.3 7.4% 18.6%vs RHP 400 7.4% 12.5% 10.4% 33

5 Bo Bichette 38 D +700 WARM 130 0.129 89.6 6.7% 12.0%vs RHP 385 10.2% 27.3% 11.2% 35

6 Marcus Semien 35 D +750 COOL 157 0.136 86.6 6.8% 16.9%vs RHP 391 11.2% 0.0% 7.4% 28

7 Brett Baty 35 D +700 HOT 158 0.115 90.0 8.0% 12.9%vs RHP 397 7.0% 0.0% 7.2% 12

8 A.J. Ewing 32 D +850 COOL 169 0.119 89.2 7.2% 11.4%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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