TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.11×

CIN @ SF

Oracle Park · 3:45p · 10 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 7 mph out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

12:45p

+5 ↑

1:45p

+5 ↑

2:45p

+6 ↑

3:45p

+6 ↑

4:45p

conditions build late — the 3:45p window peaks +6

Best of game Sal Stewart conv 18 · vs Roupp ⟷ Rafael Devers conv 26 · vs Lodolo → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Landen Roupp RHP · SF

leak 65

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Sal Stewart +750 D ●●●○○

2 Matt Mclain +950 D ●●●○○

3 Jj Bleday +575 D ●●○○○

FADE Nick Lodolo LHP · CIN

leak 63

1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.82 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rafael Devers +575 C ●●●●○

2 Drew Gilbert — D ●●○○○

3 Jung Hoo Lee — D ○○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: 10.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Lodolo +575 0.232 · 92.6 · 9.7% 33.3% 18.9% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Roupp +750 0.207 · 90.1 · 8.0% 20.0% 15.0% F B O D 45

· CIN Matt Mclain vs Roupp +950 0.160 · 88.0 · 7.3% 20.0% 14.0% F B O D 37

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Roupp Edge +575 0.220 · 88.8 · 7.2% 20.0% 11.7% F B O D 42

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Lodolo — 0.140 · 86.5 · 6.5% 20.0% 11.3% F B O D 37

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Roupp +750 0.163 · 91.1 · 7.9% 7.7% 14.2% F B O D 38

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs Roupp — 0.108 · 89.4 · 5.1% 11.1% 7.6% F B O D 29

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Roupp Edge +700 0.210 · 93.8 · 8.3% 6.7% 11.1% F B O D 44

· CIN Eugenio Suarez COOL vs Roupp +525 0.199 · 88.6 · 7.4% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 36

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Lodolo — 0.136 · 87.0 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.1% ← leak BRK 25.8% OFF 21.1% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Sal Stewart R

16.1% 8.9% 7.3% 12.4% D 45 +750

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

17.8% 11.1% 4.4% 13.3% D 44 +700

101

Jj Bleday L Edge

12.9% 6.7% 5.1% 9.9% D 42 +575

134

Tyler Stephenson R

15.8% 7.1% 5.0% 12.2% D 38 +750

147

Matt Mclain R

11.5% 10.3% 4.2% 10.4% D 37 +950

150

Eugenio Suarez R

12.8% 6.5% 5.0% 10.7% D 36 +525

194

Dane Myers R

4.3% 6.1% 5.6% 5.0% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.1% usage) carries Roupp's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.6% ← leak BRK 24.5% OFF 23.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L

12.4% 9.7% 7.6% 10.8% C 56 +575

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

148

Drew Gilbert L

5.8% 5.9% 0.0% 4.9% D 37 —

184

Jung Hoo Lee L

2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.6% usage) carries Lodolo's damage — FB is the leak. 0 of 3 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stewart Bleday Mclain Devers Gilbert

Legend

attack side — vs Roupp fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Rafael Devers +575 · 56

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 12:45p · roof open

Park 0.85× Wind 7 mph out 82°F open

↑

7 mph · out

78°F

12:45p

↑

8 mph · out

82°F

1:45p

↑

8 mph · out

84°F

2:45p

↑

9 mph · out

85°F

3:45p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

86°F

4:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.11× 82°F, wind 7 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Landen Roupp · RHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 45 D +750 · 82 0.207 90.1 8.0% 22.7%vs RHP 397 16.9% 20.0% 15.0% 48

2 Elly De La Cruz 44 D +700 COOL 95 0.210 93.8 8.3% 21.3%vs RHP 398 15.9% 6.7% 11.1% 38

3 Jj Bleday 42 D +575 COOL 101 0.220 88.8 7.2% 21.9%vs RHP 387 20.0% 20.0% 11.7% 40

4 Tyler Stephenson 38 D +750 · 134 0.163 91.1 7.9% 20.7%vs RHP 392 8.6% 7.7% 14.2% 26

5 Matt Mclain 37 D +950 WARM 147 0.160 88.0 7.3% 14.3%vs RHP 394 14.3% 20.0% 14.0% 34

6 Eugenio Suarez 36 D +525 COOL 150 0.199 88.6 7.4% 26.9%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 32

7 Dane Myers 29 D — COOL 194 0.108 89.4 5.1% 12.5%vs RHP 384 5.4% 11.1% 7.6% 35

vs Nick Lodolo · LHP 1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.82 · 3 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 56 C +575 · 22 0.232 92.6 9.7% 10.3%vs LHP 399 19.5% 33.3% 18.9% 35

2 Drew Gilbert 37 D — HOT 148 0.140 86.5 6.5% 9.7% 392 6.2% 20.0% 11.3% 23

3 Jung Hoo Lee 31 D — · 184 0.136 87.0 4.5% 8.7%vs LHP 382 5.8% 0.0% 6.4% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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