TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.43×

COL @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.19× Wind 8 mph slight_out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

6:45p

+10 ↑

7:45p

+10 ↑

8:45p

+11 ↑

9:45p

+11 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +12

Best of game Daylen Lile conv 14 · vs Gordon ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 31 · vs Waldron → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Tanner Gordon RHP · COL

leak 87

1.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · leakiest side of this game

1 Daylen Lile +425 C ●●○○○

2 Keibert Ruiz +525 C ●●○○○

3 Cj Abrams +305 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Matt Waldron RHP · SD

leak 46

1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman +280 B ●●●●●

2 Mickey Moniak +330 C+ ●●●●○

3 Willi Castro +500 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Waldron +280 0.290 · 90.6 · 10.5% 33.3% 27.9% F B O B 72

· — Mickey Moniak vs Waldron Edge +330 0.270 · 89.6 · 8.3% 18.2% 28.8% F B O C+ 66

· — Willi Castro vs Waldron Edge +500 0.163 · 87.9 · 7.5% 16.7% 16.0% F B O C 53

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Gordon Edge +425 0.164 · 88.5 · 9.0% 15.4% 12.4% F B O C 54

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Gordon Edge +525 0.161 · 88.2 · 6.8% 12.5% 11.5% F B O C 50

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Gordon Edge +305 0.250 · 89.5 · 9.9% 0.0% 22.7% F B O C+ 64

· — Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Waldron Edge +750 0.188 · 85.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 14.9% F B O C 50

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Gordon +370 0.145 · 90.6 · 9.9% 0.0% 9.8% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· — Ezequiel Tovar vs Waldron +625 0.129 · 87.4 · 6.7% 12.5% 10.9% F B O D 46

· — Tj Rumfield vs Waldron Edge +750 0.151 · 83.8 · 5.5% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 45

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Gordon +850 0.148 · 88.0 · 7.9% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 48

· — Troy Johnston vs Waldron Edge — 0.112 · 89.6 · 3.8% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 39

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Gordon Edge — 0.034 · 85.0 · 1.7% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.1% BRK 32.1% OFF 21.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Cj Abrams L Edge

10.5% 9.1% 11.8% 10.2% C+ 64 +305

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.4% 13.0% 3.1% 8.5% C 54 +425

Dylan Crews R

7.1% 18.6% 9.5% 9.6% C 53 +370

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.0% 4.4% 2.1% 4.8% C 50 +525

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Jacob Young R

8.7% 3.5% 2.9% 6.5% D 48 +850

202

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 28 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Gordon's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.4% ← leak BRK 14.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R

18.9% 15.7% 16.7% B 72 +280

Neutral · 3

Mickey Moniak L Edge

9.2% 20.0% 10.0% C+ 66 +330

Willi Castro S Edge

10.3% 6.8% 8.2% C 53 +500

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.2% 1.2% 4.9% C 50 +750

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Tovar R

6.6% 6.4% 6.6% D 46 +625

Tj Rumfield L Edge

5.4% 1.8% 4.3% D 45 +750

125

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.3% 2.3% 2.2% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.4% usage) carries Waldron's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lile Goodman Moniak Castro

Legend

attack side — vs Gordon fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Hunter Goodman +280 · 72

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.19× Wind 8 mph slight_out 80°F open

+12

↑

9 mph · slight_out

81°F

6:45p · peak

+10

↑

9 mph · slight_out

77°F

7:45p

+10

↑

9 mph · slight_out

75°F

8:45p

+11

↑

9 mph · slight_out

73°F

9:45p

+11

↑

8 mph · slight_out

71°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.43× 80°F, wind 8 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tanner Gordon · RHP 1.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 64 C+ +305 COOL 10 0.250 89.5 9.9% 29.9%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 22.7% 22

2 Daylen Lile 54 C +425 · 30 0.164 88.5 9.0% 12.1%vs RHP 402 11.1% 15.4% 12.4% 40

3 Dylan Crews 53 C +370 · 36 0.145 90.6 9.9% 11.9%vs RHP 407 14.9% 0.0% 9.8% 33

4 Keibert Ruiz 50 C +525 COOL 52 0.161 88.2 6.8% 8.8%vs RHP 378 9.5% 12.5% 11.5% 27

5 Jacob Young 48 D +850 COOL 61 0.148 88.0 7.9% 12.7%vs RHP 399 7.4% 0.0% 10.1% 31

6 Nasim Nunez 28 D — COOL 202 0.034 85.0 1.7% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 31

vs Matt Waldron · RHP 1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 72 B +280 COOL 1 0.290 90.6 10.5% 39.7%vs RHP 410 24.3% 33.3% 27.9% 5

2 Mickey Moniak 66 C+ +330 WARM 7 0.270 89.6 8.3% 23.1%vs RHP 415 17.8% 18.2% 28.8% 30

3 Willi Castro 53 C +500 WARM 35 0.163 87.9 7.5% 16.1%vs RHP 409 11.8% 16.7% 16.0% 33

4 Jake Mccarthy 50 C +750 COOL 51 0.188 85.0 5.8% 15.0%vs RHP 416 11.1% 0.0% 14.9% 39

5 Ezequiel Tovar 46 D +625 WARM 72 0.129 87.4 6.7% 14.5%vs RHP 409 8.0% 12.5% 10.9% 17

6 Tj Rumfield 45 D +750 · 81 0.151 83.8 5.5% 14.3%vs RHP 410 5.6% 0.0% 11.8% 29

7 Troy Johnston 39 D — WARM 125 0.112 89.6 3.8% 6.7%vs RHP 415 1.1% 0.0% 9.1% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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