TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.20×

CHC @ AZ

Chase Field · 3:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 2 mph cross 114°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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12:40p

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1:40p

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2:40p

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3:40p

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4:40p

conditions build late — the 4:40p window peaks +1

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 32 · vs Rodriguez ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 22 · vs Boyd → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · AZ

leak 19

0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +425 C+ ●●●●●

2 Ian Happ +625 C ●●●○○

3 Alex Bregman +700 D ●●●○○

FADE Matthew Boyd LHP · CHC

leak 13

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado +525 C ●●●○○

2 Gabriel Moreno +750 D ●●○○○

3 Tim Tawa +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 12.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 38.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Rodriguez +425 0.276 · 90.0 · 10.0% 38.5% 25.0% F B O C+ 61

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +625 0.202 · 89.4 · 9.5% 27.3% 17.8% F B O C 51

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Boyd Edge +525 0.200 · 85.0 · 8.0% 18.2% 25.4% F B O C 50

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Boyd +575 0.239 · 91.8 · 10.6% 8.3% 12.5% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Rodriguez Edge +700 0.162 · 88.3 · 6.4% 23.1% 14.1% F B O D 41

· CHC Seiya Suzuki COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +475 0.209 · 88.4 · 9.1% 15.4% 15.2% F B O D 49

· CHC Michael Busch vs Rodriguez +700 0.149 · 88.3 · 8.5% 16.7% 11.3% F B O D 42

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Boyd Edge +750 0.159 · 89.4 · 8.7% 16.7% 10.8% F B O D 44

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Boyd Edge +700 0.158 · 90.7 · 9.1% 16.7% 8.8% F B O D 44

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Boyd Edge +750 0.145 · 87.5 · 5.8% 10.0% 10.3% F B O D 37

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Rodriguez Edge +750 0.117 · 87.2 · 6.7% 12.5% 7.4% F B O D 34

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Boyd Edge +950 0.110 · 87.4 · 7.7% 9.1% 6.5% F B O D 36

· AZ Jose Fernandez vs Boyd Edge +950 0.098 · 87.7 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 32

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Boyd Edge — 0.124 · 87.5 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 33

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Rodriguez Edge +1000 0.098 · 85.9 · 3.0% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.9% ← leak OFF 26.4% BRK 12.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Crow-Armstrong L

11.0% 12.7% 14.6% 12.4% C+ 61 +425

Ian Happ S Edge

15.3% 2.5% 13.0% 11.3% C 51 +625

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Seiya Suzuki R Edge

11.4% 12.0% 8.8% 10.5% D 49 +475

Michael Busch L

11.8% 2.0% 5.0% 8.9% D 42 +700

105

Alex Bregman R Edge

4.0% 8.1% 7.4% 5.2% D 41 +700

163

Carson Kelly R Edge

6.4% 5.6% 4.0% 5.6% D 34 +750

208

Nico Hoerner R Edge

1.0% 2.0% 0.8% 1.1% D 25 +1000

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.9% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.4% ← leak BRK 27.9% OFF 25.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Corbin Carroll L

11.6% 14.4% 9.0% 11.9% C 54 +575

Nolan Arenado R Edge

9.7% 1.9% 5.6% 6.7% C 50 +525

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Gabriel Moreno R Edge

8.4% 7.7% 6.8% 8.0% D 44 +750

Tim Tawa R Edge

8.6% 9.5% 8.3% 8.8% D 44 +700

141

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.6% 2.8% 1.3% 3.5% D 37 +750

153

Ryan Waldschmidt R Edge

7.3% 6.7% 0.0% 6.2% D 36 +950

167

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.9% 1.4% 2.1% 3.0% D 33 —

172

Jose Fernandez R Edge

3.9% 5.7% 0.0% 4.2% D 32 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.4% usage) carries Boyd's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Happ Suzuki Busch Bregman Arenado Moreno

Legend

attack side — vs Rodriguez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong +425 · 61

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 12:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 2 mph cross 114°F retractable

↑

2 mph · cross

110°F

12:40p

↑

2 mph · in

114°F

1:40p

↑

2 mph · in

115°F

2:40p

↑

3 mph · cross

115°F

3:40p

↑

4 mph · cross

115°F

4:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 114°F, wind 2 mph NE (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eduardo Rodriguez · LHP 0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 61 C+ +425 · 13 0.276 90.0 10.0% 28.1%vs LHP 393 21.8% 38.5% 25.0% 42

2 Ian Happ 51 C +625 COOL 43 0.202 89.4 9.5% 13.8%vs LHP 403 18.5% 27.3% 17.8% 33

3 Seiya Suzuki 49 D +475 COOL 54 0.209 88.4 9.1% 30.4%vs LHP 406 16.4% 15.4% 15.2% 35

4 Michael Busch 42 D +700 · 99 0.149 88.3 8.5% 15.8%vs LHP 403 12.8% 16.7% 11.3% 28

5 Alex Bregman 41 D +700 WARM 105 0.162 88.3 6.4% 13.3%vs LHP 389 11.5% 23.1% 14.1% 43

6 Carson Kelly 34 D +750 WARM 163 0.117 87.2 6.7% 20.0%vs LHP 410 7.5% 12.5% 7.4% 23

7 Nico Hoerner 25 D +1000 WARM 208 0.098 85.9 3.0% 6.9%vs LHP 381 5.4% 0.0% 6.1% 45

vs Matthew Boyd · LHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 54 C +575 WARM 28 0.239 91.8 10.6% 16.7%vs LHP 402 13.3% 8.3% 12.5% 35

2 Nolan Arenado 50 C +525 COOL 44 0.200 85.0 8.0% 28.0%vs LHP 389 15.6% 18.2% 25.4% 27

3 Gabriel Moreno 44 D +750 WARM 87 0.159 89.4 8.7% 16.0%vs LHP 401 9.3% 16.7% 10.8% 39

4 Tim Tawa 44 D +700 WARM 92 0.158 90.7 9.1% 0.0%vs LHP 400 8.6% 16.7% 8.8% 36

5 Ildemaro Vargas 37 D +750 WARM 141 0.145 87.5 5.8% 21.4%vs LHP 396 5.1% 10.0% 10.3% 40

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 36 D +950 COOL 153 0.110 87.4 7.7% 0.0%vs LHP 419 4.8% 9.1% 6.5% 23

7 Geraldo Perdomo 33 D — COOL 167 0.124 87.5 5.3% 3.6%vs LHP 383 6.8% 0.0% 7.0% 43

8 Jose Fernandez 32 D +950 WARM 172 0.098 87.7 6.3% 8.1% 409 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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