TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ CWS

Neutral air · 1.04×

TEX @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Jake Burger conv 28 · vs Burke ⟷ Miguel Vargas conv 28 · vs Gore → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Sean Burke RHP · CWS

leak 63

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Burger +350 C ●●●●○

2 Corey Seager +305 C ●●○○○

3 Wyatt Langford +350 C ●●○○○

FADE MacKenzie Gore LHP · TEX

leak 17

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Miguel Vargas +320 C+ ●●●●○

2 Tristan Peters — D ●●●●○

3 Munetaka Murakami +330 C+ ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Gore Edge +320 0.250 · 90.8 · 11.4% 23.1% 32.8% F B O C+ 65

· TEX Jake Burger vs Burke +350 0.188 · 90.0 · 9.1% 33.3% 22.0% F B O C 54

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Gore +330 0.290 · 94.0 · 13.4% 23.1% 28.1% F B O C+ 69

· TEX Corey Seager vs Burke Edge +305 0.194 · 91.7 · 10.5% 16.7% 15.8% F B O C 53

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Burke +350 0.209 · 89.4 · 7.4% 15.4% 14.6% F B O C 50

· CWS Colson Montgomery vs Gore +370 0.215 · 88.9 · 10.4% 7.7% 14.8% F B O C 56

· TEX Joc Pederson vs Burke Edge +330 0.239 · 92.3 · 9.1% 0.0% 17.8% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Gore — 0.173 · 87.4 · 7.0% 41.7% 13.0% F B O D 48

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Burke +575 0.175 · 88.8 · 6.9% 7.7% 11.8% F B O D 44

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Gore Edge +700 0.141 · 89.1 · 6.0% 7.7% 8.6% F B O D 39

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Gore Edge +850 0.128 · 87.8 · 6.3% 7.1% 9.0% F B O D 38

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Burke Edge +390 0.156 · 92.2 · 8.8% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 44

· TEX Evan Carter vs Burke Edge +575 0.128 · 87.8 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 37

· TEX Nicky Lopez vs Burke Edge — 0.039 · 84.4 · — 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 20

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Gore — 0.120 · 87.4 · 6.9% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.4% ← leak BRK 37.2% OFF 2.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.0% 12.1% 3.3% 10.9% C 55 +330

Jake Burger R

9.9% 11.6% 11.4% 10.7% C 54 +350

Corey Seager L Edge

14.7% 12.7% 17.1% 14.6% C 53 +305

Wyatt Langford R

4.9% 10.1% 12.0% 7.2% C 50 +350

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Duran R

7.9% 6.1% 0.0% 6.3% D 44 +575

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

8.0% 16.3% 7.5% 10.3% D 44 +390

144

Evan Carter L Edge

7.5% 4.0% 0.0% 5.5% D 37 +575

210

Nicky Lopez L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 20 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.4% usage) carries Burke's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.9% ← leak BRK 29.0% OFF 12.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L

23.6% 16.9% 15.4% 20.2% C+ 69 +330

Miguel Vargas R Edge

16.6% 11.3% 13.5% 14.7% C+ 65 +320

Colson Montgomery L

12.5% 10.9% 13.6% 12.3% C 56 +370

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Tristan Peters L

7.5% 4.7% 0.0% 5.7% D 48 —

120

Braden Montgomery S Edge

6.0% 2.6% 2.2% 4.1% D 39 +700

131

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.3% 5.6% 3.7% 4.5% D 38 +850

146

Sam Antonacci L

7.0% 4.7% 0.0% 5.4% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.9% usage) carries Gore's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Burger Seager Langford Murakami Vargas Peters

Legend

attack side — vs Burke fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Miguel Vargas +320 · 65

Jake Burger +350 · 54

Munetaka Murakami +330 · 69

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.04× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.04× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Burke · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson 55 C +330 WARM 24 0.239 92.3 9.1% 29.3%vs RHP 396 21.1% 0.0% 17.8% 18

2 Jake Burger 54 C +350 WARM 29 0.188 90.0 9.1% 22.4%vs RHP 400 16.8% 33.3% 22.0% 25

3 Corey Seager 53 C +305 · 33 0.194 91.7 10.5% 21.7%vs RHP 394 16.4% 16.7% 15.8% 34

4 Wyatt Langford 50 C +350 COOL 49 0.209 89.4 7.4% 22.2%vs RHP 396 16.1% 15.4% 14.6% 40

5 Ezequiel Duran 44 D +575 · 85 0.175 88.8 6.9% 20.0%vs RHP 394 12.2% 7.7% 11.8% 34

6 Brandon Nimmo 44 D +390 COOL 90 0.156 92.2 8.8% 12.2%vs RHP 403 9.8% 0.0% 9.5% 40

7 Evan Carter 37 D +575 · 144 0.128 87.8 6.4% 12.1%vs RHP 374 7.1% 0.0% 8.0% 27

8 Nicky Lopez 20 D — · 210 0.039 84.4 — 4.8%vs RHP 397 1.9% 0.0% 7.0% 14

vs MacKenzie Gore · LHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 69 C+ +330 · 3 0.290 94.0 13.4% 28.6%vs LHP 404 19.5% 23.1% 28.1% 29

2 Miguel Vargas 65 C+ +320 · 8 0.250 90.8 11.4% 30.0%vs LHP 393 21.1% 23.1% 32.8% 38

3 Colson Montgomery 56 C +370 · 21 0.215 88.9 10.4% 30.0%vs LHP 399 21.1% 7.7% 14.8% 28

4 Tristan Peters 48 D — WARM 59 0.173 87.4 7.0% 0.0%vs LHP 379 11.7% 41.7% 13.0% 34

5 Braden Montgomery 39 D +700 WARM 120 0.141 89.1 6.0% 9.1%vs LHP 390 6.8% 7.7% 8.6% 38

6 Chase Meidroth 38 D +850 COOL 131 0.128 87.8 6.3% 16.7%vs LHP 379 8.0% 7.1% 9.0% 43

7 Sam Antonacci 37 D — COOL 146 0.120 87.4 6.9% 0.0%vs LHP 390 8.5% 0.0% 5.9% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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