TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ KC

Playable air · 1.05×

CLE @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 3:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 3 mph cross 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

2:10p

-2 ↑

3:10p

-3 ↑

4:10p

-3 ↑

5:10p

-3 ↑

6:10p

best window is early — 2:10p at -2

Best of game Travis Bazzana conv 19 · vs IV ⟷ Vinnie Pasquantino conv 25 · vs Messick → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Daniel Lynch IV LHP · KC

leak 81

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●○○

2 Angel Martinez — D ●●○○○

3 Patrick Bailey — D ●●○○○

FADE Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 63

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · stingy — thin edge

1 Vinnie Pasquantino — D ●●●●○

2 Carter Jensen — C ●●●○○

3 Michael Massey — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 24.3% · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ vs Messick — 0.225 · 91.3 · 7.8% 20.0% 24.3% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Messick — 0.166 · 90.0 · 6.8% 33.3% 16.2% F B O D 46

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs IV — 0.158 · 87.7 · 5.9% 25.0% 13.1% F B O D 46

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Messick — 0.158 · 89.3 · 5.7% 16.7% 12.4% F B O D 41

· CLE Angel Martinez vs IV Edge — 0.215 · 87.6 · 7.2% 0.0% 27.2% F B O D 48

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs IV Edge — 0.112 · 90.3 · 6.9% 12.5% 8.3% F B O D 41

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs IV Edge — 0.126 · 87.0 · 4.5% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 38

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Messick — 0.202 · 93.2 · 8.2% 0.0% 14.8% F B O D 49

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs IV — 0.063 · 83.8 · 1.7% 8.3% 5.6% F B O D 26

· KC Salvador Perez vs Messick Edge — 0.153 · 89.2 · 7.3% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 38

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.160 · 92.3 · 7.7% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 42

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs IV — 0.165 · 91.4 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 42

· CLE Jose Ramirez vs IV Edge — 0.135 · 88.5 · 5.4% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 37

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.110 · 88.0 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Daniel Lynch IV — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Parker Messick — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Martinez Bazzana Jensen Pasquantino Massey

Legend

attack side — vs IV fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Carter Jensen — · 55

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 2:10p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 3 mph cross 73°F open

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

69°F

2:10p · peak

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

70°F

3:10p

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

71°F

4:10p

-3

↑

7 mph · in

70°F

5:10p

-3

↑

6 mph · in

69°F

6:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.05× 73°F, wind 3 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Daniel Lynch IV · LHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 48 D — · 70 0.215 87.6 7.2% 23.1%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 27.2% 25

2 Travis Bazzana 46 D — WARM 91 0.158 87.7 5.9% 7.1%vs LHP 393 12.5% 25.0% 13.1% 31

3 Chase Delauter 42 D — COOL 125 0.165 91.4 6.5% 16.7%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 28

4 Patrick Bailey 41 D — · 141 0.112 90.3 6.9% 10.0%vs LHP 409 7.4% 12.5% 8.3% 14

5 Brayan Rocchio 38 D — COOL 163 0.126 87.0 4.5% 10.3%vs LHP 384 8.7% 9.1% 8.3% 29

6 Jose Ramirez 37 D — WARM 168 0.135 88.5 5.4% 14.7%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 38

7 Steven Kwan 26 D — COOL 214 0.063 83.8 1.7% 0.0%vs LHP 367 2.0% 8.3% 5.6% 37

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen ✶ 55 C — · 37 0.225 91.3 7.8% 14.8%vs LHP 399 17.8% 20.0% 24.3% 25

2 Jac Caglianone 49 D — WARM 67 0.202 93.2 8.2% 25.9%vs LHP 416 13.4% 0.0% 14.8% 19

3 Vinnie Pasquantino 46 D — HOT 88 0.166 90.0 6.8% 8.0%vs LHP 396 13.0% 33.3% 16.2% 30

4 Bobby Witt 42 D — COOL 127 0.160 92.3 7.7% 16.0%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 34

5 Michael Massey 41 D — COOL 136 0.158 89.3 5.7% 21.4%vs LHP 393 8.0% 16.7% 12.4% 36

6 Salvador Perez 38 D — WARM 158 0.153 89.2 7.3% 8.3%vs LHP 407 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 27

7 Isaac Collins 33 D — COOL 183 0.110 88.0 5.1% 7.1%vs LHP 394 4.7% 0.0% 7.7% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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