TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ CWS

Neutral air · 1.05×

COL @ CWS

Rate Field · 3:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Cole Carrigg conv 23 · vs Kay ⟷ Miguel Vargas conv 27 · vs Freeland → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Anthony Kay LHP · CWS

leak 89

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cole Carrigg — C ●●●●○

2 Hunter Goodman — C+ ●●●○○

3 Kyle Karros — C ●●●○○

FADE Kyle Freeland LHP · COL

leak 24

1.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.91 · stingy — thin edge

1 Miguel Vargas — C+ ●●●●○

2 Munetaka Murakami — B ●●●●○

3 Randal Grichuk — C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 29.3% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Freeland Edge — 0.225 · 90.1 · 11.9% 23.1% 31.5% F B O C+ 67

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Freeland — 0.274 · 93.9 · 14.8% 25.0% 29.3% F B O B 74

· COL Cole Carrigg HOT vs Kay Edge — 0.191 · 87.9 · 6.8% 25.0% 21.1% F B O C 51

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.276 · 89.7 · 10.8% 20.0% 21.2% F B O C+ 67

· COL Kyle Karros vs Kay Edge — 0.163 · 89.6 · 8.3% 20.0% 15.8% F B O C 51

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Freeland Edge — 0.275 · 91.5 · 10.8% 14.3% 19.7% F B O C+ 62

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Kay — 0.245 · 89.7 · 8.9% 10.0% 14.8% F B O C 58

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Freeland — 0.208 · 88.6 · 11.4% 0.0% 14.6% F B O C 59

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Freeland — 0.167 · 89.3 · 9.4% 0.0% 9.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Freeland Edge — 0.138 · 87.3 · 7.0% 18.2% 13.8% F B O D 45

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Kay Edge — 0.128 · 87.2 · 7.4% 20.0% 8.7% F B O D 44

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Kay — 0.187 · 85.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 46

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Freeland — 0.174 · 87.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 47

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Kay — 0.154 · 84.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 43

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Freeland Edge — 0.126 · 88.9 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 41

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Kay — 0.117 · 89.7 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 36

· CWS Sam Antonacci vs Freeland — 0.118 · 87.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Anthony Kay — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Kyle Freeland — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Carrigg Karros Tovar Murakami Vargas Grichuk Meidroth

Legend

attack side — vs Kay fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Miguel Vargas — · 67

Munetaka Murakami — · 74

Cole Carrigg — · 51

Hunter Goodman — · 67

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 3:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.05× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Anthony Kay · LHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 67 C+ — COOL 9 0.276 89.7 10.8% 34.4%vs LHP 408 23.7% 20.0% 21.2% 29

2 Mickey Moniak 58 C — WARM 28 0.245 89.7 8.9% 16.7%vs LHP 417 16.4% 10.0% 14.8% 21

3 Cole Carrigg 51 C — HOT 57 0.191 87.9 6.8% 10.3%vs LHP 406 10.9% 25.0% 21.1% 35

4 Kyle Karros 51 C — WARM 60 0.163 89.6 8.3% 14.3%vs LHP 416 11.8% 20.0% 15.8% 29

5 Jake Mccarthy 46 D — COOL 89 0.187 85.2 6.7% 17.4%vs LHP 415 9.5% 0.0% 11.4% 38

6 Ezequiel Tovar 44 D — WARM 112 0.128 87.2 7.4% 7.3%vs LHP 403 8.9% 20.0% 8.7% 19

7 Tj Rumfield 43 D — · 115 0.154 84.3 6.4% 11.4%vs LHP 409 9.5% 0.0% 8.6% 37

8 Troy Johnston 36 D — COOL 177 0.117 89.7 4.2% 8.0%vs LHP 411 1.9% 0.0% 7.0% 15

vs Kyle Freeland · LHP 1.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.91 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 74 B — WARM 2 0.274 93.9 14.8% 30.4%vs LHP 401 19.2% 25.0% 29.3% 19

2 Miguel Vargas 67 C+ — COOL 8 0.225 90.1 11.9% 26.7%vs LHP 393 19.7% 23.1% 31.5% 36

3 Randal Grichuk 62 C+ — · 16 0.275 91.5 10.8% 23.8%vs LHP 389 13.6% 14.3% 19.7% 30

4 Colson Montgomery 59 C — COOL 25 0.208 88.6 11.4% 29.4%vs LHP 397 20.1% 0.0% 14.6% 17

5 Andrew Benintendi 50 C — COOL 63 0.167 89.3 9.4% 11.5% 388 11.2% 0.0% 9.4% 15

6 Tristan Peters 47 D — COOL 85 0.174 87.5 7.6% 9.1%vs LHP 377 10.2% 0.0% 9.5% 20

7 Chase Meidroth 45 D — COOL 101 0.138 87.3 7.0% 25.0%vs LHP 382 8.6% 18.2% 13.8% 33

8 Braden Montgomery 41 D — · 138 0.126 88.9 6.9% 6.7%vs LHP 395 6.0% 0.0% 8.3% 26

9 Sam Antonacci 41 D — WARM 140 0.118 87.5 7.3% 0.0%vs LHP 390 6.7% 0.0% 6.0% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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