TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ BOS

Playable air · 1.06×

CHC @ BOS

Tropicana Field · 3:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Willson Contreras conv 28 · vs Proxy ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 26 · vs Proxy → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK CHC Bullpen Proxy

leak 71

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willson Contreras — C+ ●●●●○

2 Caleb Durbin — D ●○○○○

3 Nick Sogard — D ●○○○○

FADE BOS Bullpen Proxy · BOS

leak 33

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — B ●●●●○

2 Seiya Suzuki — C ●●○○○

3 Dansby Swanson — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 27.1% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Willson Contreras vs Proxy — 0.242 · 89.8 · 13.3% 25.0% 31.6% F B O C+ 68

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Proxy — 0.292 · 90.6 · 13.3% 25.0% 27.1% F B O B 71

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Proxy — 0.203 · 88.6 · 10.7% 16.7% 15.7% F B O C 55

· CHC Ian Happ vs Proxy — 0.195 · 89.3 · 11.2% 10.0% 12.1% F B O C 54

· — Wilyer Abreu vs Proxy — 0.198 · 89.8 · 12.6% 0.0% 13.5% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Proxy — 0.185 · 89.4 · 7.3% 16.7% 15.1% F B O D 48

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Proxy — 0.188 · 88.1 · 6.1% 12.5% 10.9% F B O D 46

· — Caleb Durbin COOL vs Proxy — 0.130 · 83.1 · 2.8% 9.1% 8.7% F B O D 36

· — Nick Sogard vs Proxy — 0.130 · 86.6 · 4.8% 9.1% 8.4% F B O D 41

· CHC Michael Busch vs Proxy — 0.152 · 88.4 · 9.2% 8.3% 8.7% F B O D 46

· — Ceddanne Rafaela HOT vs Proxy — 0.160 · 86.4 · 5.4% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 44

· — Jarren Duran COOL vs Proxy — 0.153 · 89.6 · 9.1% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 49

· — Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Proxy — 0.139 · 87.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 42

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Proxy — 0.118 · 86.7 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 35

· CHC Nico Hoerner COOL vs Proxy — 0.088 · 86.0 · 1.4% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for BOS Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for CHC Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Swanson Contreras

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Willson Contreras — · 68

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 71

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 3:05p · roof unknown

Park 1.06× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.06× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs BOS Bullpen Proxy 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 71 B — · 6 0.292 90.6 13.3% 22.4% 397 23.0% 25.0% 27.1% 39

2 Seiya Suzuki 55 C — · 56 0.203 88.6 10.7% 16.9% 408 16.1% 16.7% 15.7% 32

3 Ian Happ 54 C — · 61 0.195 89.3 11.2% 17.8% 401 16.6% 10.0% 12.1% 28

4 Dansby Swanson 48 D — COOL 104 0.185 89.4 7.3% 16.1% 404 12.4% 16.7% 15.1% 15

5 Alex Bregman 46 D — WARM 121 0.188 88.1 6.1% 13.1% 389 13.0% 12.5% 10.9% 25

6 Michael Busch 46 D — · 122 0.152 88.4 9.2% 11.7% 404 13.1% 8.3% 8.7% 26

7 Carson Kelly 35 D — COOL 195 0.118 86.7 5.2% 10.1% 403 7.9% 0.0% 7.3% 23

8 Nico Hoerner 26 D — COOL 219 0.088 86.0 1.4% 4.9% 383 5.1% 0.0% 6.7% 44

vs CHC Bullpen Proxy 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 68 C+ — WARM 13 0.242 89.8 13.3% 21.6% 405 19.4% 25.0% 31.6% 9

2 Wilyer Abreu 58 C — · 43 0.198 89.8 12.6% 11.7% 406 14.8% 0.0% 13.5% 28

3 Jarren Duran 49 D — COOL 97 0.153 89.6 9.1% 15.4% 401 13.2% 0.0% 10.9% 19

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 44 D — HOT 143 0.160 86.4 5.4% 12.0% 382 11.7% 0.0% 13.7% 3

5 Andruw Monasterio 42 D — COOL 155 0.139 87.5 6.5% 5.7% 390 9.4% 0.0% 8.6% 10

6 Nick Sogard 41 D — · 165 0.130 86.6 4.8% 8.1% 381 10.7% 9.1% 8.4% 34

7 Caleb Durbin 36 D — COOL 189 0.130 83.1 2.8% 10.0% 376 8.0% 9.1% 8.7% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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