TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.27×

NYM @ WSH

Nationals Park · 1:05p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.15× Wind 14 mph cross 63°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

1:05p

-1 ↑

2:05p

-1 ↑

3:05p

-1 ↑

4:05p

-1 ↑

5:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · -1 FIT

Best of game Cj Abrams conv 18 · vs Manaea ⟷ Carson Benge conv 21 · vs Proxy → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Sean Manaea LHP · NYM

leak 91

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cj Abrams — C+ ●●●○○

2 Dylan Crews — C ●●●○○

3 Daylen Lile — C ●●○○○

FADE WSH Bullpen Proxy · WSH

leak 65

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Carson Benge — C ●●●○○

2 Juan Soto — B ●●●○○

3 Bo Bichette — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: Match 21.0% · 14D pace 15.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Carson Benge vs Proxy — 0.149 · 88.8 · 7.4% 23.1% 18.3% F B O C 53

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ vs Proxy — 0.246 · 92.5 · 14.0% 15.4% 21.0% F B O B 72

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Manaea — 0.235 · 89.6 · 10.5% 0.0% 35.2% F B O C+ 66

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Manaea Edge — 0.151 · 90.1 · 10.1% 20.0% 15.1% F B O C 55

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Manaea — 0.184 · 88.7 · 10.2% 11.1% 16.0% F B O C 57

· WSH James Wood COOL vs Manaea — 0.240 · 95.3 · 14.2% 0.0% 24.5% F B O B 71

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Proxy — 0.196 · 91.6 · 8.8% 0.0% 14.8% F B O C 57

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Proxy — 0.168 · 90.8 · 15.6% 0.0% 13.5% F B O C 58

· NYM Brett Baty vs Proxy — 0.139 · 90.3 · 10.2% 0.0% 9.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Proxy — 0.132 · 89.6 · 6.5% 15.4% 9.8% F B O D 48

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Proxy — 0.124 · 86.7 · 5.9% 10.0% 9.1% F B O D 45

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Proxy — 0.118 · 89.4 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 42

· WSH Jacob Young vs Manaea Edge — 0.139 · 87.7 · 7.9% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 46

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Manaea Edge — 0.033 · 85.0 · 3.1% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for WSH Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Sean Manaea — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Benge Abrams Lile Crews

Legend

attack side — vs Manaea fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Carson Benge — · 53

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 1.15× Wind 14 mph cross 63°F open

-1

↑

13 mph · cross

63°F

1:05p · peak

-1

↑

13 mph · cross

63°F

2:05p

-1

↑

13 mph · cross

63°F

3:05p

-1

↑

13 mph · cross

63°F

4:05p

-1

↑

13 mph · cross

62°F

5:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.27× 63°F, wind 14 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs WSH Bullpen Proxy 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 72 B — · 5 0.246 92.5 14.0% 19.9% 403 20.5% 15.4% 21.0% 38

2 Francisco Alvarez 58 C — WARM 42 0.168 90.8 15.6% 20.0% 401 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 25

3 Francisco Lindor 57 C — · 50 0.196 91.6 8.8% 15.0% 390 15.1% 0.0% 14.8% 37

4 Carson Benge 53 C — WARM 64 0.149 88.8 7.4% 14.5% 393 11.7% 23.1% 18.3% 37

5 Brett Baty 51 C — · 78 0.139 90.3 10.2% 11.0% 402 6.7% 0.0% 9.9% 22

6 Bo Bichette 48 D — · 105 0.132 89.6 6.5% 13.3% 392 10.9% 15.4% 9.8% 40

7 Marcus Semien 45 D — COOL 132 0.124 86.7 5.9% 9.4% 391 9.8% 10.0% 9.1% 35

8 A.J. Ewing 42 D — COOL 154 0.118 89.4 7.0% 11.1% 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 30

vs Sean Manaea · LHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 71 B — COOL 3 0.240 95.3 14.2% 40.9%vs LHP 413 21.7% 0.0% 24.5% 24

2 Cj Abrams 66 C+ — WARM 10 0.235 89.6 10.5% 25.8%vs LHP 397 30.8% 0.0% 35.2% 28

3 Daylen Lile 57 C — WARM 32 0.184 88.7 10.2% 3.3%vs LHP 401 11.4% 11.1% 16.0% 30

4 Dylan Crews 55 C — COOL 41 0.151 90.1 10.1% 19.4%vs LHP 404 14.1% 20.0% 15.1% 31

5 Jacob Young 46 D — WARM 96 0.139 87.7 7.9% 8.1%vs LHP 399 6.1% 0.0% 9.1% 22

6 Nasim Nunez 29 D — COOL 206 0.033 85.0 3.1% 4.8%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.