TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.25×

LAD @ SF

Oracle Park · 3:05p · 10 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 10 mph out 67°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

12:05p

+5 ↑

1:05p

+7 ↑

2:05p

+7 ↑

3:05p

+8 ↑

4:05p

conditions build late — the 4:05p window peaks +8

Best of game Andy Pages conv 21 · vs Seymour ⟷ Drew Gilbert conv 15 · vs Proxy → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Carson Seymour RHP

leak 96

1.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Andy Pages — D ●●●○○

2 Kyle Tucker — D ●●●○○

3 Will Smith — D ●●●○○

FADE LAD Bullpen Proxy · LAD

leak 50

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Drew Gilbert — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: Match 21.6% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Max Muncy COOL vs Seymour Edge — 0.238 · 89.9 · 10.6% 8.3% 17.2% F B O C 57

· — Shohei Ohtani ✶ HOT vs Seymour Edge — 0.241 · 93.4 · 12.1% 0.0% 21.6% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· — Andy Pages COOL vs Seymour — 0.190 · 88.8 · 8.3% 20.0% 21.1% F B O D 49

· — Kyle Tucker COOL vs Seymour Edge — 0.153 · 88.6 · 7.6% 25.0% 15.6% F B O D 44

· — Will Smith COOL vs Seymour — 0.168 · 89.1 · 10.5% 20.0% 17.4% F B O D 48

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Proxy — 0.156 · 86.8 · 5.9% 16.7% 14.0% F B O D 36

· — Mookie Betts vs Seymour — 0.193 · 90.2 · 8.2% 16.7% 12.3% F B O D 48

· — Tommy Edman COOL vs Seymour Edge — 0.138 · 87.3 · 6.9% 16.7% 11.2% F B O D 40

· — Teoscar Hernandez vs Seymour — 0.159 · 90.3 · 9.6% 0.0% 16.6% F B O D 42

· — Freddie Freeman vs Seymour Edge — 0.142 · 89.5 · 8.5% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for LAD Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Carson Seymour — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Gilbert Ohtani Pages Smith Betts Tucker Edman

Legend

attack side — vs Seymour fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Andy Pages — · 49

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 12:05p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 10 mph out 67°F open

↑

10 mph · out

62°F

12:05p

↑

11 mph · out

63°F

1:05p

↑

12 mph · out

65°F

2:05p

↑

12 mph · out

65°F

3:05p

↑

12 mph · out

66°F

4:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.25× 67°F, wind 10 mph SW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs LAD Bullpen Proxy 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 1 batter

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Drew Gilbert 36 D — HOT 190 0.156 86.8 5.9% 13.1% 392 7.9% 16.7% 14.0% 16

vs Carson Seymour · RHP 1.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.23 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 59 C — HOT 27 0.241 93.4 12.1% 25.0%vs RHP 407 17.4% 0.0% 21.6% 7

2 Max Muncy 57 C — COOL 31 0.238 89.9 10.6% 25.7%vs RHP 410 21.5% 8.3% 17.2% 31

3 Andy Pages 49 D — COOL 68 0.190 88.8 8.3% 19.4%vs RHP 390 14.5% 20.0% 21.1% 9

4 Will Smith 48 D — COOL 76 0.168 89.1 10.5% 14.0%vs RHP 400 11.1% 20.0% 17.4% 25

5 Mookie Betts 48 D — · 77 0.193 90.2 8.2% 17.1%vs RHP 389 13.7% 16.7% 12.3% 41

6 Kyle Tucker 44 D — COOL 113 0.153 88.6 7.6% 11.5%vs RHP 392 10.0% 25.0% 15.6% 36

7 Teoscar Hernandez 42 D — · 124 0.159 90.3 9.6% 14.8%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 28

8 Freddie Freeman 41 D — · 142 0.142 89.5 8.5% 13.4%vs RHP 399 9.0% 0.0% 8.8% 35

9 Tommy Edman 40 D — COOL 150 0.138 87.3 6.9% 8.7%vs RHP 396 10.2% 16.7% 11.2% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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