0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
26.3%
Overall HR/FB
6.12
FIP
4.89
xFIP
#1
Leakiest SP today (of 30, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
95
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 95th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
Overall
Score
Neutral · 2
Long shots · 7 — below the fade line
5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB26.3% 95
HR/9—
FIP6.12 95
xFIP4.89
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-27
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Carson Seymour.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Oracle Park
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.892
Wind
10 mph from SW
Temp
67°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
12:05p
10
67°
+4
1:05p
11
68°
+6
2:05p
12
69°
+8
3:05p
12
67°
+8
4:05p
12
66°
+8
+7
Slight green alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 11 mph from WSW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
339ft
deep
CF
399ft
avg
RF
309ft
short
vs LHH → RF
359ft
0 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF
352ft
0 HRs allowed
Shortest: RF 309 ft
24-ft RF wall (the Arcade) plays RF bigger than 309
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for Carson Seymour.
Common questions about Carson Seymour
Is Carson Seymour likely to give up a home run tonight?
Carson Seymour pitches tonight (LAD @ SF at Oracle Park). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 0 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
Which batters have homered off Carson Seymour?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Carson Seymour include Ivan Herrera (1), Ryan Mountcastle (1).
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.