TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ MIL

Suppressed air · 0.95×

STL @ MIL

American Family Field · 3:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 4 mph cross 69°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-4 ↑

2:10p

-3 ↑

3:10p

-3 ↑

4:10p

-3 ↑

5:10p

-3 ↑

6:10p

the 3:10p window peaks -3

Best of game Brice Turang conv 15 · vs Pallante ⟷ Alec Burleson conv 25 · vs Misiorowski → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Andre Pallante RHP · STL

leak 66

0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brice Turang — D ●●○○○

2 Jake Bauers — C ●●○○○

3 Jackson Chourio — D ●●○○○

FADE Jacob Misiorowski RHP · MIL

leak 44

0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Alec Burleson — D ●●●●○

2 Jordan Walker — D ●●○○○

3 Ivan Herrera — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 17.9% · 14D pace 11.1% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.221 · 92.1 · 8.3% 11.1% 17.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 16 long shots

· STL Alec Burleson vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.189 · 92.0 · 6.8% 30.0% 19.8% F B O D 45

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.177 · 90.2 · 6.1% 18.2% 11.7% F B O D 42

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Pallante — 0.198 · 91.6 · 7.8% 9.1% 18.5% F B O D 48

· STL Jordan Walker HOT vs Misiorowski — 0.200 · 92.7 · 7.5% 8.3% 14.4% F B O D 45

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.144 · 88.9 · 6.8% 12.5% 9.8% F B O D 38

· MIL William Contreras COOL vs Pallante — 0.147 · 90.3 · 6.5% 10.0% 8.3% F B O D 39

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Pallante — 0.132 · 89.2 · 4.5% 10.0% 7.6% F B O D 33

· STL Ivan Herrera HOT vs Misiorowski — 0.142 · 89.4 · 5.0% 0.0% 16.4% F B O D 30

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.154 · 93.2 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 40

· STL Masyn Winn COOL vs Misiorowski — 0.085 · 88.3 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 24

· STL Nolan Gorman COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.126 · 89.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.124 · 89.8 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 31

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Misiorowski — 0.108 · 86.1 · 3.0% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 26

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Misiorowski Edge — 0.119 · 85.6 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 28

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.089 · 85.6 · 3.4% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 26

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Pallante Edge — 0.090 · 86.8 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jacob Misiorowski — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Andre Pallante — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Burleson Bauers Chourio Turang

Legend

attack side — vs Pallante fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Alec Burleson — · 45

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 2:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 4 mph cross 69°F retractable

-4

↑

4 mph · cross

63°F

2:10p

-3

↑

3 mph · cross

64°F

3:10p · peak

-3

↑

3 mph · cross

64°F

4:10p

-3

↑

3 mph · cross

62°F

5:10p

-3

↑

2 mph · cross

60°F

6:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 69°F, wind 4 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Jacob Misiorowski · RHP 0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Alec Burleson 45 D — WARM 99 0.189 92.0 6.8% 22.5%vs RHP 405 15.1% 30.0% 19.8% 26

2 Jordan Walker 45 D — HOT 100 0.200 92.7 7.5% 24.7%vs RHP 406 16.4% 8.3% 14.4% 21

3 Nolan Gorman 33 D — COOL 185 0.126 89.5 6.5% 14.5%vs RHP 407 9.0% 0.0% 7.4% 9

4 Jj Wetherholt 31 D — COOL 197 0.124 89.8 5.6% 15.1%vs RHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 7.4% 21

5 Ivan Herrera 30 D — HOT 203 0.142 89.4 5.0% 20.3%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 16.4% 24

6 Nathan Church 28 D — COOL 207 0.119 85.6 4.7% 12.3%vs RHP 386 6.8% 0.0% 7.1% 32

7 José Fermín 26 D — COOL 215 0.108 86.1 3.0% 6.1%vs RHP 390 5.1% 0.0% 7.3% 16

8 Masyn Winn 24 D — COOL 217 0.085 88.3 3.7% 7.4%vs RHP 385 3.8% 0.0% 7.5% 18

vs Andre Pallante · RHP 0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 51 C — COOL 59 0.221 92.1 8.3% 27.7%vs RHP 401 19.0% 11.1% 17.9% 17

2 Jackson Chourio 48 D — · 72 0.198 91.6 7.8% 18.6%vs RHP 400 16.8% 9.1% 18.5% 25

3 Brice Turang 42 D — COOL 131 0.177 90.2 6.1% 25.0%vs RHP 406 11.8% 18.2% 11.7% 24

4 Garrett Mitchell 40 D — COOL 147 0.154 93.2 7.6% 26.3%vs RHP 417 7.9% 0.0% 10.4% 20

5 William Contreras 39 D — COOL 153 0.147 90.3 6.5% 16.5%vs RHP 407 11.8% 10.0% 8.3% 30

6 Christian Yelich 38 D — COOL 161 0.144 88.9 6.8% 21.7%vs RHP 395 9.3% 12.5% 9.8% 19

7 Joey Ortiz 33 D — WARM 184 0.132 89.2 4.5% 18.4%vs RHP 392 7.4% 10.0% 7.6% 24

8 David Hamilton 27 D — COOL 210 0.090 86.8 3.9% 5.4%vs RHP 386 3.9% 0.0% 6.6% 11

9 Sal Frelick 26 D — COOL 213 0.089 85.6 3.4% 5.8%vs RHP 396 3.2% 0.0% 6.7% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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