TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ NYY

Suppressed air · 0.77×

BAL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 1:05p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 13 mph in 62°F Roof open

Hourly window

-9 ↑

1:05p

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2:05p

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3:05p

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4:05p

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5:05p

conditions build late — the 5:05p window peaks -7

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 48 · vs Rodríguez ⟷ Austin Wells conv 30 · vs Baz → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Elmer Rodríguez RHP · NYY

leak 44

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso — B ●●●●●

2 Gunnar Henderson — C ●●●○○

3 Dylan Beavers — D ●●○○○

FADE Shane Baz RHP · BAL

leak 34

0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.49 · stingy — thin edge

1 Austin Wells — D ●●●●●

2 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●●○

3 Spencer Jones — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 33.6% · 14D pace 61.5% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Rodríguez — 0.254 · 93.9 · 11.2% 61.5% 33.6% F B O B 75

· NYY Ben Rice vs Baz Edge — 0.269 · 91.9 · 9.9% 23.1% 31.8% F B O C+ 67

· NYY Spencer Jones vs Baz Edge — 0.183 · 94.1 · 10.4% 25.0% 17.7% F B O C 55

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Rodríguez Edge — 0.178 · 89.2 · 7.9% 15.4% 17.9% F B O C 53

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Rodríguez — 0.233 · 91.3 · 10.5% 7.7% 15.2% F B O C+ 61

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Baz — 0.200 · 86.8 · 8.2% 0.0% 12.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· NYY Austin Wells vs Baz Edge — 0.145 · 89.3 · 7.3% 44.4% 16.1% F B O D 49

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Baz Edge — 0.165 · 89.2 · 6.7% 27.3% 11.1% F B O D 48

· BAL Dylan Beavers HOT vs Rodríguez Edge — 0.144 · 87.8 · 8.3% 14.3% 14.2% F B O D 48

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Baz Edge — 0.167 · 90.4 · 7.5% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 46

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Baz Edge — 0.143 · 90.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 44

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Rodríguez Edge — 0.143 · 87.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 48

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Baz — 0.134 · 83.8 · 5.4% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 36

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Rodríguez Edge — 0.126 · 88.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Elmer Rodríguez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Shane Baz — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Henderson Beavers Rice Jones Wells Bellinger

Legend

attack side — vs Rodríguez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Alonso — · 75

Ben Rice — · 67

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 13 mph in 62°F open

-9

↑

13 mph · in

61°F

1:05p

-9

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13 mph · in

61°F

2:05p

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12 mph · in

62°F

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-8

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11 mph · in

62°F

4:05p

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10 mph · in

62°F

5:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.77× 62°F, wind 13 mph NE (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Elmer Rodríguez · RHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 75 B — WARM 1 0.254 93.9 11.2% 35.6%vs RHP 402 24.8% 61.5% 33.6% 32

2 Coby Mayo 61 C+ — · 17 0.233 91.3 10.5% 15.4%vs RHP 411 17.3% 7.7% 15.2% 31

3 Gunnar Henderson 53 C — WARM 51 0.178 89.2 7.9% 17.4%vs RHP 392 13.8% 15.4% 17.9% 26

4 Dylan Beavers 48 D — HOT 73 0.144 87.8 8.3% 13.0%vs RHP 387 7.8% 14.3% 14.2% 25

5 Colton Cowser 48 D — COOL 75 0.143 87.9 8.8% 20.0%vs RHP 412 12.9% 0.0% 9.5% 20

6 Leody Taveras 40 D — COOL 148 0.126 88.0 5.8% 11.5%vs RHP 403 4.3% 0.0% 7.8% 21

vs Shane Baz · RHP 0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.49 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 67 C+ — · 7 0.269 91.9 9.9% 31.2%vs RHP 392 23.7% 23.1% 31.8% 33

2 Spencer Jones 55 C — · 39 0.183 94.1 10.4% 15.7%vs RHP 403 13.1% 25.0% 17.7% 27

3 Paul Goldschmidt 50 C — COOL 62 0.200 86.8 8.2% 17.1%vs RHP 390 15.1% 0.0% 12.4% 15

4 Austin Wells 49 D — WARM 66 0.145 89.3 7.3% 17.0%vs RHP 382 10.3% 44.4% 16.1% 16

5 Cody Bellinger 48 D — · 74 0.165 89.2 6.7% 14.1%vs RHP 377 12.5% 27.3% 11.1% 38

6 Jazz Chisholm 46 D — COOL 90 0.167 90.4 7.5% 21.5%vs RHP 384 11.1% 0.0% 14.5% 6

7 Ryan Mcmahon 44 D — COOL 106 0.143 90.5 7.8% 18.3%vs RHP 382 7.7% 0.0% 12.1% 16

8 Jose Caballero 36 D — COOL 174 0.134 83.8 5.4% 22.7%vs RHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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