TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ SD

Playable air · 1.08×

AZ @ SD

Petco Park · 3:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 6 mph cross 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

12:10p

-3 ↑

1:10p

-3 ↑

2:10p

-3 ↑

3:10p

-3 ↑

4:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -3 FIT

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 36 · vs Vásquez ⟷ Manny Machado conv 24 · vs Soroka → edge: Nolan Arenado

ATTACK Randy Vásquez RHP · SD

leak 58

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado — C ●●●●●

2 Gabriel Moreno — D ●●●●○

3 Corbin Carroll — C ●●○○○

FADE Michael Soroka RHP · AZ

leak 24

0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.54 · stingy — thin edge

1 Manny Machado — D ●●●●○

2 Xander Bogaerts — D ●●○○○

3 Ty France — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Nolan Arenado: Match 22.2% · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Nolan Arenado ✶ vs Vásquez — 0.220 · 85.1 · 8.2% 50.0% 22.2% F B O C 54

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Vásquez Edge — 0.230 · 91.8 · 10.8% 16.7% 15.4% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Vásquez — 0.176 · 89.3 · 8.6% 33.3% 16.4% F B O D 47

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Soroka — 0.187 · 90.1 · 8.8% 30.8% 17.9% F B O D 47

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Soroka — 0.108 · 89.6 · 6.7% 16.7% 6.8% F B O D 31

· SD Ty France COOL vs Soroka — 0.209 · 91.7 · 8.6% 8.3% 12.2% F B O D 44

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Soroka Edge — 0.187 · 91.6 · 10.0% 7.7% 10.3% F B O D 45

· AZ Tim Tawa COOL vs Vásquez — 0.157 · 90.7 · 10.2% 8.3% 9.4% F B O D 43

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Soroka — 0.182 · 93.0 · 10.1% 0.0% 16.4% F B O D 40

· SD Jake Cronenworth vs Soroka Edge — 0.094 · 87.1 · 5.4% 7.7% 8.0% F B O D 27

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Soroka — 0.176 · 87.4 · 7.4% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 37

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Vásquez Edge — 0.184 · 90.2 · 9.4% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 45

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Vásquez — 0.112 · 86.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 33

· AZ Jose Fernandez COOL vs Vásquez — 0.088 · 87.8 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 29

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Vásquez Edge — 0.117 · 87.7 · 5.5% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 31

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Vásquez Edge — 0.124 · 87.4 · 5.5% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 31

· SD Freddy Fermin COOL vs Soroka — 0.110 · 87.5 · 5.6% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Randy Vásquez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Michael Soroka — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Arenado Carroll Moreno Machado

Legend

attack side — vs Vásquez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Nolan Arenado — · 54

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 12:10p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 6 mph cross 85°F open

-3

↑

5 mph · cross

78°F

12:10p · peak

-3

↑

4 mph · cross

79°F

1:10p

-3

↑

4 mph · cross

81°F

2:10p

-3

↑

5 mph · cross

80°F

3:10p

-3

↑

5 mph · cross

80°F

4:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× 85°F, wind 6 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Randy Vásquez · RHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nolan Arenado ✶ 54 C — WARM 45 0.220 85.1 8.2% 22.5%vs RHP 391 18.7% 50.0% 22.2% 35

2 Corbin Carroll 54 C — · 47 0.230 91.8 10.8% 17.0%vs RHP 402 13.7% 16.7% 15.4% 33

3 Gabriel Moreno 47 D — · 79 0.176 89.3 8.6% 15.9%vs RHP 400 12.5% 33.3% 16.4% 39

4 Ketel Marte 45 D — COOL 103 0.184 90.2 9.4% 13.5%vs RHP 408 13.4% 0.0% 9.6% 40

5 Tim Tawa 43 D — COOL 117 0.157 90.7 10.2% 22.7%vs RHP 397 9.8% 8.3% 9.4% 28

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 33 D — COOL 181 0.112 86.6 7.8% 9.7%vs RHP 415 3.3% 0.0% 8.3% 2

7 Ildemaro Vargas 31 D — COOL 198 0.124 87.4 5.5% 5.9%vs RHP 396 4.2% 0.0% 6.0% 12

8 Geraldo Perdomo 31 D — WARM 200 0.117 87.7 5.5% 8.9%vs RHP 383 5.5% 0.0% 6.4% 32

9 Jose Fernandez 29 D — COOL 205 0.088 87.8 6.0% 21.4%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 8

vs Michael Soroka · RHP 0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.54 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado 47 D — COOL 86 0.187 90.1 8.8% 26.4%vs RHP 398 18.2% 30.8% 17.9% 37

2 Jackson Merrill 45 D — WARM 102 0.187 91.6 10.0% 20.0%vs RHP 411 15.7% 7.7% 10.3% 34

3 Ty France 44 D — COOL 108 0.209 91.7 8.6% 25.8%vs RHP 390 14.6% 8.3% 12.2% 33

4 Fernando Tatis 40 D — WARM 144 0.182 93.0 10.1% 18.4%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 16.4% 37

5 Gavin Sheets 37 D — · 170 0.176 87.4 7.4% 27.6%vs RHP 395 10.3% 0.0% 12.6% 0

6 Xander Bogaerts 31 D — WARM 199 0.108 89.6 6.7% 16.2%vs RHP 404 8.0% 16.7% 6.8% 27

7 Jake Cronenworth 27 D — WARM 209 0.094 87.1 5.4% 12.0%vs RHP 377 3.6% 7.7% 8.0% 33

8 Freddy Fermin 27 D — COOL 211 0.110 87.5 5.6% 6.2%vs RHP 382 1.7% 0.0% 5.9% 8

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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