TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.25×

HOU @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 3:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.25× Wind 5 mph slight_out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

12:05p

+10 ↑

1:05p

+10 ↑

2:05p

+12 ↑

3:05p

+13 ↑

4:05p

conditions build late — the 4:05p window peaks +13

Best of game Isaac Paredes conv 37 · vs Johnson ⟷ Zack Gelof conv 32 · vs Lambert → edge: Zack Gelof

ATTACK Seth Johnson RHP

leak 61

1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.66 · leakiest side of this game

1 Isaac Paredes — C ●●●●●

2 Christian Walker — C+ ●●●●●

3 Yainer Diaz — C ●●●●●

FADE Peter Lambert RHP · HOU

leak 51

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zack Gelof — C+ ●●●●●

2 Lawrence Butler — C ●●●○○

3 Jeff Mcneil — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Zack Gelof: Match 31.6% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Isaac Paredes vs Johnson — 0.182 · 86.0 · 7.2% 41.7% 31.9% F B O C 59

· ATH Zack Gelof ✶ HOT vs Lambert — 0.223 · 89.6 · 8.7% 33.3% 31.6% F B O C+ 64

· — Christian Walker HOT vs Johnson — 0.197 · 89.1 · 10.0% 27.3% 36.9% F B O C+ 64

· — Yainer Diaz vs Johnson — 0.176 · 89.1 · 8.5% 27.3% 36.0% F B O C 59

· — Jeremy Peña vs Johnson — 0.190 · 88.5 · 8.5% 25.0% 37.9% F B O C+ 61

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Lambert Edge — 0.158 · 89.8 · 7.8% 16.7% 20.7% F B O C 51

· — Yordan Alvarez vs Johnson Edge — 0.284 · 94.3 · 12.9% 0.0% 35.6% F B O C+ 69

· — Taylor Trammell vs Johnson Edge — 0.152 · 88.5 · 11.4% 12.5% 20.6% F B O C 56

· — Cam Smith COOL vs Johnson — 0.183 · 88.6 · 10.9% 9.1% 19.9% F B O C 59

· ATH Shea Langeliers COOL vs Lambert — 0.214 · 91.3 · 9.7% 0.0% 17.5% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.106 · 86.4 · 3.4% 20.0% 8.6% F B O D 38

· ATH Carlos Cortes vs Lambert Edge — 0.148 · 88.4 · 6.5% 11.1% 12.6% F B O D 46

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Lambert — 0.130 · 90.9 · 7.6% 8.3% 9.8% F B O D 47

· — Christian Vazquez COOL vs Johnson — 0.115 · 85.9 · 4.7% 0.0% 17.0% F B O D 40

· — Jose Altuve COOL vs Johnson — 0.147 · 85.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 15.3% F B O D 44

· ATH Jonah Heim COOL vs Lambert — 0.163 · 87.2 · 6.4% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 46

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Peter Lambert — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Seth Johnson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Gelof Butler Mcneil Alvarez Walker Peña Diaz Smith Paredes Trammell

Legend

attack side — vs Johnson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Isaac Paredes — · 59

Zack Gelof — · 64

Christian Walker — · 64

Yainer Diaz — · 59

Jeremy Peña — · 61

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 12:05p · roof open

Park 1.25× Wind 5 mph slight_out 72°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

65°F

12:05p

+10

↑

5 mph · slight_out

68°F

1:05p

+10

↑

5 mph · slight_out

72°F

2:05p

+12

↑

6 mph · slight_out

74°F

3:05p

+13

↑

6 mph · out

76°F

4:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.25× 72°F, wind 5 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Peter Lambert · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof ✶ 64 C+ — HOT 15 0.223 89.6 8.7% 24.6%vs RHP 399 21.6% 33.3% 31.6% 34

2 Shea Langeliers 59 C — COOL 24 0.214 91.3 9.7% 22.2%vs RHP 417 18.3% 0.0% 17.5% 28

3 Lawrence Butler 51 C — WARM 58 0.158 89.8 7.8% 24.1%vs RHP 408 9.9% 16.7% 20.7% 32

4 Henry Bolte 47 D — WARM 84 0.130 90.9 7.6% 14.8%vs RHP 398 11.2% 8.3% 9.8% 28

5 Carlos Cortes 46 D — · 92 0.148 88.4 6.5% 17.2%vs RHP 398 5.4% 11.1% 12.6% 17

6 Jonah Heim 46 D — COOL 95 0.163 87.2 6.4% 6.7%vs RHP 409 7.6% 0.0% 10.7% 23

7 Jeff Mcneil 38 D — COOL 162 0.106 86.4 3.4% 11.3%vs RHP 380 7.4% 20.0% 8.6% 32

vs Seth Johnson · RHP 1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.66 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 69 C+ — · 4 0.284 94.3 12.9% 25.4%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 35.6% 32

2 Christian Walker 64 C+ — HOT 14 0.197 89.1 10.0% 23.1%vs RHP 395 17.4% 27.3% 36.9% 23

3 Jeremy Peña 61 C+ — WARM 18 0.190 88.5 8.5% 29.0%vs RHP 389 16.0% 25.0% 37.9% 29

4 Yainer Diaz 59 C — WARM 21 0.176 89.1 8.5% 31.6%vs RHP 387 12.4% 27.3% 36.0% 34

5 Cam Smith 59 C — COOL 22 0.183 88.6 10.9% 21.3%vs RHP 408 13.6% 9.1% 19.9% 21

6 Isaac Paredes 59 C — · 26 0.182 86.0 7.2% 17.4%vs RHP 376 14.9% 41.7% 31.9% 35

7 Taylor Trammell 56 C — WARM 35 0.152 88.5 11.4% 19.1%vs RHP 406 10.9% 12.5% 20.6% 9

8 Jose Altuve 44 D — COOL 107 0.147 85.6 6.6% 17.4%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 37

9 Christian Vazquez 40 D — COOL 145 0.115 85.9 4.7% 17.1%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 5

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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