TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ MIA

Neutral air · 1.02×

ATL @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 3:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 3 mph out 88°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-1 ↑

3:10p

-1 ↑

4:10p

-1 ↑

5:10p

-2 ↑

6:10p

-4 ↑

7:10p

best window is early — 3:10p at -1

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 22 · vs Ritchie ⟷ Dominic Smith conv 54 · vs Junk → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK JR Ritchie RHP · ATL

leak 95

1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers — C ●●●○○

2 Javier Sanoja — D ●●●○○

3 Jakob Marsee — D ●●○○○

FADE Janson Junk RHP · MIA

leak 54

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dominic Smith — D ●●●●●

2 Matt Olson — C ●●●●○

3 Mike Yastrzemski — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 23.9% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ COOL vs Junk Edge — 0.254 · 92.5 · 10.1% 25.0% 23.9% F B O C 57

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Ritchie Edge — 0.220 · 92.5 · 10.8% 22.2% 20.8% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Junk — 0.121 · 87.7 · 6.2% 100.0% 7.8% F B O D 33

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Junk Edge — 0.158 · 90.4 · 6.8% 25.0% 13.9% F B O D 38

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Ritchie — 0.158 · 86.9 · 4.9% 25.0% 8.3% F B O D 38

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Junk — 0.147 · 91.2 · 9.4% 18.2% 14.2% F B O D 41

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Ritchie Edge — 0.128 · 87.3 · 5.9% 16.7% 10.2% F B O D 36

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Junk Edge — 0.171 · 91.4 · 9.5% 16.7% 9.5% F B O D 44

· ATL Ronald Acuna COOL vs Junk — 0.198 · 89.7 · 9.7% 0.0% 21.1% F B O D 41

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Junk Edge — 0.156 · 87.0 · 5.2% 8.3% 7.8% F B O D 34

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Ritchie — 0.133 · 89.2 · 7.5% 8.3% 6.6% F B O D 37

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Ritchie — 0.205 · 91.3 · 10.6% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 45

· ATL Michael Harris vs Junk Edge — 0.193 · 90.6 · 8.5% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 40

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Junk — 0.118 · 86.4 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 26

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Ritchie Edge — 0.091 · 86.8 · 5.4% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Janson Junk — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for JR Ritchie — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Baldwin Riley Yastrzemski Smith Stowers Sanoja Marsee

Legend

attack side — vs Ritchie fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Matt Olson — · 57

Kyle Stowers — · 55

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 3:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.85× Wind 3 mph out 88°F retractable

-1

↑

2 mph · out

85°F

3:10p · peak

-1

↑

2 mph · out

85°F

4:10p

-1

↑

2 mph · out

85°F

5:10p

-2

↑

2 mph · slight_out

84°F

6:10p

-4

↑

2 mph · cross

82°F

7:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.02× 88°F, wind 3 mph NW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Janson Junk · RHP 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 57 C — COOL 30 0.254 92.5 10.1% 28.1%vs RHP 406 22.8% 25.0% 23.9% 37

2 Drake Baldwin 44 D — · 111 0.171 91.4 9.5% 21.5%vs RHP 401 15.6% 16.7% 9.5% 35

3 Ronald Acuna 41 D — COOL 133 0.198 89.7 9.7% 27.3%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 31

4 Austin Riley 41 D — COOL 135 0.147 91.2 9.4% 18.3%vs RHP 411 10.1% 18.2% 14.2% 23

5 Michael Harris 40 D — · 146 0.193 90.6 8.5% 25.0%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 38

6 Mike Yastrzemski 38 D — · 157 0.158 90.4 6.8% 16.2%vs RHP 386 8.8% 25.0% 13.9% 21

7 Ozzie Albies 34 D — COOL 179 0.156 87.0 5.2% 13.0%vs RHP 388 12.5% 8.3% 7.8% 32

8 Dominic Smith 33 D — · 188 0.121 87.7 6.2% 14.0%vs RHP 392 8.8% 100.0% 7.8% 0

9 Mauricio Dubon 26 D — WARM 212 0.118 86.4 5.2% 8.9%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 37

vs JR Ritchie · RHP 1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 55 C — · 38 0.220 92.5 10.8% 23.5%vs RHP 399 15.2% 22.2% 20.8% 28

2 Heriberto Hernández 45 D — COOL 98 0.205 91.3 10.6% 22.9%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 33

3 Javier Sanoja 38 D — WARM 164 0.158 86.9 4.9% 12.1%vs RHP 385 9.5% 25.0% 8.3% 40

4 Otto Lopez 37 D — WARM 172 0.133 89.2 7.5% 9.2%vs RHP 398 6.4% 8.3% 6.6% 35

5 Jakob Marsee 36 D — WARM 175 0.128 87.3 5.9% 13.2%vs RHP 386 8.5% 16.7% 10.2% 30

6 Xavier Edwards 28 D — COOL 208 0.091 86.8 5.4% 2.5%vs RHP 396 3.6% 0.0% 6.3% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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