TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ SEA

Neutral air · 1.03×

LAA @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 3:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 10 mph cross 62°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-7 ↑

12:10p

-6 ↑

1:10p

-5 ↑

2:10p

-5 ↑

3:10p

-5 ↑

4:10p

the 2:10p window peaks -5

Best of game Zach Neto conv 19 · vs Gilbert ⟷ Randy Arozarena conv 22 · vs Kikuchi → edge: Cal Raleigh

ATTACK Logan Gilbert RHP · SEA

leak 92

1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.58 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto — C ●●●○○

2 Vaughn Grissom — D ●●○○○

3 Mike Trout — C ●●○○○

FADE Yusei Kikuchi LHP · LAA

leak 82

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Randy Arozarena — C ●●●○○

2 Cal Raleigh — C ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cal Raleigh: Match 24.4% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Randy Arozarena HOT vs Kikuchi Edge — 0.201 · 90.8 · 8.3% 16.7% 27.3% F B O C 54

· SEA Cal Raleigh ✶ vs Kikuchi Edge — 0.190 · 90.1 · 11.2% 16.7% 24.4% F B O C 56

· LAA Zach Neto vs Gilbert — 0.199 · 89.9 · 10.8% 15.4% 23.6% F B O C 56

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Kikuchi — 0.221 · 91.2 · 10.4% 8.3% 14.4% F B O C 55

· LAA Mike Trout vs Gilbert — 0.180 · 90.1 · 12.6% 7.7% 13.7% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Gilbert — 0.147 · 87.6 · 8.2% 15.4% 11.9% F B O D 44

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Gilbert Edge — 0.154 · 88.8 · 9.5% 7.7% 11.6% F B O D 46

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Kikuchi Edge — 0.156 · 90.3 · 8.8% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 47

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Gilbert — 0.109 · 87.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 38

· SEA J.P. Crawford vs Kikuchi — 0.126 · 87.7 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 37

· LAA Wade Meckler vs Gilbert Edge — 0.089 · 87.2 · 5.4% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 33

· SEA Cole Young vs Kikuchi — 0.136 · 88.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 40

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Kikuchi — 0.088 · 87.1 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Logan Gilbert — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Yusei Kikuchi — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto Grissom Raleigh Arozarena

Legend

attack side — vs Gilbert fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 12:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.03× Wind 10 mph cross 62°F retractable

-7

↑

10 mph · cross

55°F

12:10p

-6

↑

10 mph · cross

58°F

1:10p

-5

↑

11 mph · cross

60°F

2:10p · peak

-5

↑

10 mph · cross

62°F

3:10p

-5

↑

10 mph · cross

63°F

4:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 62°F, wind 10 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Gilbert · RHP 1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.58 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 56 C — WARM 34 0.199 89.9 10.8% 18.4%vs RHP 405 16.3% 15.4% 23.6% 25

2 Mike Trout 54 C — · 49 0.180 90.1 12.6% 21.6%vs RHP 409 12.9% 7.7% 13.7% 27

3 Josh Lowe 46 D — WARM 94 0.154 88.8 9.5% 19.4%vs RHP 393 9.6% 7.7% 11.6% 19

4 Vaughn Grissom 44 D — · 109 0.147 87.6 8.2% 18.9%vs RHP 389 10.6% 15.4% 11.9% 37

5 Oswald Peraza 38 D — WARM 160 0.109 87.6 7.8% 8.0%vs RHP 386 4.4% 0.0% 10.4% 7

6 Wade Meckler 33 D — · 182 0.089 87.2 5.4% 7.5%vs RHP 396 4.2% 0.0% 7.8% 39

vs Yusei Kikuchi · LHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh ✶ 56 C — WARM 33 0.190 90.1 11.2% 26.5%vs LHP 386 15.8% 16.7% 24.4% 22

2 Dominic Canzone 55 C — · 36 0.221 91.2 10.4% 23.8%vs LHP 401 14.8% 8.3% 14.4% 37

3 Randy Arozarena 54 C — HOT 44 0.201 90.8 8.3% 32.4%vs LHP 389 15.4% 16.7% 27.3% 32

4 Julio Rodríguez 47 D — · 83 0.156 90.3 8.8% 17.4%vs LHP 407 14.5% 8.3% 10.7% 34

5 Cole Young 40 D — · 149 0.136 88.3 6.6% 7.7%vs LHP 384 10.6% 0.0% 7.1% 26

6 J.P. Crawford 37 D — · 166 0.126 87.7 7.3% 13.3%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 33

7 Josh Naylor 33 D — · 186 0.088 87.1 6.2% 9.1%vs LHP 392 5.1% 0.0% 7.0% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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