TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ TOR

Suppressed air · 0.95×

CIN @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 3:07p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 8 mph in 73°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-9 ↑

3:07p

-10 ↑

4:07p

-10 ↑

5:07p

-9 ↑

6:07p

-8 ↑

7:07p

conditions build late — the 7:07p window peaks -8

Best of game Elly De La Cruz conv 29 · vs Scherzer ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 17 · vs Williamson → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Max Scherzer RHP · TOR

leak 73

1.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Elly De La Cruz — C+ ●●●●○

2 Dane Myers — D ●●●○○

3 Eugenio Suarez — C ●●○○○

FADE Brandon Williamson LHP · CIN

leak 72

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto — C ●●●○○

2 George Springer — D ●○○○○

3 Andres Gimenez — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: Match 27.0% · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ vs Scherzer Edge — 0.236 · 94.7 · 11.8% 30.8% 27.0% F B O C+ 65

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Williamson Edge — 0.222 · 90.6 · 10.8% 15.4% 18.6% F B O C 59

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Scherzer — 0.221 · 88.5 · 10.2% 0.0% 29.3% F B O C 52

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Scherzer — 0.197 · 90.4 · 10.2% 7.7% 14.5% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CIN Dane Myers vs Scherzer — 0.120 · 89.2 · 6.4% 25.0% 15.1% F B O D 41

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Williamson Edge — 0.154 · 88.6 · 7.6% 9.1% 8.8% F B O D 44

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Scherzer Edge — 0.193 · 88.4 · 8.9% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 48

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Scherzer — 0.164 · 91.0 · 10.1% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 47

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Scherzer — 0.150 · 87.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 43

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Williamson — 0.116 · 85.4 · 5.6% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 33

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Williamson — 0.111 · 87.0 · 4.8% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 35

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Williamson Edge — 0.096 · 90.4 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 37

· TOR Ernie Clement vs Williamson Edge — 0.106 · 84.2 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 32

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Williamson Edge — 0.103 · 86.3 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Max Scherzer — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Brandon Williamson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Suarez Myers Okamoto

Legend

attack side — vs Scherzer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Elly De La Cruz — · 65

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 3:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 8 mph in 73°F retractable

-9

↑

8 mph · in

68°F

3:07p

-10

↑

9 mph · in

69°F

4:07p

-10

↑

9 mph · in

69°F

5:07p

-9

↑

8 mph · in

68°F

6:07p

-8

↑

7 mph · in

67°F

7:07p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 73°F, wind 8 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Max Scherzer · RHP 1.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 65 C+ — WARM 11 0.236 94.7 11.8% 26.0%vs RHP 402 19.1% 30.8% 27.0% 28

2 Sal Stewart 54 C — COOL 48 0.197 90.4 10.2% 23.5%vs RHP 397 16.4% 7.7% 14.5% 31

3 Eugenio Suarez 52 C — · 54 0.221 88.5 10.2% 30.2%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 29.3% 23

4 Jj Bleday 48 D — COOL 71 0.193 88.4 8.9% 20.2%vs RHP 389 15.4% 0.0% 12.3% 28

5 Tyler Stephenson 47 D — · 82 0.164 91.0 10.1% 20.0%vs RHP 392 9.4% 0.0% 11.6% 24

6 Matt Mclain 43 D — COOL 114 0.150 87.9 8.8% 11.5%vs RHP 391 10.0% 0.0% 9.4% 19

7 Dane Myers 41 D — WARM 134 0.120 89.2 6.4% 17.4%vs RHP 387 8.1% 25.0% 15.1% 20

vs Brandon Williamson · LHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 59 C — · 23 0.222 90.6 10.8% 24.4%vs LHP 400 18.8% 15.4% 18.6% 32

2 George Springer 44 D — COOL 110 0.154 88.6 7.6% 12.1%vs LHP 394 10.6% 9.1% 8.8% 28

3 Vladimir Guerrero 37 D — WARM 171 0.096 90.4 7.8% 12.9%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 29

4 Nathan Lukes 35 D — WARM 178 0.111 87.0 4.8% 14.3%vs LHP 382 7.1% 0.0% 9.1% 30

5 Andres Gimenez 33 D — COOL 180 0.116 85.4 5.6% 15.0%vs LHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 20

6 Ernie Clement 32 D — WARM 192 0.106 84.2 4.3% 7.7%vs LHP 376 6.1% 0.0% 7.0% 37

7 Myles Straw 32 D — COOL 193 0.103 86.3 4.9% 4.5%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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