TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ MIN

Suppressed air · 0.94×

TEX @ MIN

Target Field · 3:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 3 mph out 66°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

2:10p

-3 ↑

3:10p

-2 ↑

4:10p

-3 ↑

5:10p

-5 ↑

6:10p

the 4:10p window peaks -2

Best of game Corey Seager conv 17 · vs Kremer ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 10 · vs Gore → edge: Corey Seager

ATTACK Dean Kremer RHP · MIN

leak 88

1.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Corey Seager — C ●●●○○

2 Jake Burger — C ●●○○○

3 Wyatt Langford — D ●○○○○

FADE MacKenzie Gore LHP · TEX

leak 8

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens — C ●●○○○

2 Josh Bell — D ●○○○○

3 Brooks Lee — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Corey Seager: Match 16.9% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Corey Seager ✶ vs Kremer Edge — 0.194 · 91.7 · 11.6% 16.7% 16.9% F B O C 55

· TEX Jake Burger vs Kremer — 0.190 · 90.1 · 10.6% 16.7% 13.2% F B O C 53

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Gore — 0.224 · 91.9 · 9.8% 8.3% 11.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.160 · 89.8 · 9.0% 8.3% 9.3% F B O D 43

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.176 · 88.1 · 6.0% 8.3% 9.3% F B O D 41

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Gore Edge — 0.120 · 85.4 · 5.7% 8.3% 6.6% F B O D 33

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Kremer — 0.186 · 88.6 · 8.7% 0.0% 13.3% F B O D 47

· MIN Ryan Jeffers COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.203 · 88.7 · 9.4% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 47

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Kremer — 0.161 · 88.9 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 43

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.150 · 89.7 · 9.5% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 42

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Kremer Edge — 0.145 · 92.0 · 9.2% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 43

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Kremer Edge — 0.119 · 87.6 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 36

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.093 · 89.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 31

· TEX Nicky Lopez vs Kremer Edge — 0.038 · 84.7 · — 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Dean Kremer — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for MacKenzie Gore — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Seager Burger

Legend

attack side — vs Kremer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 2:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 3 mph out 66°F open

-3

↑

2 mph · cross

62°F

2:10p

-3

↑

2 mph · cross

63°F

3:10p

-2

↑

3 mph · slight_out

64°F

4:10p · peak

-3

↑

3 mph · cross

64°F

5:10p

-5

↑

3 mph · in

65°F

6:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 66°F, wind 3 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Dean Kremer · RHP 1.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corey Seager ✶ 55 C — · 40 0.194 91.7 11.6% 22.2%vs RHP 396 17.8% 16.7% 16.9% 32

2 Jake Burger 53 C — · 52 0.190 90.1 10.6% 20.0%vs RHP 402 16.4% 16.7% 13.2% 28

3 Wyatt Langford 47 D — COOL 80 0.186 88.6 8.7% 22.4%vs RHP 401 14.0% 0.0% 13.3% 21

4 Ezequiel Duran 43 D — COOL 116 0.161 88.9 7.5% 19.7%vs RHP 397 11.9% 0.0% 11.1% 28

5 Brandon Nimmo 43 D — COOL 119 0.145 92.0 9.2% 11.1%vs RHP 404 8.7% 0.0% 8.6% 21

6 Evan Carter 36 D — COOL 176 0.119 87.6 6.7% 11.7%vs RHP 380 6.9% 0.0% 7.9% 17

7 Nicky Lopez 19 D — · 223 0.038 84.7 — 4.3%vs RHP 397 1.6% 0.0% 7.0% 13

vs MacKenzie Gore · LHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 52 C — COOL 55 0.224 91.9 9.8% 17.9%vs LHP 390 17.7% 8.3% 11.8% 34

2 Ryan Jeffers 47 D — COOL 81 0.203 88.7 9.4% 13.0%vs LHP 397 14.6% 0.0% 11.8% 21

3 Josh Bell 43 D — COOL 118 0.160 89.8 9.0% 13.0%vs LHP 407 11.5% 8.3% 9.3% 35

4 Royce Lewis 42 D — COOL 129 0.150 89.7 9.5% 12.9%vs LHP 402 12.1% 0.0% 8.7% 28

5 Brooks Lee 41 D — COOL 137 0.176 88.1 6.0% 7.3%vs LHP 375 15.5% 8.3% 9.3% 40

6 Luke Keaschall 33 D — WARM 187 0.120 85.4 5.7% 4.7%vs LHP 378 7.1% 8.3% 6.6% 41

7 Victor Caratini 31 D — COOL 196 0.093 89.4 7.3% 11.1%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.