TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ PHI

Suppressed air · 0.65×

TB @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 3:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 13 mph in 60°F Roof open

Hourly window

-12 ↑

3:05p

-11 ↑

4:05p

-9 ↑

5:05p

-8 ↑

6:05p

-7 ↑

7:05p

conditions build late — the 7:05p window peaks -7

Best of game Nick Fortes conv 25 · vs Wheeler ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 14 · vs Martinez → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI

leak 81

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nick Fortes — D ●●●●○

2 Jonathan Aranda — D ●●●○○

3 Cedric Mullins — D ●●●○○

FADE Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 40

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber — C+ ●●○○○

2 Brandon Marsh — D ●●○○○

3 Bryce Harper — C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 20.2% · 14D pace 8.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs Wheeler — 0.244 · 92.6 · 8.9% 15.4% 22.2% F B O C+ 60

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.271 · 92.4 · 10.2% 8.3% 20.2% F B O C+ 65

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.215 · 90.0 · 8.3% 0.0% 16.8% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TB Nick Fortes HOT vs Wheeler — 0.119 · 85.6 · 3.8% 33.3% 16.3% F B O D 38

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Wheeler Edge — 0.160 · 91.0 · 7.9% 20.0% 21.0% F B O D 49

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Wheeler Edge — 0.141 · 88.0 · 5.2% 20.0% 17.9% F B O D 42

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.150 · 89.3 · 7.4% 11.1% 12.5% F B O D 46

· TB Richie Palacios vs Wheeler Edge — 0.140 · 86.4 · 5.0% 11.1% 12.3% F B O D 39

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Wheeler — 0.153 · 90.9 · 6.6% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 39

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Wheeler — 0.149 · 85.8 · 4.3% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 37

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Martinez — 0.137 · 88.4 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 42

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Martinez — 0.125 · 89.6 · 6.0% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 37

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Martinez — 0.135 · 90.6 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 42

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.139 · 89.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 41

· TB Taylor Walls vs Wheeler Edge — 0.074 · 85.6 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 29

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Wheeler Edge — 0.049 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 19

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Martinez Edge — 0.091 · 87.1 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Zack Wheeler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Nick Martinez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Aranda Mullins Fortes Schwarber

Legend

attack side — vs Wheeler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jonathan Aranda — · 49

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 3:05p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 13 mph in 60°F open

-12

↑

14 mph · in

59°F

3:05p

-11

↑

13 mph · in

59°F

4:05p

-9

↑

11 mph · in

59°F

5:05p

-8

↑

10 mph · in

60°F

6:05p

-7

↑

9 mph · in

61°F

7:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.65× 60°F, wind 13 mph NNE (in) — modifier: -4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zack Wheeler · RHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 60 C+ — COOL 19 0.244 92.6 8.9% 40.7%vs RHP 413 24.7% 15.4% 22.2% 36

2 Jonathan Aranda 49 D — WARM 65 0.160 91.0 7.9% 18.8%vs RHP 390 12.9% 20.0% 21.0% 18

3 Cedric Mullins 42 D — WARM 126 0.141 88.0 5.2% 16.7%vs RHP 386 11.6% 20.0% 17.9% 12

4 Yandy Diaz 39 D — · 151 0.153 90.9 6.6% 24.1%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 35

5 Richie Palacios 39 D — WARM 152 0.140 86.4 5.0% 19.2%vs RHP 385 8.5% 11.1% 12.3% 18

6 Nick Fortes 38 D — HOT 159 0.119 85.6 3.8% 19.1%vs RHP 386 6.2% 33.3% 16.3% 15

7 Jonny Deluca 37 D — COOL 169 0.149 85.8 4.3% 21.2%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 25

8 Taylor Walls 29 D — WARM 204 0.074 85.6 3.7% 2.2%vs RHP 383 0.8% 0.0% 7.8% 12

9 Chandler Simpson 19 D — COOL 222 0.049 83.6 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 42

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 65 C+ — COOL 12 0.271 92.4 10.2% 40.0%vs RHP 402 22.5% 8.3% 20.2% 28

2 Bryce Harper 54 C — COOL 46 0.215 90.0 8.3% 33.8%vs RHP 403 16.7% 0.0% 16.8% 34

3 Brandon Marsh 46 D — COOL 93 0.150 89.3 7.4% 17.6%vs RHP 391 10.7% 11.1% 12.5% 16

4 Trea Turner 42 D — COOL 128 0.137 88.4 6.4% 18.6%vs RHP 390 11.8% 0.0% 9.6% 34

5 Alec Bohm 42 D — WARM 130 0.135 90.6 6.4% 12.1%vs RHP 394 9.5% 0.0% 8.6% 37

6 Bryson Stott 41 D — COOL 139 0.139 89.3 6.4% 8.6%vs RHP 393 6.7% 0.0% 8.0% 35

7 J.T. Realmuto 37 D — WARM 167 0.125 89.6 6.0% 17.3%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 25

8 Justin Crawford 32 D — WARM 191 0.091 87.1 3.7% 3.9%vs RHP 395 2.5% 0.0% 7.0% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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