TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ DET

Playable air · 1.05×

PIT @ DET

Comerica Park · 3:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 8 mph slight_out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

3:10p

+4 ↑

4:10p

+4 ↑

5:10p

+3 ↑

6:10p

+1 ↑

7:10p

best window is early — 4:10p at +4

Best of game Spencer Torkelson conv 29 · vs Jones ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 39 · vs Proxy → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 75

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Spencer Torkelson — C ●●●●○

2 Riley Greene — D ●●○○○

3 Hao-Yu Lee — D ●●○○○

FADE DET Bullpen Proxy · DET

leak 45

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe — C+ ●●●●●

2 Oneil Cruz — C+ ●●●○○

3 Jake Mangum — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: Match 24.1% · 14D pace 54.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ vs Proxy — 0.230 · 91.0 · 12.3% 54.5% 24.1% F B O C+ 63

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Jones — 0.207 · 89.5 · 9.6% 33.3% 24.2% F B O C 53

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Proxy — 0.206 · 94.1 · 15.3% 18.2% 23.7% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Jones Edge — 0.194 · 90.0 · 10.7% 16.7% 15.7% F B O D 49

· DET Hao-Yu Lee COOL vs Jones — 0.161 · 89.6 · 8.1% 18.2% 10.8% F B O D 43

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Proxy — 0.089 · 85.9 · 2.3% 12.5% 6.7% F B O D 27

· DET Dillon Dingler vs Jones — 0.205 · 88.8 · 8.8% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 47

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Proxy — 0.177 · 89.3 · 6.8% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 42

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Proxy — 0.161 · 90.9 · 11.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 46

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Jones Edge — 0.148 · 87.9 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 37

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Jones — 0.103 · 86.2 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 32

· PIT Konnor Griffin COOL vs Proxy — 0.121 · 87.9 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 34

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Proxy — 0.121 · 86.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 34

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Jones Edge — 0.095 · 85.8 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 26

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Proxy — 0.086 · 86.4 · 3.1% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 26

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Proxy — 0.065 · 86.3 · 2.4% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for DET Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jared Jones — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Cruz Torkelson Greene Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Jones fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Brandon Lowe — · 63

Spencer Torkelson — · 53

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 3:10p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 8 mph slight_out 74°F open

↑

7 mph · out

67°F

3:10p

↑

7 mph · out

69°F

4:10p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

69°F

5:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

66°F

6:10p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

64°F

7:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.05× 74°F, wind 8 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs DET Bullpen Proxy 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 63 C+ — WARM 20 0.230 91.0 12.3% 21.2% 392 19.6% 54.5% 24.1% 26

2 Oneil Cruz 61 C+ — COOL 29 0.206 94.1 15.3% 34.5% 414 21.6% 18.2% 23.7% 25

3 Bryan Reynolds 46 D — COOL 123 0.161 90.9 11.3% 13.2% 407 10.3% 0.0% 9.0% 26

4 Ryan O'Hearn 42 D — COOL 156 0.177 89.3 6.8% 17.3% 385 12.8% 0.0% 10.5% 26

5 Konnor Griffin 34 D — COOL 201 0.121 87.9 6.3% 10.2% 401 4.6% 0.0% 7.0% 40

6 Spencer Horwitz 34 D — COOL 202 0.121 86.8 5.8% 8.6% 395 7.8% 0.0% 6.9% 14

7 Jake Mangum 27 D — HOT 218 0.089 85.9 2.3% 6.9% 394 4.7% 12.5% 6.7% 20

8 Nick Gonzales 26 D — WARM 220 0.086 86.4 3.1% 5.5% 397 5.5% 0.0% 6.5% 24

9 Jared Triolo 24 D — COOL 221 0.065 86.3 2.4% 5.4% 409 2.3% 0.0% 6.5% 10

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Spencer Torkelson 53 C — WARM 53 0.207 89.5 9.6% 26.8%vs RHP 390 16.1% 33.3% 24.2% 19

2 Riley Greene 49 D — COOL 69 0.194 90.0 10.7% 16.9%vs RHP 400 12.9% 16.7% 15.7% 31

3 Dillon Dingler 47 D — WARM 87 0.205 88.8 8.8% 26.1%vs RHP 398 16.8% 0.0% 14.1% 27

4 Hao-Yu Lee 43 D — COOL 120 0.161 89.6 8.1% 18.2%vs RHP 396 15.4% 18.2% 10.8% 38

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 37 D — · 173 0.148 87.9 7.4% 10.8%vs RHP 393 18.2% 0.0% 8.4% 37

6 Gleyber Torres 32 D — COOL 194 0.103 86.2 6.8% 12.5%vs RHP 393 7.7% 0.0% 7.6% 23

7 Zach Mckinstry 26 D — COOL 216 0.095 85.8 3.9% 5.4%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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