TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ CIN

Playable air · 1.06×

BAL @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 1:05p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 2 mph cross 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

1:05p

-2 ↑

2:05p

-3 ↑

3:05p

-4 ↑

4:05p

-4 ↑

5:05p

best window is early — 1:05p at -1

Best of game Samuel Basallo conv 26 · vs Lodolo ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 25 · vs Bradish → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Nick Lodolo LHP · CIN

leak 92

1.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.79 · leakiest side of this game

1 Samuel Basallo — C+ ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso +280 C+ ●●●○○

3 Coby Mayo +265 C ●●●○○

FADE Kyle Bradish RHP · BAL

leak 92

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +390 C ●●●●○

2 Spencer Steer — C ●●○○○

3 Elly De La Cruz +350 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: 13.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Lodolo — 0.202 · 91.2 · 9.8% 30.0% 22.6% F B O C+ 60

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Bradish +390 0.209 · 91.1 · 11.1% 23.1% 27.5% F B O C 59

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ COOL vs Lodolo Edge +280 0.215 · 94.1 · 10.1% 16.7% 24.8% F B O C+ 63

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Lodolo Edge +265 0.178 · 91.8 · 8.9% 12.5% 22.6% F B O C 55

· CIN Spencer Steer COOL vs Bradish — 0.184 · 89.5 · 10.3% 11.1% 13.6% F B O C 52

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Lodolo — 0.155 · 86.5 · 9.9% 11.1% 13.5% F B O C 52

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Bradish Edge +350 0.219 · 94.4 · 11.0% 9.1% 15.2% F B O C 57

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Bradish Edge +390 0.245 · 89.0 · 8.8% 0.0% 19.3% F B O C 52

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe COOL vs Bradish Edge +500 0.209 · 88.7 · 9.5% 0.0% 16.8% F B O C 52

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Lodolo +370 0.193 · 89.5 · 8.0% 0.0% 16.7% F B O C 54

· BAL Adley Rutschman COOL vs Lodolo Edge +400 0.190 · 89.4 · 8.2% 0.0% 13.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· BAL Taylor Ward vs Lodolo Edge +475 0.098 · 89.3 · 6.5% 16.7% 10.8% F B O D 42

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Bradish +500 0.143 · 91.1 · 9.5% 12.5% 10.4% F B O D 47

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Lodolo Edge +575 0.133 · 87.5 · 6.1% 11.1% 9.1% F B O D 43

· BAL Blaze Alexander vs Lodolo Edge +575 0.124 · 92.2 · 7.5% 11.1% 8.4% F B O D 45

· CIN Tj Friedl vs Bradish Edge +700 0.097 · 88.0 · 5.1% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 37

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Bradish +390 0.154 · 87.1 · 8.3% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 42

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Bradish — 0.147 · 88.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.1% ← leak BRK 25.2% OFF 23.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Pete Alonso R Edge

16.4% 6.8% 14.3% 13.4% C+ 63 +280

Samuel Basallo L

14.3% 9.1% 9.8% 11.7% C+ 60 —

Coby Mayo R Edge

8.6% 9.8% 11.8% 9.4% C 55 +265

Gunnar Henderson L

8.7% 7.0% 7.8% 7.9% C 54 +370

Colton Cowser L

15.4% 16.7% 3.0% 12.5% C 52 —

Adley Rutschman S Edge

12.6% 2.4% 5.0% 8.7% C 51 +400

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

108

Blaze Alexander R Edge

7.8% 6.2% 0.0% 6.6% D 45 +575

124

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.9% 10.5% 0.0% 5.0% D 43 +575

131

Taylor Ward R Edge

8.1% 0.0% 3.0% 5.2% D 42 +475

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.1% usage) carries Lodolo's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.5% BRK 48.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Sal Stewart R

16.2% 10.5% 14.1% C 59 +390

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

21.4% 11.9% 15.5% C 57 +350

Jj Bleday L Edge

10.6% 8.3% 9.1% C 52 +390

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

8.9% 10.0% 10.1% C 52 +500

Spencer Steer R

13.0% 10.3% 12.4% C 52 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Tyler Stephenson R

14.4% 4.5% 11.0% D 47 +500

117

Matt Mclain R

10.9% 11.1% 9.9% D 43 —

127

Eugenio Suarez R

9.1% 3.6% 7.9% D 42 +390

164

Tj Friedl L Edge

3.3% 4.5% 3.0% D 37 +700

Read the columns: no single family leads Bradish's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Basallo Mayo Ward Stewart

Legend

attack side — vs Lodolo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Samuel Basallo — · 60

Sal Stewart +390 · 59

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 2 mph cross 71°F open

-1

↑

8 mph · cross

79°F

1:05p · peak

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

80°F

2:05p

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

82°F

3:05p

-4

↑

10 mph · cross

83°F

4:05p

-4

↑

10 mph · in

84°F

5:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 71°F, wind 2 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Lodolo · LHP 1.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.79 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 63 C+ +280 COOL 18 0.215 94.1 10.1% 11.5%vs LHP 399 19.3% 16.7% 24.8% 23

2 Samuel Basallo 60 C+ — COOL 32 0.202 91.2 9.8% 16.7%vs LHP 399 15.9% 30.0% 22.6% 25

3 Coby Mayo 55 C +265 WARM 56 0.178 91.8 8.9% 41.2%vs LHP 403 14.5% 12.5% 22.6% 15

4 Gunnar Henderson 54 C +370 COOL 62 0.193 89.5 8.0% 43.8%vs LHP 388 17.4% 0.0% 16.7% 40

5 Colton Cowser 52 C — · 73 0.155 86.5 9.9% 20.0%vs LHP 417 15.9% 11.1% 13.5% 16

6 Adley Rutschman 51 C +400 COOL 79 0.190 89.4 8.2% 14.3%vs LHP 400 10.6% 0.0% 13.5% 10

7 Blaze Alexander 45 D +575 WARM 108 0.124 92.2 7.5% 7.7%vs LHP 392 5.4% 11.1% 8.4% 21

8 Leody Taveras 43 D +575 · 124 0.133 87.5 6.1% 11.1%vs LHP 410 1.7% 11.1% 9.1% 20

9 Taylor Ward 42 D +475 WARM 131 0.098 89.3 6.5% 10.5%vs LHP 393 5.6% 16.7% 10.8% 33

vs Kyle Bradish · RHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 59 C +390 · 34 0.209 91.1 11.1% 21.4%vs RHP 393 12.3% 23.1% 27.5% 33

2 Elly De La Cruz 57 C +350 · 47 0.219 94.4 11.0% 16.7%vs RHP 395 14.9% 9.1% 15.2% 29

3 Jj Bleday 52 C +390 COOL 69 0.245 89.0 8.8% 27.8%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 26

4 Nathaniel Lowe 52 C +500 COOL 71 0.209 88.7 9.5% 30.0%vs RHP 398 14.0% 0.0% 16.8% 12

5 Spencer Steer 52 C — COOL 72 0.184 89.5 10.3% 17.0%vs RHP 394 12.5% 11.1% 13.6% 23

6 Tyler Stephenson 47 D +500 WARM 98 0.143 91.1 9.5% 15.8%vs RHP 384 7.4% 12.5% 10.4% 24

7 Matt Mclain 43 D — COOL 117 0.147 88.9 8.8% 10.2%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 11

8 Eugenio Suarez 42 D +390 · 127 0.154 87.1 8.3% 20.8%vs RHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 23

9 Tj Friedl 37 D +700 WARM 164 0.097 88.0 5.1% 11.1%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 8

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.