TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.28×

PIT @ WSH

Nationals Park · 1:00p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 1 mph in 96°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

1:00p

+3 ↑

2:00p

+3 ↑

3:00p

+3 ↑

4:00p

+3 ↑

5:00p

conditions hold steady across the window · +3 FIT

Best of game James Wood conv 27 · vs Chandler ⟷ Esmerlyn Valdez conv 28 · vs Cavalli → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Bubba Chandler RHP · PIT

leak 84

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · leakiest side of this game

1 James Wood — C+ ●●●●○

2 Curtis Mead — C ●●●●○

3 Jorbit Vivas — D ●●○○○

FADE Cade Cavalli RHP · WSH

leak 15

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · stingy — thin edge

1 Esmerlyn Valdez — C ●●●●○

2 Endy Rodríguez — D ●●●○○

3 Tyler Callihan — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: 22.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Esmerlyn Valdez vs Cavalli — 0.403 · 90.6 · 14.4% 28.6% 26.9% F B O C 55

· WSH James Wood ✶ COOL vs Chandler Edge — 0.251 · 95.4 · 12.6% 23.1% 31.7% F B O C+ 63

· WSH Curtis Mead COOL vs Chandler — 0.238 · 87.9 · 8.7% 27.3% 24.1% F B O C 53

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Cavalli Edge — 0.250 · 90.9 · 9.7% 16.7% 16.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· PIT Endy Rodríguez vs Cavalli Edge — 0.219 · 92.6 · 10.0% 14.3% 24.4% F B O D 46

· PIT Tyler Callihan COOL vs Cavalli Edge — 0.250 · 84.8 · 8.7% 14.3% 20.3% F B O D 42

· WSH Jorbit Vivas vs Chandler Edge — 0.102 · 83.3 · 5.4% 16.7% 13.2% F B O D 33

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Cavalli Edge — 0.188 · 90.9 · 8.6% 15.4% 12.4% F B O D 43

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Chandler Edge — 0.227 · 90.0 · 8.3% 0.0% 25.9% F B O D 45

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Cavalli — 0.085 · 85.9 · 4.5% 16.7% 7.4% F B O D 27

· PIT Konnor Griffin vs Cavalli — 0.132 · 87.8 · 7.8% 14.3% 7.9% F B O D 35

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Chandler Edge — 0.169 · 87.6 · 7.1% 9.1% 11.3% F B O D 40

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn vs Cavalli Edge — 0.177 · 89.6 · 6.9% 8.3% 11.3% F B O D 39

· WSH Jose Tena COOL vs Chandler Edge — 0.152 · 92.2 · 8.1% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 37

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Chandler Edge — 0.178 · 89.4 · 6.2% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 39

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Chandler — 0.135 · 90.9 · 7.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 39

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Cavalli Edge — 0.057 · 83.9 · 3.0% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.3% ← leak BRK 39.3% OFF 8.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Esmerlyn Valdez R

22.2% 42.9% 0.0% 27.9% C 55 —

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.5% 7.8% 13.6% 13.1% C 51 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

108

Endy Rodríguez S Edge

20.6% 9.1% 0.0% 13.4% D 46 —

127

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

10.2% 14.1% 3.7% 9.8% D 43 —

135

Tyler Callihan L Edge

13.3% 7.1% 10.0% 10.3% D 42 —

164

Ryan O'Hearn L Edge

8.6% 3.4% 4.8% 6.8% D 39 —

201

Konnor Griffin R

8.4% 8.8% 5.9% 8.3% D 35 —

232

Nick Gonzales R

1.9% 4.9% 0.0% 2.7% D 27 —

240

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.3% usage) carries Cavalli's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.7% ← leak BRK 27.9% OFF 16.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

James Wood L Edge

21.5% 26.2% 16.0% 22.2% C+ 63 —

Curtis Mead R

12.5% 11.3% 3.7% 10.9% C 53 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

113

Cj Abrams L Edge

11.4% 7.0% 10.3% 9.7% D 45 —

156

Daylen Lile L Edge

7.5% 10.0% 4.5% 7.6% D 40 —

165

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

8.8% 0.0% 3.3% 5.4% D 39 —

166

Dylan Crews R

6.0% 25.0% 0.0% 8.6% D 39 —

183

Jose Tena L Edge

10.2% 13.0% 3.3% 8.9% D 37 —

220

Jorbit Vivas L Edge

3.6% 5.4% 4.0% 4.1% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.7% usage) carries Chandler's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Valdez Lowe Rodríguez Reynolds Callihan Wood Mead Vivas

Legend

attack side — vs Chandler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Esmerlyn Valdez — · 55

James Wood — · 63

Curtis Mead — · 53

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 1:00p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 1 mph in 96°F open

↑

4 mph · slight_out

83°F

1:00p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

83°F

2:00p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

83°F

3:00p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

83°F

4:00p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

83°F

5:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.28× 96°F, wind 1 mph W (in) — modifier: +3. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cade Cavalli · RHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Esmerlyn Valdez 55 C — · 55 0.403 90.6 14.4% 30.0%vs RHP 405 18.2% 28.6% 26.9% 29

2 Brandon Lowe 51 C — WARM 76 0.250 90.9 9.7% 25.8%vs RHP 392 17.1% 16.7% 16.9% 39

3 Endy Rodríguez 46 D — · 108 0.219 92.6 10.0% 25.0%vs RHP 393 17.6% 14.3% 24.4% 23

4 Bryan Reynolds 43 D — COOL 127 0.188 90.9 8.6% 15.4%vs RHP 412 13.3% 15.4% 12.4% 36

5 Tyler Callihan 42 D — COOL 135 0.250 84.8 8.7% 18.8%vs RHP 411 14.3% 14.3% 20.3% 15

6 Ryan O'Hearn 39 D — · 164 0.177 89.6 6.9% 21.3%vs RHP 382 15.5% 8.3% 11.3% 40

7 Konnor Griffin 35 D — · 201 0.132 87.8 7.8% 22.2%vs RHP 401 6.7% 14.3% 7.9% 24

8 Nick Gonzales 27 D — · 232 0.085 85.9 4.5% 9.1%vs RHP 399 5.0% 16.7% 7.4% 36

9 Jake Mangum 21 D — WARM 240 0.057 83.9 3.0% 6.2%vs RHP 410 2.2% 0.0% 6.7% 39

vs Bubba Chandler · RHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 63 C+ — COOL 16 0.251 95.4 12.6% 32.6%vs RHP 410 26.8% 23.1% 31.7% 32

2 Curtis Mead 53 C — COOL 65 0.238 87.9 8.7% 26.7%vs RHP 400 20.8% 27.3% 24.1% 35

3 Cj Abrams 45 D — COOL 113 0.227 90.0 8.3% 28.3%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 25.9% 26

4 Daylen Lile 40 D — · 156 0.169 87.6 7.1% 13.1%vs RHP 402 8.8% 9.1% 11.3% 37

5 Keibert Ruiz 39 D — WARM 165 0.178 89.4 6.2% 9.8%vs RHP 378 12.1% 0.0% 10.4% 22

6 Dylan Crews 39 D — COOL 166 0.135 90.9 7.7% 13.6%vs RHP 415 16.1% 0.0% 6.9% 35

7 Jose Tena 37 D — COOL 183 0.152 92.2 8.1% 19.1%vs RHP 407 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 18

8 Jorbit Vivas 33 D — WARM 220 0.102 83.3 5.4% 11.5%vs RHP 392 4.3% 16.7% 13.2% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.