TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ KC

Neutral air · 1.05×

PHI @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 3:00p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 4 mph out 68°F Roof open

Hourly window

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2:00p

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3:00p

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4:00p

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5:00p

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6:00p

the 2:00p window peaks -1

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 29 · vs Nola ⟷ Bryce Harper conv 32 · vs Avila → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Aaron Nola RHP · PHI

leak 94

2.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen +425 C ●●●●●

2 Jac Caglianone +330 C+ ●●●●○

3 Isaac Collins +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Luinder Avila RHP · KC

leak 40

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryce Harper +400 C+ ●●●●●

2 Brandon Marsh +575 C ●●●●●

3 Kyle Schwarber +225 B ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 34.4% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Avila Edge +400 0.254 · 90.5 · 9.2% 30.8% 33.4% F B O C+ 65

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Avila Edge +575 0.203 · 89.7 · 8.2% 38.5% 24.3% F B O C 57

· KC Carter Jensen vs Nola Edge +425 0.196 · 91.0 · 9.7% 33.3% 25.3% F B O C 59

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Avila Edge +225 0.321 · 93.3 · 11.6% 16.7% 34.4% F B O B 72

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Nola Edge +330 0.204 · 93.8 · 12.6% 18.2% 29.3% F B O C+ 62

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· PHI Trea Turner vs Avila +575 0.124 · 88.8 · 6.2% 23.1% 13.9% F B O D 44

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Avila +750 0.137 · 90.0 · 5.6% 16.7% 9.4% F B O D 43

· KC Isaac Collins vs Nola Edge +850 0.105 · 88.8 · 7.8% 10.0% 8.2% F B O D 42

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Avila Edge +700 0.146 · 89.0 · 6.8% 7.7% 8.3% F B O D 43

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Nola Edge +475 0.173 · 90.4 · 8.3% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 48

· KC Salvador Perez COOL vs Nola +400 0.144 · 88.8 · 9.5% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 45

· KC Lane Thomas COOL vs Nola +525 0.118 · 87.6 · 6.4% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 42

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Avila +700 0.114 · — · 5.8% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 35

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Avila Edge — 0.093 · 86.9 · 2.6% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.8% BRK 37.1% OFF 10.1% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

19.8% 16.9% 28.0% 20.0% B 72 +225

Neutral · 2

Bryce Harper L Edge

9.6% 18.1% 9.6% 12.4% C+ 65 +400

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.5% 16.4% 2.9% 10.0% C 57 +575

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

113

Trea Turner R

8.0% 3.4% 0.0% 5.8% D 44 +575

120

Bryson Stott L Edge

7.1% 5.6% 6.8% 6.6% D 43 +700

126

Alec Bohm R

4.6% 4.8% 3.4% 4.5% D 43 +750

188

J.T. Realmuto R

4.5% 4.8% 9.1% 4.9% D 35 +700

209

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% D 32 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Avila's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.5% ← leak BRK 33.8% OFF 12.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jac Caglianone L Edge

16.9% 16.9% 11.1% 15.8% C+ 62 +330

Carter Jensen L Edge

10.3% 8.0% 9.1% 9.3% C 59 +425

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Michael Massey L Edge

8.7% 5.6% 3.1% 7.0% D 48 +475

107

Salvador Perez R

13.6% 6.5% 9.1% 10.0% D 45 +400

133

Lane Thomas R

6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% D 42 +525

134

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.7% 8.7% 0.0% 6.0% D 42 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.5% usage) carries Nola's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Marsh Turner Bohm Caglianone Jensen

Legend

attack side — vs Nola fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Bryce Harper +400 · 65

Brandon Marsh +575 · 57

Carter Jensen +425 · 59

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 2:00p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 4 mph out 68°F open

-1

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4 mph · in

78°F

2:00p · peak

-2

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5 mph · in

80°F

3:00p

-1

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5 mph · in

82°F

4:00p

-1

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5 mph · in

83°F

5:00p

-1

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5 mph · in

84°F

6:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.05× 68°F, wind 4 mph W (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Luinder Avila · RHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 72 B +225 COOL 6 0.321 93.3 11.6% 46.5%vs RHP 404 25.9% 16.7% 34.4% 21

2 Bryce Harper 65 C+ +400 · 16 0.254 90.5 9.2% 42.5%vs RHP 400 21.4% 30.8% 33.4% 35

3 Brandon Marsh 57 C +575 WARM 44 0.203 89.7 8.2% 27.9%vs RHP 392 14.8% 38.5% 24.3% 34

4 Trea Turner 44 D +575 WARM 113 0.124 88.8 6.2% 17.6%vs RHP 393 12.0% 23.1% 13.9% 39

5 Bryson Stott 43 D +700 COOL 120 0.146 89.0 6.8% 10.5%vs RHP 393 8.9% 7.7% 8.3% 33

6 Alec Bohm 43 D +750 WARM 126 0.137 90.0 5.6% 18.2%vs RHP 389 12.3% 16.7% 9.4% 33

7 J.T. Realmuto 35 D +700 · 188 0.114 — 5.8% 17.2%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 25

8 Justin Crawford 32 D — COOL 209 0.093 86.9 2.6% 6.7%vs RHP 382 3.2% 0.0% 7.0% 30

vs Aaron Nola · RHP 2.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.27 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 62 C+ +330 WARM 22 0.204 93.8 12.6% 29.0%vs RHP 418 13.0% 18.2% 29.3% 26

2 Carter Jensen 59 C +425 WARM 33 0.196 91.0 9.7% 19.3%vs RHP 393 16.7% 33.3% 25.3% 32

3 Michael Massey 48 D +475 COOL 91 0.173 90.4 8.3% 11.1%vs RHP 398 7.4% 0.0% 11.8% 30

4 Salvador Perez 45 D +400 COOL 107 0.144 88.8 9.5% 16.3%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 26

5 Lane Thomas 42 D +525 COOL 133 0.118 87.6 6.4% 16.7%vs RHP 413 12.0% 0.0% 10.0% 28

6 Isaac Collins 42 D +850 · 134 0.105 88.8 7.8% 5.9%vs RHP 390 5.5% 10.0% 8.2% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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