TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ SEA

Suppressed air · 0.65×

TOR @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 5:00p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 4 mph out 55°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+4 ↑

2:00p

+4 ↑

3:00p

+4 ↑

4:00p

+4 ↑

5:00p

+4 ↑

6:00p

conditions hold steady across the window · +4 FIT

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 23 · vs Hancock ⟷ Dominic Canzone conv 28 · vs Yesavage → edge: Dominic Canzone

ATTACK Emerson Hancock RHP · SEA

leak 46

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto +370 C ●●●●○

2 Nathan Lukes +750 D ●●○○○

3 Daulton Varsho +475 D ●○○○○

FADE Trey Yesavage RHP · TOR

leak 18

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.56 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dominic Canzone +400 C ●●●●○

2 Cole Young +625 D ●●○○○

3 Randy Arozarena +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dominic Canzone: 15.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Dominic Canzone ✶ vs Yesavage Edge +400 0.275 · 93.1 · 9.2% 33.3% 22.3% F B O C 53

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Hancock +370 0.216 · 91.6 · 12.1% 25.0% 21.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· SEA Cole Young vs Yesavage Edge +625 0.144 · 88.2 · 5.5% 16.7% 10.9% F B O D 34

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Yesavage +500 0.160 · 91.4 · 6.5% 18.2% 8.8% F B O D 37

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Hancock Edge +750 0.113 · 86.4 · 3.7% 16.7% 9.4% F B O D 28

· SEA Colt Emerson HOT vs Yesavage Edge +700 0.224 · 86.6 · 5.9% 11.1% 14.3% F B O D 40

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Yesavage Edge +330 0.139 · 87.6 · 7.8% 16.7% 6.2% F B O D 36

· TOR Daulton Varsho vs Hancock Edge +475 0.158 · 86.1 · 8.1% 9.1% 8.4% F B O D 36

· SEA Luke Raley COOL vs Yesavage Edge +400 0.237 · 90.7 · 9.6% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 46

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Hancock Edge — 0.179 · 88.9 · 9.0% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 39

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Yesavage Edge +750 0.145 · — · 6.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 28

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Hancock Edge +850 0.137 · 86.4 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 28

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Yesavage Edge +500 0.109 · 87.6 · 5.2% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 28

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Hancock +850 0.136 · 85.5 · 4.8% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 73.3% ← leak BRK 21.1% OFF 5.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

16.9% 8.5% 17.6% 14.6% C 52 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

154

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

3.0% 21.1% 13.6% 8.3% D 39 —

185

Daulton Varsho L Edge

9.1% 1.6% 7.4% 6.6% D 36 +475

214

Ernie Clement R

2.3% 2.2% 2.7% 2.3% D 29 +850

217

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.3% 2.9% 6.5% 3.6% D 28 +850

218

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.7% 3.6% 1.3% D 28 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (73.3% usage) carries Hancock's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.9% ← leak OFF 30.2% BRK 23.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dominic Canzone L Edge

18.0% 8.7% 20.0% 15.8% C 53 +400

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

100

Luke Raley L Edge

21.0% 7.4% 13.8% 16.8% D 46 +400

147

Colt Emerson L Edge

7.3% 6.7% 4.5% 6.4% D 40 +700

176

Randy Arozarena R

9.4% 5.4% 6.9% 8.0% D 37 +500

187

Cal Raleigh S Edge

12.0% 12.1% 8.8% 11.3% D 36 +330

199

Cole Young L Edge

6.1% 0.0% 11.5% 6.3% D 34 +625

215

J.P. Crawford L Edge

5.5% 13.0% 8.9% 7.2% D 28 +750

220

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.6% 2.3% 8.5% 5.0% D 28 +500

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.9% usage) carries Yesavage's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Lukes Canzone Arozarena Young

Legend

attack side — vs Hancock fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Dominic Canzone +400 · 53

Kazuma Okamoto +370 · 52

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 2:00p · roof retractable

Park 0.82× Wind 4 mph out 55°F retractable

↑

9 mph · out

74°F

2:00p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

73°F

3:00p

↑

9 mph · out

73°F

4:00p

↑

9 mph · out

73°F

5:00p

↑

9 mph · out

72°F

6:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.65× 55°F, wind 4 mph NNE (out) — modifier: -2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Emerson Hancock · RHP 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 52 C +370 COOL 70 0.216 91.6 12.1% 31.8%vs RHP 400 18.8% 25.0% 21.2% 26

2 Brandon Valenzuela 39 D — COOL 154 0.179 88.9 9.0% 22.7%vs RHP 397 11.1% 0.0% 13.2% 6

3 Daulton Varsho 36 D +475 · 185 0.158 86.1 8.1% 14.3%vs RHP 386 8.5% 9.1% 8.4% 25

4 Ernie Clement 29 D +850 COOL 214 0.136 85.5 4.8% 7.3%vs RHP 374 8.5% 0.0% 5.8% 32

5 Andres Gimenez 28 D +850 COOL 217 0.137 86.4 6.0% 12.5%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 24

6 Nathan Lukes 28 D +750 WARM 218 0.113 86.4 3.7% 16.7%vs RHP 378 5.9% 16.7% 9.4% 31

vs Trey Yesavage · RHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.56 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone ✶ 53 C +400 · 67 0.275 93.1 9.2% 29.3%vs RHP 398 17.6% 33.3% 22.3% 17

2 Luke Raley 46 D +400 COOL 100 0.237 90.7 9.6% 35.0%vs RHP 385 15.9% 0.0% 13.5% 12

3 Colt Emerson 40 D +700 HOT 147 0.224 86.6 5.9% 41.7%vs RHP 369 16.7% 11.1% 14.3% 19

4 Randy Arozarena 37 D +500 COOL 176 0.160 91.4 6.5% 20.6%vs RHP 390 10.3% 18.2% 8.8% 24

5 Cal Raleigh 36 D +330 · 187 0.139 87.6 7.8% 13.2%vs RHP 391 13.6% 16.7% 6.2% 22

6 Cole Young 34 D +625 · 199 0.144 88.2 5.5% 13.7%vs RHP 390 9.4% 16.7% 10.9% 32

7 J.P. Crawford 28 D +750 COOL 215 0.145 — 6.3% 26.5%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 34

8 Josh Naylor 28 D +500 · 220 0.109 87.6 5.2% 14.3%vs RHP 390 8.7% 0.0% 5.9% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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