TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.23×

SD @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 7:20p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.23× Wind 2 mph out 66°F Roof open

Hourly window

+17 ↑

4:20p

+17 ↑

5:20p

+16 ↑

6:20p

+15 ↑

7:20p

+14 ↑

8:20p

best window is early — 4:20p at +17

Best of game Mookie Betts conv 22 · vs Sears ⟷ Manny Machado conv 32 · vs Sheehan → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK JP Sears LHP · SD

leak 93

3.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.48 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mookie Betts +425 C+ ●●●○○

2 Freddie Freeman +400 C+ ●●●○○

3 Shohei Ohtani +245 B ●●●○○

FADE Emmet Sheehan RHP · LAD

leak 89

1.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.82 · stingy — thin edge

1 Manny Machado +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Ty France +525 C+ ●●●●○

3 Gavin Sheets +475 C+ ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: Match 25.0% · 14D pace 15.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado vs Sheehan +320 0.210 · 90.0 · 10.6% 30.8% 34.0% F B O C+ 66

· SD Ty France vs Sheehan +525 0.216 · 91.3 · 10.9% 16.7% 35.2% F B O C+ 63

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Sheehan Edge +475 0.233 · 89.4 · 9.6% 10.0% 41.2% F B O C+ 62

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Sears Edge +425 0.191 · 90.5 · 10.6% 23.1% 20.0% F B O C+ 62

· LAD Freddie Freeman vs Sears +400 0.201 · 90.7 · 12.8% 23.1% 18.4% F B O C+ 67

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ COOL vs Sears +245 0.236 · 93.6 · 14.9% 15.4% 25.0% F B O B 73

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Sears Edge +225 0.241 · 90.0 · 14.0% 12.5% 23.0% F B O B 71

· SD Jackson Merrill COOL vs Sheehan Edge +475 0.145 · 89.9 · 10.4% 15.4% 16.2% F B O C 55

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Sears Edge +370 0.184 · 90.3 · 12.2% 0.0% 27.3% F B O C 58

· LAD Andy Pages vs Sears Edge +320 0.202 · 89.2 · 11.1% 7.7% 16.5% F B O C+ 62

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Sears +525 0.134 · 89.0 · 8.8% 9.1% 9.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 3 long shots

· SD Miguel Andujar vs Sheehan +625 0.150 · 88.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 45

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Sheehan +525 0.109 · 88.0 · 8.0% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 45

· LAD Alex Freeland COOL vs Sears Edge — 0.101 · 88.8 · 8.8% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 47

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 43.4% ← leak BRK 41.3% OFF 15.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Manny Machado R

12.9% 7.4% 5.9% 10.4% C+ 66 +320

Ty France R

11.4% 10.4% 8.7% 10.6% C+ 63 +525

Gavin Sheets L Edge

11.1% 5.3% 5.9% 9.0% C+ 62 +475

Jackson Merrill L Edge

10.1% 9.2% 8.7% 9.5% C 55 +475

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

103

Miguel Andujar R

3.8% 5.5% 4.2% 4.3% D 45 +625

106

Xander Bogaerts R

7.6% 3.7% 4.8% 6.5% D 45 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.4% usage) carries Sheehan's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 39.2% OFF 25.0% BRK 24.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 2

Shohei Ohtani L

20.7% 14.3% 10.0% 16.3% B 73 +245

Max Muncy S Edge

19.2% 7.7% 14.3% 15.0% B 71 +225

Neutral · 5

Freddie Freeman L

11.4% 12.2% 11.1% 11.4% C+ 67 +400

Mookie Betts R Edge

10.5% 7.7% 4.1% 8.5% C+ 62 +425

Andy Pages R Edge

8.6% 6.9% 9.3% 8.7% C+ 62 +320

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

11.4% 9.5% 13.3% 11.5% C 58 +370

Kyle Tucker L

7.2% 2.0% 4.3% 5.5% C 51 +525

Long shots · 1 — below the fade line

Alex Freeland S Edge

6.6% 3.8% 10.7% 6.9% D 47 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Sears's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Machado France Sheets Merrill Ohtani Muncy Freeman Betts Hernandez

Legend

attack side — vs Sears fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Manny Machado +320 · 66

Mookie Betts +425 · 62

Freddie Freeman +400 · 67

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 4:20p · roof open

Park 1.23× Wind 2 mph out 66°F open

+17

↑

9 mph · out

84°F

4:20p · peak

+17

↑

9 mph · out

83°F

5:20p

+16

↑

8 mph · out

79°F

6:20p

+15

↑

8 mph · out

76°F

7:20p

+14

↑

7 mph · out

73°F

8:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.23× 66°F, wind 3 mph S (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Emmet Sheehan · RHP 1.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.82 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado 66 C+ +320 WARM 14 0.210 90.0 10.6% 29.5%vs RHP 396 19.5% 30.8% 34.0% 30

2 Ty France 63 C+ +525 · 17 0.216 91.3 10.9% 34.8%vs RHP 393 15.6% 16.7% 35.2% 25

3 Gavin Sheets 62 C+ +475 · 21 0.233 89.4 9.6% 35.7%vs RHP 397 13.3% 10.0% 41.2% 25

4 Jackson Merrill 55 C +475 COOL 58 0.145 89.9 10.4% 15.7%vs RHP 406 12.3% 15.4% 16.2% 32

5 Miguel Andujar 45 D +625 WARM 103 0.150 88.3 6.9% 16.7%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 21

6 Xander Bogaerts 45 D +525 COOL 106 0.109 88.0 8.0% 17.9%vs RHP 395 8.8% 0.0% 11.1% 32

vs JP Sears · LHP 3.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.48 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 73 B +245 COOL 5 0.236 93.6 14.9% 27.3%vs LHP 406 17.9% 15.4% 25.0% 37

2 Max Muncy 71 B +225 COOL 8 0.241 90.0 14.0% 30.0%vs LHP 409 18.9% 12.5% 23.0% 55

3 Freddie Freeman 67 C+ +400 · 12 0.201 90.7 12.8% 15.0%vs LHP 398 15.3% 23.1% 18.4% 37

4 Mookie Betts 62 C+ +425 WARM 24 0.191 90.5 10.6% 8.0%vs LHP 385 12.8% 23.1% 20.0% 42

5 Andy Pages 62 C+ +320 · 26 0.202 89.2 11.1% 16.0%vs LHP 389 15.1% 7.7% 16.5% 36

6 Teoscar Hernandez 58 C +370 WARM 38 0.184 90.3 12.2% 22.2%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 27.3% 11

7 Kyle Tucker 51 C +525 WARM 80 0.134 89.0 8.8% 5.6%vs LHP 399 6.0% 9.1% 9.7% 25

8 Alex Freeland 47 D — COOL 99 0.101 88.8 8.8% 12.5%vs LHP 373 3.1% 0.0% 10.2% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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