TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.20×

MIN @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 1:35p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.20× Wind 4 mph in 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

1:35p

+13 ↑

2:35p

+14 ↑

3:35p

+14 ↑

4:35p

+15 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 5:35p window peaks +15

Best of game Kody Clemens conv 40 · vs Weathers ⟷ Trent Grisham conv 34 · vs Ryan → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Ryan Weathers LHP · NYY

leak 97

1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kody Clemens — B ●●●●●

2 Josh Bell +400 C ●●●●○

3 Byron Buxton +205 B ●●●○○

FADE Joe Ryan RHP · MIN

leak 89

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trent Grisham +320 C ●●●●●

2 Ben Rice +220 B ●●●●●

3 Paul Goldschmidt +500 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: 12.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 45.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Weathers — 0.251 · 92.7 · 12.3% 45.5% 34.6% F B O B 72

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Ryan Edge +320 0.180 · 90.8 · 11.7% 50.0% 17.8% F B O C 55

· NYY Ben Rice COOL vs Ryan Edge +220 0.300 · 91.7 · 12.9% 25.0% 40.2% F B O B 73

· MIN Josh Bell vs Weathers Edge +400 0.163 · 89.6 · 11.0% 30.0% 17.1% F B O C 57

· MIN Byron Buxton vs Weathers Edge +205 0.317 · 90.6 · 14.6% 12.5% 24.7% F B O B 75

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Ryan +500 0.240 · 86.7 · 11.8% 11.1% 25.7% F B O C+ 61

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Weathers Edge +575 0.189 · 87.8 · 7.0% 16.7% 19.4% F B O C 54

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Weathers Edge +350 0.162 · 89.1 · 11.9% 8.3% 14.2% F B O C 56

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Ryan Edge +400 0.153 · 90.8 · 11.3% 0.0% 16.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Weathers Edge +850 0.092 · 84.5 · 5.9% 20.0% 9.6% F B O D 41

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Weathers — 0.148 · 86.9 · 9.1% 9.1% 11.3% F B O D 49

· MIN Victor Caratini vs Weathers Edge +500 0.142 · 89.3 · 9.5% 0.0% 19.1% F B O D 47

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Ryan Edge +350 0.171 · 88.9 · 9.1% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 49

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Ryan Edge +390 0.084 · 89.0 · 8.2% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 41

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Weathers Edge — 0.075 · 86.7 · 5.2% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 37

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Ryan +850 0.133 · 83.9 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.9% ← leak BRK 29.6% OFF 23.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 2

Byron Buxton R Edge

21.9% 16.1% 14.8% 19.5% B 75 +205

Kody Clemens L

10.6% 17.6% 13.2% 12.7% B 72 —

Neutral · 3

Josh Bell S Edge

10.0% 14.5% 6.9% 10.3% C 57 +400

Royce Lewis R Edge

14.0% 10.9% 5.9% 12.1% C 56 +350

Brooks Lee S Edge

8.4% 1.3% 1.4% 4.5% C 54 +575

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Trevor Larnach L

9.2% 7.1% 3.4% 7.9% D 49 —

Victor Caratini S Edge

7.4% 13.0% 7.4% 8.2% D 47 +500

144

Luke Keaschall R Edge

3.5% 4.2% 0.0% 3.3% D 41 +850

169

Austin Martin R Edge

3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.9% usage) carries Weathers's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.3% ← leak BRK 33.1% OFF 10.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

16.0% 10.0% 15.6% 14.1% B 73 +220

Neutral · 3

Paul Goldschmidt R

15.3% 6.4% 10.7% 12.1% C+ 61 +500

Trent Grisham L Edge

12.7% 12.5% 7.1% 11.8% C 55 +320

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

12.8% 5.6% 23.5% 12.2% C 51 +400

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Cody Bellinger L Edge

3.7% 14.0% 10.2% 7.1% D 49 +350

142

Austin Wells L Edge

8.9% 3.8% 0.0% 6.7% D 41 +390

159

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 38 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.3% usage) carries Ryan's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Buxton Clemens Bell Lee Keaschall Rice Goldschmidt Grisham

Legend

attack side — vs Weathers fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kody Clemens — · 72

Ben Rice +220 · 73

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.20× Wind 4 mph in 73°F open

+12

↑

8 mph · slight_out

78°F

1:35p

+13

↑

8 mph · out

79°F

2:35p

+14

↑

8 mph · out

80°F

3:35p

+14

↑

8 mph · out

81°F

4:35p

+15

↑

8 mph · out

80°F

5:35p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 73°F, wind 4 mph NW (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Weathers · LHP 1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.06 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton 75 B +205 · 3 0.317 90.6 14.6% 28.6%vs LHP 402 31.9% 12.5% 24.7% 26

2 Kody Clemens ✶ 72 B — WARM 7 0.251 92.7 12.3% 21.4%vs LHP 390 21.7% 45.5% 34.6% 30

3 Josh Bell 57 C +400 WARM 49 0.163 89.6 11.0% 8.3%vs LHP 407 12.5% 30.0% 17.1% 30

4 Royce Lewis 56 C +350 · 52 0.162 89.1 11.9% 16.7%vs LHP 394 16.7% 8.3% 14.2% 30

5 Brooks Lee 54 C +575 WARM 61 0.189 87.8 7.0% 15.4%vs LHP 367 16.2% 16.7% 19.4% 34

6 Trevor Larnach 49 D — · 87 0.148 86.9 9.1% 14.3%vs LHP 406 6.9% 9.1% 11.3% 31

7 Victor Caratini 47 D +500 WARM 94 0.142 89.3 9.5% 15.4%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 26

8 Luke Keaschall 41 D +850 WARM 144 0.092 84.5 5.9% 4.8%vs LHP 370 5.4% 20.0% 9.6% 22

9 Austin Martin 37 D — COOL 169 0.075 86.7 5.2% 4.5%vs LHP 392 2.0% 0.0% 9.6% 16

vs Joe Ryan · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 73 B +220 COOL 4 0.300 91.7 12.9% 34.5%vs RHP 389 25.3% 25.0% 40.2% 31

2 Paul Goldschmidt 61 C+ +500 COOL 28 0.240 86.7 11.8% 22.2%vs RHP 391 18.4% 11.1% 25.7% 26

3 Trent Grisham 55 C +320 WARM 53 0.180 90.8 11.7% 15.6%vs RHP 388 9.7% 50.0% 17.8% 3

4 Ryan Mcmahon 51 C +400 WARM 75 0.153 90.8 11.3% 23.5%vs RHP 380 50.0% 0.0% 16.7% 3

5 Cody Bellinger 49 D +350 COOL 85 0.171 88.9 9.1% 11.5%vs RHP 379 11.2% 0.0% 12.8% 28

6 Austin Wells 41 D +390 COOL 142 0.084 89.0 8.2% 10.7%vs RHP 377 7.1% 0.0% 9.7% 19

7 Jose Caballero 38 D +850 · 159 0.133 83.9 6.0% 14.8%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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