TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.25×

MIA @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 4:30p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.25× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Nick Kurtz conv 29 · vs Pérez ⟷ Owen Caissie conv 27 · vs Jump → edge: Nick Kurtz

ATTACK Eury Pérez RHP · MIA

leak 58

1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.48 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nick Kurtz +192 B ●●●●○

2 Shea Langeliers — C+ ●●●○○

3 Zack Gelof +370 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Gage Jump LHP · ATH

leak 49

0.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.73 · stingy — thin edge

1 Owen Caissie +500 C ●●●●○

2 Kyle Stowers +350 C ●●●●○

3 Otto Lopez +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Nick Kurtz: 18.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Nick Kurtz ✶ vs Pérez Edge +192 0.237 · 94.5 · 16.1% 18.2% 39.9% F B O B 75

· MIA Owen Caissie vs Jump +500 0.206 · 91.6 · 7.6% 25.0% 28.6% F B O C 56

· MIA Kyle Stowers HOT vs Jump +350 0.216 · 91.4 · 6.6% 23.1% 27.8% F B O C 54

· ATH Shea Langeliers vs Pérez — 0.236 · 91.4 · 14.1% 9.1% 24.2% F B O C+ 69

· ATH Zack Gelof vs Pérez +370 0.216 · 89.3 · 9.9% 0.0% 29.6% F B O C+ 61

· ATH Carlos Cortes vs Pérez Edge +475 0.150 · 89.9 · 10.4% 0.0% 14.1% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Jump Edge +500 0.153 · 89.5 · 5.1% 23.1% 9.4% F B O D 44

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Jump Edge +750 0.132 · 87.5 · 2.5% 11.1% 9.3% F B O D 37

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Jump Edge +330 0.187 · 92.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 19.7% F B O D 44

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Jump +525 0.103 · 86.6 · 3.6% 7.7% 9.3% F B O D 36

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Jump +850 0.174 · 85.6 · 3.9% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 43

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Pérez Edge +390 0.111 · 89.0 · 9.5% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 47

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Jump Edge — 0.128 · 86.9 · 4.1% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 37

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Pérez Edge +625 0.077 · 86.4 · 3.5% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.2% BRK 43.5% OFF 7.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Owen Caissie L

17.5% 7.7% 21.4% 15.4% C 56 +500

Kyle Stowers L

14.3% 12.5% 3.3% 11.8% C 54 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

109

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

10.0% 6.7% 9.1% 8.8% D 44 +330

116

Otto Lopez R Edge

9.6% 4.7% 2.3% 6.9% D 44 +500

118

Liam Hicks L

4.0% 3.8% 4.3% 4.0% D 43 +850

168

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.7% 3.2% 1.9% 4.5% D 37 —

171

Javier Sanoja R Edge

1.0% 3.3% 0.0% 1.6% D 37 +750

183

Jakob Marsee L

3.3% 0.0% 8.3% 3.5% D 36 +525

Read the columns: no single family leads Jump's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.9% ← leak BRK 36.0% OFF 10.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Nick Kurtz L Edge

17.8% 21.8% 16.7% 18.7% B 75 +192

Neutral · 3

Shea Langeliers R

16.8% 16.1% 5.0% 14.7% C+ 69 —

Zack Gelof R

6.7% 3.9% 20.0% 7.1% C+ 61 +370

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.9% 5.1% 10.0% 7.7% C 51 +475

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.9% 10.7% 5.1% 7.1% D 47 +390

184

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.0% 2.2% 1.9% 0.9% D 36 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.9% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caissie Stowers Lopez Kurtz Langeliers Gelof

Legend

attack side — vs Pérez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Owen Caissie +500 · 56

Kyle Stowers +350 · 54

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 4:30p · roof unknown

Park 1.25× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.25× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gage Jump · LHP 0.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.73 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 56 C +500 WARM 51 0.206 91.6 7.6% 23.9% 396 14.8% 25.0% 28.6% 19

2 Kyle Stowers 54 C +350 HOT 63 0.216 91.4 6.6% 17.5% 396 11.3% 23.1% 27.8% 30

3 Heriberto Hernández 44 D +330 · 109 0.187 92.0 5.8% 25.0%vs LHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 28

4 Otto Lopez 44 D +500 COOL 116 0.153 89.5 5.1% 11.1%vs LHP 403 8.0% 23.1% 9.4% 42

5 Liam Hicks 43 D +850 COOL 118 0.174 85.6 3.9% 11.1%vs LHP 376 16.7% 0.0% 12.1% 17

6 Xavier Edwards 37 D — COOL 168 0.128 86.9 4.1% 26.7%vs LHP 396 5.8% 0.0% 9.7% 41

7 Javier Sanoja 37 D +750 WARM 171 0.132 87.5 2.5% 22.2%vs LHP 385 5.7% 11.1% 9.3% 29

8 Jakob Marsee 36 D +525 COOL 183 0.103 86.6 3.6% 12.5%vs LHP 379 7.1% 7.7% 9.3% 34

vs Eury Pérez · RHP 1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.48 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nick Kurtz ✶ 75 B +192 WARM 2 0.237 94.5 16.1% 43.8%vs RHP 412 21.7% 18.2% 39.9% 23

2 Shea Langeliers 69 C+ — · 10 0.236 91.4 14.1% 20.7%vs RHP 417 20.0% 9.1% 24.2% 24

3 Zack Gelof 61 C+ +370 WARM 27 0.216 89.3 9.9% 26.7%vs RHP 392 21.9% 0.0% 29.6% 6

4 Carlos Cortes 51 C +475 WARM 78 0.150 89.9 10.4% 15.8%vs RHP 404 4.8% 0.0% 14.1% 6

5 Lawrence Butler 47 D +390 WARM 97 0.111 89.0 9.5% 24.0%vs RHP 402 4.1% 0.0% 10.9% 18

6 Jeff Mcneil 36 D +625 WARM 184 0.077 86.4 3.5% 7.9%vs RHP 373 4.3% 0.0% 8.8% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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