TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.10×

MIL @ AZ

Chase Field · 4:00p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 5 mph cross 87°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+3 ↑

1:00p

+4 ↑

2:00p

+4 ↑

3:00p

+4 ↑

4:00p

+4 ↑

5:00p

the 2:00p window peaks +4

Best of game Ketel Marte conv 30 · vs Sproat ⟷ Jackson Chourio conv 22 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Ketel Marte

ATTACK Brandon Sproat RHP · MIL

leak 84

1.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ketel Marte +330 C ●●●●●

2 Nolan Arenado +850 D ●○○○○

3 Adrian Del Castillo — D ●○○○○

FADE Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · AZ

leak 4

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.35 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Chourio +400 C ●●●○○

2 Garrett Mitchell +575 C ●●●○○

3 William Contreras +475 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ketel Marte: Match 21.8% · 14D pace 38.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Ketel Marte ✶ vs Sproat Edge +330 0.216 · 91.4 · 9.9% 38.5% 21.8% F B O C 56

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +400 0.229 · 92.2 · 10.9% 23.1% 21.9% F B O C 55

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Rodriguez +575 0.194 · 92.9 · 11.1% 27.3% 17.3% F B O C 50

· MIL Jake Bauers vs Rodriguez +475 0.259 · 92.6 · 10.5% 15.4% 17.0% F B O C 55

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs Sproat Edge +400 0.238 · 91.6 · 10.2% 0.0% 15.6% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· MIL William Contreras vs Rodriguez Edge +475 0.145 · 90.4 · 7.9% 25.0% 12.3% F B O D 42

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Sproat +850 0.161 · 85.3 · 7.5% 7.7% 11.5% F B O D 41

· AZ Adrian Del Castillo vs Sproat Edge — 0.109 · 89.4 · 7.2% 11.1% 7.7% F B O D 38

· MIL Brice Turang vs Rodriguez +950 0.190 · 90.9 · 8.5% 7.7% 8.4% F B O D 44

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Rodriguez — 0.125 · 88.9 · 7.8% 8.3% 7.6% F B O D 37

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Sproat Edge +850 0.111 · 87.1 · 5.2% 7.7% 7.1% F B O D 33

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Sproat +850 0.177 · 89.9 · 8.5% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 43

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Sproat Edge — 0.154 · 86.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 37

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.094 · 86.2 · 4.3% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 27

· MIL David Hamilton vs Rodriguez — 0.102 · 86.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.4% ← leak OFF 27.3% BRK 12.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Jake Bauers L

14.3% 14.3% 12.5% 13.8% C 55 +475

Jackson Chourio R Edge

14.9% 4.8% 15.8% 14.0% C 55 +400

Garrett Mitchell L

15.1% 5.9% 14.3% 13.8% C 50 +575

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

115

Brice Turang L

9.5% 2.6% 10.1% 8.6% D 44 +950

130

William Contreras R Edge

9.9% 0.0% 7.5% 8.5% D 42 +475

178

Christian Yelich L

4.3% 14.3% 9.8% 6.8% D 37 —

211

David Hamilton L

4.6% 0.0% 5.6% 4.3% D 30 —

221

Sal Frelick L

1.2% 0.0% 5.7% 2.1% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.4% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 71.0% BRK 21.4% OFF 7.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ketel Marte S Edge

15.4% 8.2% 4.8% 11.3% C 56 +330

Corbin Carroll L Edge

12.1% 14.9% 6.7% 11.9% C 53 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

121

Gabriel Moreno R

8.4% 10.0% 12.5% 9.5% D 43 +850

140

Nolan Arenado R

10.1% 1.4% 0.0% 6.2% D 41 +850

163

Adrian Del Castillo L Edge

9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% D 38 —

175

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

5.3% 1.8% 2.0% 3.8% D 37 —

205

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.6% 0.0% 1.6% 3.1% D 33 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Sproat's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Mitchell Contreras Marte

Legend

attack side — vs Sproat fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Ketel Marte +330 · 56

Jackson Chourio +400 · 55

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 1:00p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 5 mph cross 87°F retractable

↑

6 mph · slight_out

95°F

1:00p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

97°F

2:00p · peak

↑

7 mph · slight_out

98°F

3:00p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

99°F

4:00p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

99°F

5:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 87°F, wind 5 mph WSW (cross) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eduardo Rodriguez · LHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.35 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 55 C +475 · 57 0.259 92.6 10.5% 13.3%vs LHP 403 19.0% 15.4% 17.0% 27

2 Jackson Chourio 55 C +400 COOL 59 0.229 92.2 10.9% 66.7%vs LHP 398 20.8% 23.1% 21.9% 36

3 Garrett Mitchell 50 C +575 · 83 0.194 92.9 11.1% 24.2% 415 10.8% 27.3% 17.3% 25

4 Brice Turang 44 D +950 · 115 0.190 90.9 8.5% 10.0%vs LHP 407 10.7% 7.7% 8.4% 39

5 William Contreras 42 D +475 WARM 130 0.145 90.4 7.9% 9.5%vs LHP 419 11.2% 25.0% 12.3% 36

6 Christian Yelich 37 D — WARM 178 0.125 88.9 7.8% 33.3%vs LHP 399 7.8% 8.3% 7.6% 22

7 David Hamilton 30 D — WARM 211 0.102 86.7 5.8% 5.9% 383 4.7% 0.0% 5.4% 16

8 Sal Frelick 27 D — COOL 221 0.094 86.2 4.3% 11.1%vs LHP 402 2.8% 0.0% 5.9% 31

vs Brandon Sproat · RHP 1.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.01 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ketel Marte ✶ 56 C +330 WARM 50 0.216 91.4 9.9% 16.1%vs RHP 413 17.1% 38.5% 21.8% 43

2 Corbin Carroll 53 C +400 COOL 66 0.238 91.6 10.2% 23.8%vs RHP 406 14.7% 0.0% 15.6% 28

3 Gabriel Moreno 43 D +850 COOL 121 0.177 89.9 8.5% 16.7%vs RHP 395 9.3% 0.0% 12.6% 31

4 Nolan Arenado 41 D +850 WARM 140 0.161 85.3 7.5% 16.7%vs RHP 400 9.9% 7.7% 11.5% 32

5 Adrian Del Castillo 38 D — WARM 163 0.109 89.4 7.2% 14.8%vs RHP 396 8.9% 11.1% 7.7% 13

6 Ildemaro Vargas 37 D — WARM 175 0.154 86.8 5.9% 10.7%vs RHP 399 6.3% 0.0% 8.5% 16

7 Geraldo Perdomo 33 D +850 WARM 205 0.111 87.1 5.2% 9.1%vs RHP 388 5.5% 7.7% 7.1% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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