TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ CHC

Playable air · 1.09×

STL @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:30p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.09× Wind 4 mph out 66°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

1:30p

+9 ↑

2:30p

+8 ↑

3:30p

+8 ↑

4:30p

+8 ↑

5:30p

best window is early — 1:30p at +9

Best of game Dansby Swanson conv 32 · vs Liberatore ⟷ Nathan Church conv 25 · vs Assad → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Matthew Liberatore LHP · STL

leak 99

1.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.87 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dansby Swanson +750 C+ ●●●●●

2 Pete Crow-Armstrong +425 C+ ●●●●●

3 Michael Busch +575 C ●●●●○

FADE Javier Assad RHP · CHC

leak 58

1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nathan Church +950 C ●●●●○

2 Masyn Winn +950 D ●●○○○

3 Jordan Walker +425 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 37.5% · 14D pace 21.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Dansby Swanson HOT vs Liberatore Edge +750 0.210 · 89.9 · 9.3% 35.7% 28.0% F B O C+ 62

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ COOL vs Liberatore +425 0.234 · 90.8 · 10.6% 21.4% 37.5% F B O C+ 67

· CHC Michael Busch vs Liberatore +575 0.164 · 88.2 · 10.7% 28.6% 22.4% F B O C 58

· STL Nathan Church vs Assad Edge +950 0.166 · 86.4 · 8.6% 27.3% 23.6% F B O C 54

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Liberatore Edge +500 0.190 · 89.4 · 9.5% 21.4% 26.3% F B O C 58

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Assad +425 0.233 · 93.8 · 10.6% 8.3% 18.3% F B O C+ 62

· STL Alec Burleson vs Assad Edge +425 0.195 · 91.7 · 9.4% 10.0% 16.4% F B O C 57

· CHC Ian Happ vs Liberatore Edge +575 0.231 · 89.8 · 11.8% 7.1% 16.6% F B O C+ 63

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· STL Masyn Winn vs Assad +950 0.093 · 87.4 · 5.0% 16.7% 10.4% F B O D 40

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Liberatore Edge +700 0.132 · 87.7 · 6.9% 7.7% 9.0% F B O D 44

· STL Pedro Pages COOL vs Assad — 0.129 · 86.5 · 6.8% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 42

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Assad Edge +700 0.136 · 90.0 · 7.5% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 45

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Assad +575 0.155 · 89.6 · 7.2% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 44

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Liberatore Edge +750 0.111 · 88.5 · 7.9% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 43

· CHC Nico Hoerner COOL vs Liberatore Edge +950 0.098 · 85.6 · 3.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 73.9% ← leak BRK 19.1% OFF 6.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Jordan Walker R

13.5% 12.7% 19.2% 13.9% C+ 62 +425

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.2% 13.3% 8.2% 11.2% C 57 +425

Nathan Church L Edge

9.6% 7.4% 7.7% 8.4% C 54 +950

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

104

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

10.8% 4.3% 2.7% 8.0% D 45 +700

110

Ivan Herrera R

6.4% 7.6% 9.4% 7.1% D 44 +575

129

Pedro Pages R

9.1% 2.6% 0.0% 5.6% D 42 —

149

Masyn Winn R

3.2% 2.5% 4.0% 3.0% D 40 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (73.9% usage) carries Assad's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.4% BRK 39.0% OFF 15.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Pete Crow-Armstrong L

8.9% 13.6% 10.2% 10.5% C+ 67 +425

Ian Happ S Edge

16.8% 21.3% 3.8% 14.5% C+ 63 +575

Dansby Swanson R Edge

9.1% 4.6% 14.8% 8.5% C+ 62 +750

Seiya Suzuki R Edge

10.0% 7.6% 0.0% 8.5% C 58 +500

Michael Busch L

13.2% 8.3% 3.6% 11.1% C 58 +575

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

114

Alex Bregman R Edge

4.9% 7.1% 6.9% 5.7% D 44 +700

119

Carson Kelly R Edge

7.7% 4.0% 6.7% 6.5% D 43 +750

191

Nico Hoerner R Edge

1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 35 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Liberatore's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Burleson Church Winn Crow-Armstrong Swanson Suzuki Busch

Legend

attack side — vs Liberatore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Dansby Swanson +750 · 62

Pete Crow-Armstrong +425 · 67

Michael Busch +575 · 58

Nathan Church +950 · 54

Seiya Suzuki +500 · 58

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:30p · roof open

Park 1.09× Wind 4 mph out 66°F open

↑

10 mph · slight_out

69°F

1:30p · peak

↑

10 mph · slight_out

70°F

2:30p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

70°F

3:30p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

71°F

4:30p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

71°F

5:30p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.09× 66°F, wind 4 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Javier Assad · RHP 1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.70 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 62 C+ +425 COOL 25 0.233 93.8 10.6% 31.1%vs RHP 407 17.6% 8.3% 18.3% 22

2 Alec Burleson 57 C +425 · 45 0.195 91.7 9.4% 23.2%vs RHP 404 17.1% 10.0% 16.4% 34

3 Nathan Church 54 C +950 WARM 60 0.166 86.4 8.6% 23.1%vs RHP 388 10.9% 27.3% 23.6% 30

4 Jj Wetherholt 45 D +700 COOL 104 0.136 90.0 7.5% 17.9%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 40

5 Ivan Herrera 44 D +575 COOL 110 0.155 89.6 7.2% 17.6%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 32

6 Pedro Pages 42 D — COOL 129 0.129 86.5 6.8% 20.0%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 6

7 Masyn Winn 40 D +950 · 149 0.093 87.4 5.0% 13.8%vs RHP 390 4.9% 16.7% 10.4% 33

vs Matthew Liberatore · LHP 1.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.87 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 67 C+ +425 COOL 11 0.234 90.8 10.6% 26.3%vs LHP 392 20.2% 21.4% 37.5% 25

2 Ian Happ 63 C+ +575 · 19 0.231 89.8 11.8% 16.0%vs LHP 402 20.5% 7.1% 16.6% 21

3 Dansby Swanson 62 C+ +750 HOT 23 0.210 89.9 9.3% 23.8%vs LHP 403 14.9% 35.7% 28.0% 34

4 Seiya Suzuki 58 C +500 · 39 0.190 89.4 9.5% 27.3%vs LHP 407 13.2% 21.4% 26.3% 31

5 Michael Busch 58 C +575 · 41 0.164 88.2 10.7% 13.0%vs LHP 403 13.3% 28.6% 22.4% 29

6 Alex Bregman 44 D +700 · 114 0.132 87.7 6.9% 12.5%vs LHP 398 6.9% 7.7% 9.0% 33

7 Carson Kelly 43 D +750 COOL 119 0.111 88.5 7.9% 15.0%vs LHP 421 5.3% 0.0% 9.3% 21

8 Nico Hoerner 35 D +950 COOL 191 0.098 85.6 3.0% 10.0%vs LHP 383 4.5% 0.0% 8.6% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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