TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ LAA

Neutral air · 1.00×

BOS @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:30p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 3 mph slight_out 66°F Roof open

Hourly window

-9 ↑

6:30p

-8 ↑

7:30p

-8 ↑

8:30p

-7 ↑

9:30p

-6 ↑

10:30p

conditions build late — the 10:30p window peaks -6

Best of game Willson Contreras conv 23 · vs Johnson ⟷ Jorge Soler conv 19 · vs Suarez → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Ryan Johnson RHP · LAA

leak 83

1.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.72 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willson Contreras +330 C+ ●●●●○

2 Caleb Durbin +750 D ●●●○○

3 Masataka Yoshida +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Ranger Suarez LHP · BOS

leak 14

0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jorge Soler +400 D ●●●○○

2 Zach Neto +350 C ●●●○○

3 Josh Lowe +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 13.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ vs Johnson +330 0.236 · 90.5 · 10.1% 23.1% 23.9% F B O C+ 61

· LAA Zach Neto vs Suarez Edge +350 0.220 · 89.7 · 8.6% 18.2% 17.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· BOS Caleb Durbin vs Johnson +750 0.161 · 84.9 · 4.9% 23.1% 19.4% F B O D 44

· LAA Jorge Soler vs Suarez Edge +400 0.203 · 88.4 · 8.1% 20.0% 18.9% F B O D 48

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Suarez +750 0.136 · 89.5 · 7.0% 22.2% 9.5% F B O D 40

· BOS Masataka Yoshida vs Johnson Edge +525 0.112 · 88.6 · 4.0% 12.5% 10.9% F B O D 38

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Johnson Edge +305 0.166 · 89.8 · 9.1% 8.3% 10.5% F B O D 48

· LAA Nolan Schanuel COOL vs Suarez — 0.118 · 87.1 · 3.6% 8.3% 9.6% F B O D 32

· LAA Jo Adell COOL vs Suarez Edge +400 0.141 · 90.3 · 6.8% 9.1% 8.8% F B O D 39

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Johnson Edge +390 0.151 · 89.6 · 8.9% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 47

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Johnson +525 0.161 · 86.2 · 6.1% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 42

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Suarez Edge +575 0.145 · 87.4 · 6.9% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 37

· BOS Carlos Narvaez vs Johnson +575 0.080 · 91.3 · 7.4% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 36

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Suarez Edge — 0.134 · 89.6 · 6.0% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 35

· LAA Logan O'Hoppe COOL vs Suarez Edge +525 0.108 · 86.3 · 7.6% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.3% ← leak OFF 25.3% BRK 15.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R

11.1% 18.5% 17.8% 13.4% C+ 61 +330

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.1% 9.1% 12.1% 11.5% D 48 +305

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.7% 10.6% 6.6% 10.6% D 47 +390

112

Caleb Durbin R

2.7% 4.2% 1.8% 2.7% D 44 +750

132

Ceddanne Rafaela R

4.2% 12.1% 4.3% 5.3% D 42 +525

161

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

2.1% 3.6% 0.0% 2.0% D 38 +525

180

Carlos Narvaez R

8.9% 0.0% 6.5% 7.1% D 36 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.3% usage) carries Johnson's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 66.7% ← leak BRK 18.7% OFF 14.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Zach Neto R Edge

16.3% 10.3% 4.3% 13.1% C 51 +350

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jorge Soler R Edge

13.8% 12.0% 0.0% 11.8% D 48 +400

152

Josh Lowe L

12.5% 2.9% 4.8% 8.1% D 40 +750

155

Jo Adell R Edge

9.2% 6.2% 6.7% 8.0% D 39 +400

170

Oswald Peraza R Edge

6.9% 8.3% 13.0% 8.1% D 37 +575

196

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

7.5% 7.7% 0.0% 6.3% D 35 —

201

Logan O'Hoppe R Edge

10.1% 7.8% 15.4% 9.8% D 34 +525

208

Nolan Schanuel L

3.1% 1.8% 0.0% 2.3% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.7% usage) carries Suarez's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Durbin Neto Soler Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Johnson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Willson Contreras +330 · 61

Caleb Durbin +750 · 44

Jorge Soler +400 · 48

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:30p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 3 mph slight_out 66°F open

-9

↑

10 mph · in

79°F

6:30p

-8

↑

9 mph · in

75°F

7:30p

-8

↑

8 mph · in

72°F

8:30p

-7

↑

7 mph · in

71°F

9:30p

-6

↑

6 mph · in

70°F

10:30p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 66°F, wind 3 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Johnson · RHP 1.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.72 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 61 C+ +330 WARM 30 0.236 90.5 10.1% 36.1%vs RHP 404 20.5% 23.1% 23.9% 32

2 Wilyer Abreu 48 D +305 · 93 0.166 89.8 9.1% 12.0%vs RHP 402 12.0% 8.3% 10.5% 27

3 Jarren Duran 47 D +390 COOL 96 0.151 89.6 8.9% 33.3%vs RHP 396 13.6% 0.0% 12.2% 24

4 Caleb Durbin 44 D +750 WARM 112 0.161 84.9 4.9% 24.0%vs RHP 373 8.9% 23.1% 19.4% 32

5 Ceddanne Rafaela 42 D +525 COOL 132 0.161 86.2 6.1% 14.6%vs RHP 370 8.5% 0.0% 10.2% 43

6 Masataka Yoshida 38 D +525 WARM 161 0.112 88.6 4.0% 6.1%vs RHP 390 6.2% 12.5% 10.9% 14

7 Carlos Narvaez 36 D +575 WARM 180 0.080 91.3 7.4% 9.5%vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 11

vs Ranger Suarez · LHP 0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 51 C +350 · 77 0.220 89.7 8.6% 17.4%vs LHP 402 19.3% 18.2% 17.6% 29

2 Jorge Soler 48 D +400 WARM 89 0.203 88.4 8.1% 14.3%vs LHP 398 14.9% 20.0% 18.9% 19

3 Josh Lowe 40 D +750 WARM 152 0.136 89.5 7.0% 12.2% 388 11.8% 22.2% 9.5% 19

4 Jo Adell 39 D +400 COOL 155 0.141 90.3 6.8% 25.0%vs LHP 412 10.8% 9.1% 8.8% 31

5 Oswald Peraza 37 D +575 COOL 170 0.145 87.4 6.9% 29.4%vs LHP 386 7.9% 0.0% 9.5% 11

6 Vaughn Grissom 35 D — COOL 196 0.134 89.6 6.0% 0.0%vs LHP 396 7.7% 0.0% 5.7% 12

7 Logan O'Hoppe 34 D +525 COOL 201 0.108 86.3 7.6% 0.0%vs LHP 408 4.2% 0.0% 5.6% 19

8 Nolan Schanuel 32 D — COOL 208 0.118 87.1 3.6% 20.0%vs LHP 372 8.3% 8.3% 9.6% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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