TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ ATL

Suppressed air · 0.98×

NYM @ ATL

Truist Park · 12:30p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 3 mph slight_out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

12:30p

+0 ↑

1:30p

+0 ↑

2:30p

-1 ↑

3:30p

-1 ↑

4:30p

best window is early — 12:30p at +0

Best of game Mark Vientos conv 25 · vs Pérez ⟷ Matt Olson conv 17 · vs McLean → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Martín Pérez LHP · ATL

leak 86

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mark Vientos +400 D ●●●●○

2 Bo Bichette +500 D ●●●○○

3 Luis Torrens — D ●●○○○

FADE Nolan McLean RHP · NYM

leak 82

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +330 C ●●●○○

2 Ozzie Albies +525 D ●●○○○

3 Austin Riley +500 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 14.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 8.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ COOL vs McLean Edge +330 0.276 · 92.9 · 9.4% 8.3% 25.1% F B O C 58

· NYM Juan Soto COOL vs Pérez +350 0.262 · 93.0 · 10.0% 7.7% 15.6% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· NYM Mark Vientos COOL vs Pérez Edge +400 0.177 · 89.4 · 8.2% 28.6% 20.9% F B O D 49

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Pérez Edge +500 0.128 · 90.6 · 6.9% 21.4% 11.6% F B O D 41

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs McLean Edge +525 0.170 · 87.3 · 5.3% 16.7% 10.8% F B O D 41

· NYM Luis Torrens vs Pérez Edge — 0.100 · 88.2 · 5.5% 11.1% 13.1% F B O D 37

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Pérez +750 0.137 · 89.6 · 7.5% 14.3% 9.7% F B O D 41

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Pérez Edge +370 0.178 · 90.6 · 10.8% 0.0% 21.3% F B O D 45

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs McLean +500 0.143 · 90.7 · 7.7% 8.3% 9.4% F B O D 40

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs McLean Edge +400 0.194 · 91.0 · 9.9% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 48

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs McLean +750 0.144 · 86.4 · 5.7% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 33

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Pérez — 0.132 · — · 6.3% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 34

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs McLean Edge +700 0.134 · 90.4 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 35

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs McLean Edge +625 0.132 · 87.9 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 36

· NYM Brett Baty vs Pérez +950 0.084 · 88.7 · 7.3% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.0% ← leak OFF 31.5% BRK 8.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Juan Soto L

17.9% 5.6% 12.7% 14.2% C 57 +350

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Mark Vientos R Edge

9.5% 8.6% 12.8% 10.2% D 49 +400

101

Francisco Alvarez R Edge

18.5% 17.6% 15.7% 17.3% D 45 +370

136

Bo Bichette R Edge

4.7% 0.0% 13.0% 6.9% D 41 +500

137

Carson Benge L

8.1% 7.9% 8.3% 8.1% D 41 +750

166

Luis Torrens R Edge

4.8% 0.0% 5.6% 4.3% D 37 —

197

A.J. Ewing L

8.1% 0.0% 5.9% 5.9% D 34 —

200

Brett Baty L

7.6% 3.1% 11.9% 7.8% D 34 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.0% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.0% ← leak BRK 28.9% OFF 6.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

16.3% 10.5% 10.3% 14.0% C 58 +330

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Drake Baldwin L Edge

17.1% 23.8% 0.0% 15.8% D 48 +400

141

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.0% 1.2% 3.5% 4.0% D 41 +525

153

Austin Riley R

12.1% 11.6% 3.8% 11.0% D 40 +500

186

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.9% 6.7% 3.6% 6.3% D 36 +625

192

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

3.4% 5.1% 10.7% 5.2% D 35 +700

203

Mauricio Dubon R

4.2% 6.3% 4.7% 4.9% D 33 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.0% usage) carries McLean's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Vientos Bichette Olson Albies

Legend

attack side — vs Pérez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Mark Vientos +400 · 49

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 12:30p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 3 mph slight_out 72°F open

↑

8 mph · cross

81°F

12:30p · peak

↑

8 mph · cross

82°F

1:30p

↑

8 mph · cross

83°F

2:30p

-1

↑

9 mph · cross

84°F

3:30p

-1

↑

10 mph · cross

85°F

4:30p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 73°F, wind 3 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Martín Pérez · LHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 57 C +350 COOL 46 0.262 93.0 10.0% 15.4%vs LHP 397 19.2% 7.7% 15.6% 26

2 Mark Vientos 49 D +400 COOL 88 0.177 89.4 8.2% 23.8%vs LHP 410 14.1% 28.6% 20.9% 11

3 Francisco Alvarez 45 D +370 WARM 101 0.178 90.6 10.8% 25.0%vs LHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 21.3% 25

4 Bo Bichette 41 D +500 · 136 0.128 90.6 6.9% 21.1%vs LHP 385 10.3% 21.4% 11.6% 31

5 Carson Benge 41 D +750 COOL 137 0.137 89.6 7.5% 23.1%vs LHP 399 9.5% 14.3% 9.7% 40

6 Luis Torrens 37 D — WARM 166 0.100 88.2 5.5% 16.7%vs LHP 394 6.5% 11.1% 13.1% 13

7 A.J. Ewing 34 D — · 197 0.132 — 6.3% 11.1%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 35

8 Brett Baty 34 D +950 · 200 0.084 88.7 7.3% 0.0%vs LHP 415 3.7% 0.0% 6.4% 27

vs Nolan McLean · RHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 58 C +330 COOL 40 0.276 92.9 9.4% 30.0%vs RHP 410 20.7% 8.3% 25.1% 29

2 Drake Baldwin 48 D +400 COOL 90 0.194 91.0 9.9% 26.9%vs RHP 407 18.2% 0.0% 13.8% 27

3 Ozzie Albies 41 D +525 · 141 0.170 87.3 5.3% 13.8%vs RHP 383 13.8% 16.7% 10.8% 39

4 Austin Riley 40 D +500 COOL 153 0.143 90.7 7.7% 13.2%vs RHP 409 8.1% 8.3% 9.4% 25

5 Dominic Smith 36 D +625 COOL 186 0.132 87.9 6.4% 13.6%vs RHP 390 7.5% 0.0% 8.0% 24

6 Mike Yastrzemski 35 D +700 COOL 192 0.134 90.4 5.4% 14.6%vs RHP 374 7.3% 0.0% 8.3% 17

7 Mauricio Dubon 33 D +750 COOL 203 0.144 86.4 5.7% 13.5%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.