TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ TEX

Suppressed air · 0.98×

DET @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 3:30p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 3 mph slight_out 78°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+5 ↑

2:30p

+6 ↑

3:30p

+10 ↑

4:30p

+13 ↑

5:30p

+1 ↑

6:30p

conditions build late — the 5:30p window peaks +13

Best of game Kerry Carpenter conv 30 · vs Rocker ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 39 · vs Mize → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Kumar Rocker RHP · TEX

leak 22

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kerry Carpenter +330 C ●●●●●

2 Riley Greene +320 D ●●●○○

3 Dillon Dingler +525 C ●●●○○

FADE Casey Mize RHP · DET

leak 3

0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.96 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson +320 C ●●●●●

2 Jake Burger +370 D ●●○○○

3 Brandon Nimmo +350 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 22.9% · 14D pace 55.6% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ HOT vs Mize Edge +320 0.237 · 92.1 · 8.7% 55.6% 22.9% F B O C 55

· DET Kerry Carpenter vs Rocker Edge +330 0.246 · 91.0 · 9.1% 30.0% 30.8% F B O C 57

· DET Dillon Dingler vs Rocker +525 0.286 · 90.3 · 9.6% 16.7% 17.0% F B O C 59

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Rocker +425 0.198 · 90.2 · 10.3% 8.3% 17.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· DET Riley Greene vs Rocker Edge +320 0.164 · 92.0 · 10.1% 25.0% 18.1% F B O D 49

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Rocker Edge +575 0.132 · 88.7 · 7.4% 20.0% 10.7% F B O D 40

· TEX Jake Burger vs Mize +370 0.184 · 90.1 · 7.8% 9.1% 12.3% F B O D 43

· TEX Brandon Nimmo HOT vs Mize Edge +350 0.162 · 92.7 · 9.2% 11.1% 7.7% F B O D 42

· TEX Josh Jung vs Mize +575 0.148 · 90.3 · 6.1% 8.3% 9.0% F B O D 37

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Mize +750 0.138 · 88.9 · 5.9% 8.3% 8.2% F B O D 35

· TEX Evan Carter vs Mize Edge +525 0.147 · 87.9 · 6.9% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 37

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Rocker Edge +475 0.136 · 88.1 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 37

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Rocker Edge +850 0.095 · 84.1 · 3.8% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 28

· DET Matt Vierling COOL vs Rocker — 0.129 · 87.5 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 37

· TEX Alejandro Osuna vs Mize Edge +850 0.025 · 87.6 · — 0.0% 4.9% F B O D 15

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.6% ← leak BRK 38.4% OFF 5.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Dillon Dingler R

13.7% 12.1% 6.9% 12.5% C 59 +525

Kerry Carpenter L Edge

10.4% 11.4% 8.7% 10.4% C 57 +330

Spencer Torkelson R

16.9% 7.5% 22.2% 14.9% C 51 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Riley Greene L Edge

15.6% 15.4% 6.4% 13.7% D 49 +320

148

Colt Keith L Edge

6.6% 20.0% 4.7% 8.2% D 40 +575

165

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

9.7% 9.1% 2.2% 8.4% D 37 +475

177

Matt Vierling R

8.2% 3.0% 0.0% 5.2% D 37 —

216

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

2.0% 2.3% 0.0% 1.8% D 28 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.6% usage) carries Rocker's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.9% BRK 29.4% OFF 24.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Joc Pederson L Edge

16.1% 10.4% 4.9% 11.9% C 55 +320

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

122

Jake Burger R

7.7% 11.2% 11.5% 9.5% D 43 +370

135

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

10.7% 17.4% 16.7% 13.4% D 42 +350

167

Evan Carter L Edge

9.4% 5.9% 0.0% 7.1% D 37 +525

172

Josh Jung R

8.0% 3.4% 0.0% 5.7% D 37 +575

193

Ezequiel Duran R

8.2% 4.3% 0.0% 5.7% D 35 +750

227

Alejandro Osuna L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 15 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Mize's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Dingler Carpenter Torkelson Greene Keith Pederson

Legend

attack side — vs Rocker fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Joc Pederson +320 · 55

Kerry Carpenter +330 · 57

Riley Greene +320 · 49

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 2:30p · roof retractable

Park 0.98× Wind 3 mph slight_out 78°F retractable

↑

5 mph · out

90°F

2:30p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

93°F

3:30p

+10

↑

9 mph · out

92°F

4:30p

+13

↑

14 mph · out

89°F

5:30p · peak

↑

20 mph · slight_out

86°F

6:30p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 78°F, wind 3 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Kumar Rocker · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 59 C +525 · 35 0.286 90.3 9.6% 29.3%vs RHP 397 20.5% 16.7% 17.0% 38

2 Kerry Carpenter 57 C +330 · 43 0.246 91.0 9.1% 26.5%vs RHP 380 17.6% 30.0% 30.8% 30

3 Spencer Torkelson 51 C +425 WARM 76 0.198 90.2 10.3% 24.1%vs RHP 393 15.1% 8.3% 17.7% 28

4 Riley Greene 49 D +320 WARM 86 0.164 92.0 10.1% 15.5%vs RHP 397 11.5% 25.0% 18.1% 32

5 Colt Keith 40 D +575 COOL 148 0.132 88.7 7.4% 11.8%vs RHP 378 5.4% 20.0% 10.7% 31

6 Kevin Mcgonigle 37 D +475 · 165 0.136 88.1 7.8% 7.1%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 37

7 Matt Vierling 37 D — COOL 177 0.129 87.5 6.4% 9.4%vs RHP 377 8.7% 0.0% 6.7% 28

8 Zach Mckinstry 28 D +850 COOL 216 0.095 84.1 3.8% 7.0%vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 41

vs Casey Mize · RHP 0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.96 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 55 C +320 HOT 55 0.237 92.1 8.7% 29.2%vs RHP 392 20.0% 55.6% 22.9% 23

2 Jake Burger 43 D +370 · 122 0.184 90.1 7.8% 23.9%vs RHP 396 13.9% 9.1% 12.3% 30

3 Brandon Nimmo 42 D +350 HOT 135 0.162 92.7 9.2% 13.6%vs RHP 411 9.0% 11.1% 7.7% 23

4 Evan Carter 37 D +525 WARM 167 0.147 87.9 6.9% 14.3%vs RHP 377 10.2% 0.0% 12.0% 8

5 Josh Jung 37 D +575 WARM 172 0.148 90.3 6.1% 16.7%vs RHP 386 11.1% 8.3% 9.0% 30

6 Ezequiel Duran 35 D +750 COOL 193 0.138 88.9 5.9% 14.3%vs RHP 377 8.7% 8.3% 8.2% 42

7 Alejandro Osuna 15 D +850 · 227 0.025 87.6 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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