TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.91×

CWS @ CLE

Progressive Field · 2:00p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 4 mph cross 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

2:00p

+3 ↑

3:00p

+4 ↑

4:00p

+5 ↑

5:00p

+4 ↑

6:00p

conditions build late — the 5:00p window peaks +5

Best of game Kyle Manzardo conv 9 · vs Murphy ⟷ Miguel Vargas conv 29 · vs Bibee → edge: Miguel Vargas

ATTACK Chris Murphy LHP

leak 81

0.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.18 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Manzardo +400 D ●○○○○

2 Brayan Rocchio +950 D ●○○○○

3 Travis Bazzana +625 D ●○○○○

FADE Tanner Bibee RHP · CLE

leak 79

1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.58 · stingy — thin edge

1 Miguel Vargas +400 C+ ●●●●○

2 Colson Montgomery +330 C ●●●○○

3 Andrew Benintendi +400 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Miguel Vargas: 14.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Miguel Vargas ✶ vs Bibee +400 0.242 · 90.4 · 12.1% 33.3% 23.8% F B O C+ 61

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Bibee Edge +330 0.246 · 89.7 · 11.8% 16.7% 17.4% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Bibee Edge +400 0.185 · 89.4 · 9.8% 10.0% 12.2% F B O D 47

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Bibee Edge — 0.153 · 86.7 · 6.5% 8.3% 8.8% F B O D 37

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Bibee Edge +700 0.132 · 87.9 · 8.3% 9.1% 8.0% F B O D 39

· — Kyle Manzardo vs Murphy +400 0.165 · 89.0 · 9.0% 8.3% 8.7% F B O D 41

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Bibee +950 0.119 · 87.6 · 6.7% 7.7% 7.4% F B O D 35

· — Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Murphy Edge +950 0.126 · 86.2 · 4.1% 8.3% 5.1% F B O D 30

· CWS Luisangel Acuna vs Bibee — 0.034 · 89.3 · 6.5% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 29

· — Travis Bazzana COOL vs Murphy +625 0.190 · 88.7 · 5.5% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 38

· — Daniel Schneemann HOT vs Murphy — 0.136 · 88.1 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 35

· — Rhys Hoskins COOL vs Murphy Edge — 0.170 · 88.3 · 8.5% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 40

· — Chase Delauter vs Murphy +525 0.164 · 90.3 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 35

· — Steven Kwan COOL vs Murphy — 0.049 · 83.2 · 1.7% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 70.8% ← leak OFF 16.0% BRK 13.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Miguel Vargas R

16.2% 16.0% 10.6% 14.3% C+ 61 +400

Colson Montgomery L Edge

14.3% 13.3% 14.3% 14.1% C 58 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

13.7% 7.1% 6.2% 10.3% D 47 +400

156

Sam Antonacci L Edge

8.4% 0.0% 8.1% 7.0% D 39 +700

174

Tristan Peters L Edge

5.9% 0.0% 4.5% 4.7% D 37 —

194

Chase Meidroth R

5.1% 2.6% 6.5% 5.0% D 35 +950

213

Luisangel Acuna R

6.0% 0.0% 5.6% 5.0% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.8% usage) carries Bibee's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 51.1% ← leak FB 31.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

143

Kyle Manzardo L

10.3% 13.0% 11.7% D 41 +400

151

Rhys Hoskins R Edge

13.8% 7.5% 9.7% D 40 —

162

Travis Bazzana L

5.4% 6.7% 5.6% D 38 +625

189

Daniel Schneemann L

6.7% 11.0% 7.9% D 35 —

195

Chase Delauter L

7.1% 7.8% 6.5% D 35 +525

212

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

4.3% 3.5% 2.7% D 30 +950

226

Steven Kwan L

0.0% 0.6% 0.4% D 19 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (51.1% usage) carries Murphy's damage — BRK is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Vargas Montgomery

Legend

attack side — vs Murphy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Miguel Vargas +400 · 61

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 2:00p · roof open

Park 0.91× Wind 4 mph cross 72°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

77°F

2:00p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

76°F

3:00p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

75°F

4:00p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

75°F

5:00p · peak

↑

12 mph · slight_out

74°F

6:00p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 72°F, wind 4 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tanner Bibee · RHP 1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.58 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Miguel Vargas ✶ 61 C+ +400 WARM 29 0.242 90.4 12.1% 17.1%vs RHP 389 22.5% 33.3% 23.8% 37

2 Colson Montgomery 58 C +330 COOL 42 0.246 89.7 11.8% 25.0%vs RHP 398 26.9% 16.7% 17.4% 25

3 Andrew Benintendi 47 D +400 COOL 95 0.185 89.4 9.8% 18.5%vs RHP 391 15.8% 10.0% 12.2% 28

4 Sam Antonacci 39 D +700 COOL 156 0.132 87.9 8.3% 12.5%vs RHP 405 8.9% 9.1% 8.0% 39

5 Tristan Peters 37 D — WARM 174 0.153 86.7 6.5% 8.9%vs RHP 369 6.5% 8.3% 8.8% 35

6 Chase Meidroth 35 D +950 COOL 194 0.119 87.6 6.7% 14.7%vs RHP 376 6.9% 7.7% 7.4% 31

7 Luisangel Acuna 29 D — WARM 213 0.034 89.3 6.5% 8.3%vs RHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 12

vs Chris Murphy · LHP 0.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.18 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Manzardo 41 D +400 · 143 0.165 89.0 9.0% 10.0%vs LHP 389 11.5% 8.3% 8.7% 25

2 Rhys Hoskins 40 D — COOL 151 0.170 88.3 8.5% 16.7%vs LHP 378 10.8% 0.0% 7.3% 13

3 Travis Bazzana 38 D +625 COOL 162 0.190 88.7 5.5% 13.3%vs LHP 395 11.4% 0.0% 10.6% 31

4 Daniel Schneemann 35 D — HOT 189 0.136 88.1 7.5% 22.2%vs LHP 398 7.1% 0.0% 8.5% 21

5 Chase Delauter 35 D +525 WARM 195 0.164 90.3 6.0% 0.0%vs LHP 376 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 24

6 Brayan Rocchio 30 D +950 COOL 212 0.126 86.2 4.1% 9.1%vs LHP 382 6.1% 8.3% 5.1% 38

7 Steven Kwan 19 D — COOL 226 0.049 83.2 1.7% 0.0%vs LHP 381 1.3% 0.0% 5.7% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.